2020 economic and market strategy views

A view on the year ahead – market strategy and economic outlook.

In our view, the economic outlook for 2020 will be a year of the ‘slow-motion’ slowdown. We forecast global growth at 3.3 per cent, slightly higher than our 3.1 per cent estimate for 2019. China is likely to stabilise at the minimum rate required to double GDP in 2020 versus 2010 (the official target), before weakening further in 2021. We expect the US economy to decelerate further to 1.8 per cent in 2020 and Euro-area growth to remain subdued.

Global market sentiment improves as prospects for a preliminary US-China trade compromise have improved; the risk of a no-deal hard Brexit has receded; and the probability of an imminent US recession has fallen. Risks remain though, as low global growth and inflation leave markets vulnerable to a relapse in sentiment. We believe that 10Y US Treasury yields will be capped at 2 per cent in 2020, and there are good opportunities in select Asian debt markets.

2020 Economic Outlook

David Mann, Global Chief Economist, forecasts that 2020 will be a year of soft but stabilising growth for the global economy. Cyclical positives for global growth should counter three long-term structural drags: debt, demographics and deglobalisation.

2020 Economic Outlook

David Mann, Global Chief Economist, forecasts that 2020 will be a year of soft but stabilising growth for the global economy. Cyclical positives for global growth should counter three long-term structural drags: debt, demographics and deglobalisation.

2020 Market Strategy Outlook

Eric Robertsen, Global Head FX, Rates and Credit Research; and Head of Global Macro Strategy talks about the global macro investment strategy. Global risk sentiment has improved as many of the tail risks that weighed on markets in Q3 have abated.

2020 Market Strategy Outlook

Eric Robertsen, Global Head FX, Rates and Credit Research; and Head of Global Macro Strategy talks about the global macro investment strategy. Global risk sentiment has improved as many of the tail risks that weighed on markets in Q3 have abated.

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