- More than 80 per cent of business leaders are considering locating manufacturing in Asia, Africa or the Middle East in the next five to 10 years
- Most business leaders acknowledge the need for sustainable trade practices, but only 34 per cent rank it as a top three priority
Singapore/London — Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch – new research by Standard Chartered – projects that global exports will almost double from USD17.4tn to USD29.7tn over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade.
13 markets driving future trade growth:
|Market||Exports in 2030 (USD)||Average annual growth rate||Key corridors|
|Bangladesh||51bn||7%||India, UAE, USA|
|Hong Kong||939bn||5.7%||Japan, Mainland China, USA|
|India||564bn||7.6%||Hong Kong, Singapore, USA|
|Indonesia||348bn||8.1%||India, Mainland China, USA|
|Kenya||10bn||7.6%||Pakistan, Uganda, USA|
|Mainland China||5,023bn||7.1%||Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam|
|Malaysia||499bn||8.3%||India, Mainland China, Singapore|
|Nigeria||112bn||9.7%||India, Indonesia, Mainland China|
|Saudi Arabia||354bn||7.6%||India, Mainland China, South Korea|
|Singapore||687bn||7.4%||Indonesia, Mainland China, Malaysia|
|South Korea||972bn||7.1%||India, Mainland China, Vietnam|
|UAE||299bn||6.1%||India, Mainland China, Singapore|
|Vietnam||535bn||7.0%||India, Mainland China, USA|
The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.
Global trade will be reshaped by five key trends: the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices; a push for more inclusive participation; greater risk diversification; more digitisation and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets. Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.
Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intraregional – they will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia- Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.
Asia, Africa and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains.
Enabling sustainable supply chains
The research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
Standard Chartered, in line with its commitment to help make global trade more sustainable and drive the transition to Net Zero, launched a Sustainable Trade Finance proposition to enable companies to build more sustainable and resilient supply chains. In addition, we offer a suite of sustainable finance solutions to channel capital towards helping companies achieve their Net Zero goals.
Simon Cooper, CEO Corporate & Institutional Banking and Europe & the Americas, Standard Chartered, said: “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.
He added: “Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade. This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains.”
— ENDS —
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About the Future of Trade 2030
This report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, provides a view on global trade over the next decade and identifies five themes as well as 13 key markets that will define the way ahead. The study is based on an analysis of qualitative and quantitative information from various sources, including historical trade data and trade projections until 2030. All trade figures used in this report are for trade of goods only and do not include trade in services.
A survey of over 500 C-level and senior leaders from corporations globally was conducted to understand business growth aspirations, perceived trade corridor opportunities and priorities in capturing growth in the future trade environment. Interviews with senior leaders from Standard Chartered were also conducted to understand key forward-looking initiatives the organisation is currently undertaking within the trade landscape, alongside discussions with external trade experts to obtain their perspectives on the five trends for the future of global trade.
Find out more here.