30 October 2026
Market Watch
Downgrade of global equities to a Core allocation
Summary
Event: We are downgrading global equities from Overweight to a Neutral/Core allocation. We continue to maintain a Neutral allocation to fixed income, Overweight on Gold and Underweight on Cash. There are more details in our Global Market Outlook publication on 30 October 2026.
What does the equity downgrade mean?
This downgrade implies a slightly lower allocation to global equities within a diversified portfolio. For our CIO Foundation Balanced portfolio, this would imply an equity allocation of 52.5%, down from 53.2%. We continue to expect positive returns for global equities in the coming 6-12 months, though equity investors may need to recalibrate expectations lower, compared with the 15-20% annualised gains experienced in the last few years. Our capital market assumptions still suggest a mid-to-high single digit annual returns over the next few years, consistent with a transition to a mid-cycle bull market. Consensus estimates point to 16% earnings growth for global equities in 2027, which should overcome various headwinds to deliver positive returns for equities over the next 12 months. Investors should thus, continue to maintain exposure to equities within a diversified portfolio.
In addition, we see a changing playbook to prepare for higher volatility, more active management and greater diversification, as discussed below.
What does it mean for regional equities positioning?
Within a global equities portfolio, we remain Overweight US and Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities, which are expected to deliver the highest earnings growth in 2027 amongst the major regions. This growth is led by the technology sector, which carries the largest weight in both regions. Within the diversified equities portfolio, we maintain Core allocations to Euro area equities, which offer lower valuations, and Japan equities, which is backed by a reflating economy. We are Underweight UK equities, where the sector composition offers lower growth prospects in 2027. Within the AxJ region, we are Overweight Taiwan equities, with attractive structural growth driven by its semiconductor industry. We are also Overweight India equities, which offers diversified non-tech growth drivers. Taiwan and India equities both generate attractive returns on equity. We maintain Core allocations to China equities, with low valuations, and Korea equities, with explosive earnings growth in its semiconductors industry, but volatile price movements. We are Underweight ASEAN, which offers relatively lower earnings growth.
Allocation to global equities decrease to 52.5% from 53.2% for our CIO Foundation Balanced portfolio
Foundation tactical asset allocation

Allocations in the chart are rounded to the nearest whole number
Our forecasts imply 9% upside in the S&P 500 over the next 12m, as of 29 October 2026
Index forecasts

* Target prices created as of 30 October 2026, using the preceding session’s closing prices
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
What are the implications for equity sectors?
We are Overweight these sectors globally: US information technology, US healthcare, US financials, US materials, Europe ex-UK financials, and Japan financials.
A framework we use is to break the market into four key sector building blocks. Tech is the largest block, encompassing the Information Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Put differently, the segment spans five major industries: semiconductors, hardware, internet, software, and IT services. Within the US market, we expect this segment to deliver c.30% earnings growth in 2027, extending the strong momentum seen in 2026.
Financials and Real Estate are the next building block, comprising these two sectors. We expect this segment to continue delivering low-teens earnings growth in 2027, supported by resilient economic activity and healthy credit trends.
Resources include companies across four sectors: Industrials, Materials, Energy, and Utilities. We expect the segment to generate 10-15% earnings growth in 2027, although Energy is likely to remain the largest drag on overall growth due to tougher comparisons and softer energy price assumptions for 2027.
Healthcare & Others consists primarily of Healthcare and Consumer Staples. We expect mid-teen earnings growth for the segment in 2027, with a rebound in healthcare earnings representing a potential upside surprise.
Our Overweight sector exposures are drawn from each of the four key blocks above. Unlike the last few years, with concentrated gains from Tech providing market leadership, we see our downgrade in global equities also reflecting a broadening in market leadership towards each of the other sector blocks apart from Tech.
As structural themes such as AI transition from the rapid buildout phase towards monetisation, diversified exposure across sectors and regions should become increasingly important.
What are the implications for equity opportunistic ideas?
We have opportunistic ideas on Global High-Dividend equities, US healthcare, Euro area banks, MSCI Switzerland and Japan banks. The selection represents a more defensive stance currently, with an average beta of below 1 relative to global equities (MSCI AC World), but attractive drivers nonetheless, for each of the ideas.
Global High-Dividend offers higher-income equity allocation with historically lower volatility than global equities. US healthcare is supported by wider adoption of obesity treatments, advances in oncology and innovative medical devices, that support earnings growth. Euro area banks continue to see steady earnings growth adding to their excess capital, which is being returned to shareholders via attractive dividend and share buyback yields. Japan banks continue to enjoy net margin expansion from BoJ policy normalisation, as well as corporate governance improvements. MSCI Switzerland is a newly initiated idea for investors seeking defensive exposure. Healthcare and consumer staples accounts for more than half the index weight, providing exposure to relatively resilient demand that is more insulated from economic cycles and AI trends. It also has a sizeable financial sector supported by steady wealth management growth and well-capitalised insurers with disciplined underwriting and resilient premium income.
US and Asia ex-Japan would continue to lead in earnings growth in 2027
2026 and 2027 consensus earnings growth estimates for MSCI equity regional indices

