Over the past 20-30 years, technology has helped developing economies climb the income league tables. With the benefit of globalisation, they have been able to adopt innovations from developed markets, helping them to improve health, raise education levels and accelerate urbanisation.
Nowhere has this been more evident than in the rise of emerging markets (EMs) in global trade. Technology-driven improvements in communication and infrastructure have helped these markets capitalise on their cheap-labour advantage and integrate into global supply chains.
Fears over robotics and 3D printing
However, many now fear that this technology-driven growth burst is behind us. They argue that new digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and 3D printing pose three main threats to EMs:
First, that skills-biased technological change, such as robotics, favours a more urban and educated workforce and will result in growing unemployment and rising income inequality in EMs – especially those where a large proportion of the population work in sectors, with limited access to technology.
We think the threats are likely exaggerated
Second, that the rise of new technologies such as robotics and 3D printing will undermine the cheap-labour advantage that has been the bedrock of growth for many emerging markets over the last 20 years.
Third, that, if EMs lose their advantage in global manufacturing chains, they will not be able to compensate for the loss of growth or jobs by growing their service sectors, as most services are non-tradable and, in fact, some services might themselves become automated.
While such arguments are persuasive, we think the threats are likely exaggerated.
Technology will boost the service sector
True, robotics will disrupt the global manufacturing chain, but it will take time for the price of capable robots to fall to the level of wages in low-income emerging economies such as the Philippines or Vietnam. Also, it is important to note that EM suppliers usually offer a complete suite of services, including supplier management, packaging and delivery, only some of which can be replaced by robots.
While some manufacturing jobs will be lost to automation, new technology makes services more tradable, allowing these to become the main driver of growth. Modern services such as IT and finance, and professional business services, such as marketing, design and management support, claim much higher productivity levels and wages.
The advantages of technology adoption in emerging markets are many
Technological innovations also often create new service sector opportunities. For example, the success of mobile money, or M-PESA, in Kenya has spawned a host of related services, including some aimed at helping parents keep track of school-fee payments.
The advantages of technology adoption in EMs are many. Technology is increasingly being used to save lives and improve education. For example, large-scale open online courses are being used to train new nurses in Kenya, while digital phone photography is helping to help detect cervical cancer in Zambia.
Countries can leapfrog old technologies
The fall in the price of digital technology is yet another opportunity as it allows countries to leapfrog old technologies, reducing the cost of physical infrastructure, such as retail outlets and bank branches. Smartphones, on-line shopping and mobile banking are already making a big difference.
New technologies can also help EMs overcome resource constraints and make economic growth more sustainable, with continued improvements in new energy sources, both fossil fuels and renewables at reasonable prices.
New technologies offer greater opportunities than risks for EMs and could even help level the playing field with developed economies
On balance, new technologies offer greater opportunities than risks for EMs and could even help level the playing field with developed economies.
However, several hurdles to technology adoption still need to be overcome. These include any instability in the macroeconomic or business environment that discourages investment in technology. Lack of infrastructure, in particular the lack of power, remains a big hurdle in many developing economies, as does the lack of education.
While the average duration of schooling in countries such as the US, Germany and the UK is around 12 to 13 years, in Ethiopia and Gambia it is still as low as two to three years.
A focus on improving education, reducing labour and product market inflexibility and providing basic infrastructure will be crucial, if EMs are to make the most of the opportunities offered by technology. For those that do, the potential benefits are huge.