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2011 will see multi-speed recovery of global economy
According to Standard Chartered's year-end review of the global economy, 2011 will be characterised by an uneven recovery, leading different authorities to adopt diverging policies. This may raise conflicts and uncertainties, but also bring opportunities. Economic fundamentals vary considerably across the globe, and while the underlying trend is a global recovery, it varies considerably in scale. It will still be a tale of two worlds: a buoyant East contrasting with a sluggish West.
We expect the world economy to grow further in size, from USD 62.3trn in 2010 to USD 64.7trn in 2011. Global trade has also recovered, and should continue to do so. After growth of 3.7% this year, we expect the world economy to grow 2.9% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012. The IMF, by contrast, expects growth of 3.3% in 2011 and 3.7% in 2012.
Gerard Lyons, Standard Chartered's Chief Economist and Head of Global Research, commented, "Sometimes people talk about the glass being half-full or half-empty. In terms of the world economy, our view is that the glass is two-thirds full. But in 2011, much attention will be on the one-third of the glass that is empty, namely the West. During 2010, the emerging economies, which represent one-third of global GDP, accounted for more than two-thirds of its growth. This should be repeated in 2011. We foresee a sluggish Western recovery alongside growth in the East that might be slower than in 2010, but which is solid and sustainable."
Notes to Editors
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