Global equities continue to be supported by strong earnings growth in 2027, led by technology and healthcare sectors
2026 and 2027 consensus earnings growth estimates for MSCI AC World sectors

Our opportunistic ideas have a more defensive stance on average
Equity opportunistic ideas

We see the case for more active management in a mid-cycle transition, as higher market dispersion should create greater opportunities for active sector and stock selection, particularly as leadership within equities evolves.
What are the implications of higher equity market volatility?
A more uncertain political backdrop and potentially maturing growth rates in certain market segments may contribute to more frequent bouts of market volatility. Higher volatility presents an opportunity to use structured strategies to gain exposure to equities. Such strategies may be used to generate income or to gain exposure at a discounted entry price. Investors can also consider strategies that are structured to return principal or partial principal at maturity.
What alternative strategies are suited to a regime of moderating equity market returns?
Investors can consider alternative strategies such as hedge fund strategies or private markets, for those with the capacity to accept some illiquidity.
Equity long/short hedge fund strategies would retain growth participation with less market exposure. Fund managers buy companies they expect to outperform and short those they expect to underperform, seeking to earn the difference between the two, and benefit even as total equity market returns are moderating.
Within private markets, private equity provides a means to higher returns with the effects of an illiquidity premium. Meanwhile, infrastructure offers differentiated exposure to structural growth opportunities, where contracted long-term revenues reduce dependence on equity-market sentiment.
What are the implications on fixed income and FX markets?
Bonds: This year’s surge in bond yields means bonds now offer a hedge against any equity market weakness. We believe the 3-7-year part of the US bond yield curve offers the best hedge against any equity sell-off caused by AI-related growth worries. This part of the bond curve has priced in most Fed rate hike expectations, which could reverse if growth concerns return. Meanwhile, we favour US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a hedge against any fuel price-led inflation scare.
Credit: For corporate bonds, adopting a defensive stance in a volatile environment typically involves: i) increasing credit quality, favouring higher-rated issuers; and ii) moving up the capital structure, by reducing exposure to subordinated debt and favouring secured debt. From a sector perspective, large, diversified banks, utilities, and quasi-sovereigns tend to be more defensive, particularly relative to cyclical sectors, such as metals and mining, exploration, and technology.
FX: We favour bearish AUD/JPY as a tactical hedge against any equity market correction. Review of 21 past S&P500 correction sessions (2010-2025) shows AUD weakened against USD in 86% of cases, while JPY strengthened against USD in 67%, supporting our bearish AUD/JPY outlook during any equity market stress.
— Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer (CIO)
— Manpreet Gill, CIO, EMEA
— Raymond Cheng, CFA, CPA, CIO, North Asia
— Sundeep Gantori, CFA, CAIA, CIO, Equities
— Jonathan Liang, CFA, CIO, Fixed Income & FX
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
— Rajat Bhattacharya, Senior Investment Strategist
We expect returns for global equities to moderate from the 15-20% annualised gains seen in the last few years
Annual returns for MSCI AC World index

The surge in bond yields this year means bonds now offer a hedge against any equity market weakness
US 10-year government bond yields

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