1 August 2025
Weekly Market View
Taking advantage of the USD rebound
The USD has rebounded from oversold levels on the back of US trade deals, resilient economic and corporate earnings data and a relatively hawkish Fed. We flagged a potential USD short squeeze in our H2 outlook in June.
We would now use the USD rebound to reduce any excessive exposure to US assets and rotate to relatively inexpensive Asia ex-Japan stocks and EM local currency bonds.
In Asia ex-Japan, we are overweight on China and South Korea equities. The region should benefit from easing trade uncertainty and supportive domestic policies.
In bonds, we prefer shorter maturities, given the risk of a delay in Fed rate cuts. We are bullish on short-duration US high yield corporate bonds.
Upcoming US job market data, including July’s payrolls due tonight, will be closely watched. It will take a decisively weaker job market in the next couple of months for the Fed to cut rates in September.
Rotate to China, South Korea equities: Domestic policy support, US trade truce/deals
Maintain 5-7-year maturity on USD bonds: Treasury issuance to cause volatility in long-term bonds
Rangebound USD/JPY: Fed and BoJ both taking a cautious approach to monetary policy
Charts of the week: USD breaking higher?
The dollar has broken above its 100DMA resistance, helped by trade deals, a hawkish Fed and strong corporate earnings
US dollar index (DXY) and 50-, 100- and 200-DMA resistance
Consensus MSCI US index earnings growth estimates
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Taking advantage of the USD rebound
Investment Strategy: The USD has rebounded from oversold levels on the back of US trade deals, resilient economic and corporate earnings data and a relatively hawkish Fed. We flagged a potential USD short squeeze in our H2 outlook in June. We would now use the USD rebound to reduce any excessive exposure to US assets and rotate to relatively inexpensive Asia ex-Japan stocks and EM local currency bonds. In Asia ex-Japan, we are overweight on China and South Korea equities. The region should benefit from easing trade uncertainty and supportive domestic policies. In bonds, we prefer shorter maturities, given the risk of a delay in Fed rate cuts as inflation rises in the short term due to the tariffs. We are bullish on short-duration US high yield corporate bonds.
Trade deals to ease uncertainty. The US has reached tentative agreements with major trade partners, with the main exception of China and India, with new tariffs implemented from 7 August. Partners with sizable trade surplus vs. the US such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea will face a 15% baseline tariff, while most of southeast Asia faces 19-20% tariff and Canada’s exports not covered under USMCA face 35%. Meanwhile, the US has extended a truce with Mexico for 90 days, with a similar extension vs. China likely to follow. While legalising these agreements will likely take months, if not years, they reduce a major uncertainty clouding global markets.
Tariffs to raise near-term US inflation. A 15% baseline tariff against key allies is higher than the previously anticipated 10% base rate. The Yale Budget Lab estimated that the tariffs, after accounting for consumption shifts, will raise the average US tariff rate to 17.5% (highest since 1934), raise short-run consumer prices by 1.8% and cut US real GDP growth by 0.5% each in 2025 and 2026. This puts the Fed in a dilemma.
Rising chance of delayed Fed rate cuts. This week, Fed Chair Powell, after holding rates for the fifth straight meeting, declined to commit to a rate cut in September, citing inflation
uncertainty. Two of the 11 Fed policymakers voted for rate cuts, the first such double-dissent in over three decades. The Fed will have two monthly inflation and employment reports before its September decision. It will likely take a decisive slowdown in the job market in the next two months for the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Money markets are pricing just over 40% chance of a September cut, down from 90% at the start of July.
Trade deals, hawkish Fed lifts USD, creating opportunities. The USD index (DXY) has broken above the 100DMA resistance around 100 following a short squeeze from oversold levels. This was aided by US trade deals with key partners without any retaliation, robust economic and corporate earnings reports (see pages 3 and 6) and prospect of delayed Fed rate cuts. Strong momentum could drive DXY 2% higher towards May’s high of 102. However, easing trade uncertainty, robust earnings and bullish long-term quant models suggest using the ongoing USD rebound to average into equities, especially into relatively inexpensive ex-US markets.
Rotating to Asia ex-Japan equities and EM local bonds. The US trade agreements with EU and key Asian partners and some tariff exemptions for Brazil reduces a major uncertainty for Emerging Markets reliant on global trade. In Asia ex-Japan, we are overweight on China and South Korea equities. China’s earnings outlook is likely to improve as authorities tackle overcapacity and excessive price competition. We particularly like China’s technology sector, which is backed by state policy. South Korea’s efforts to boost shareholder returns, combined with a US trade deal that puts tariff on par with that vs. Japan, is positive for the equity market over a 6-12-month horizon.
Prefer shorter maturity USD bonds. US tariffs are likely to revive short-term inflation, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. Focussing on relatively shorter maturities in bonds is important in this environment. We prefer the 5-7-year maturity bucket in USD bonds. We would also add to short-duration US high yield corporate bonds, which are backed by resilient corporate fundamentals and are less sensitive to US rate moves.
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Improving US growth, consumer confidence; easing trade tensions between US, EU and China
(-) factors: Falling US job openings, rising US inflation pressures, elevated US-India tensions, Fed’s hawkish-tilt
US consumer confidence improved in July, beating expectations, while US goods trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in June
US Conference Board consumer confidence and goods trade deficit
German IFO business expectations improved to the highest level since April 2023, but remained below estimates
German IFO business expectations
China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both fell more than expected in July
China official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
Top client questions
What are the market implications of recent US trade deals?
Our view: The latest agreements are like to reduce trade uncertainty. We prefer Asia-ex-Japan region within a globally diversified equity allocation, particularly South Korea and China markets. We are also bullish Europe’s industrial sector.
Rationale: The US trade deals with most large trade partners, secured ahead of President Trump’s 1 August deadline (12 Aug for talks with China), are positive for the US in protecting domestic businesses.
The US-EU trade deal provides incremental support to European markets as the tariff rate is not as high as feared. However, markets have already priced this in – equities have been flat since the two sides reached an agreement on 27 July. The focus now moves to the US’s investigations on Section 232, which may result in an extended levy on European exports to the US. This could be a headwind for European equities, because the US accounted for 21% of EU’s exports in 2024. Moreover, tariffs and geopolitical tensions have weakened Europe’s earnings guidance. EPS growth projection for Q2 25 is muted at 1.8% y/y (source: LSEG I/B/E/S), with 37% of STOXX 600 companies having reported as of 29 July.
That said, Europe’s industrial sector is the bright spot within the region, supporting our opportunistic idea. The consensus expects 4.5% earnings growth in Q2 25, fourth highest across all the sectors in the index. More importantly, the sector is a beneficiary from rising defence spending and the US-EU trade deal, because of the “zero-for-zero” tariff policy i.e. the elimination of tariffs by both the US and the EU across strategic products, including aircrafts and aircraft parts.
In our globally diversified allocation, we continue to favour Asia ex-Japan equities. We are Overweight South Korea within the region. The trade agreement earlier this week lifts a major uncertainty. We continue to expect supportive measures from the government to boost shareholder returns and further fiscal stimulus, supporting a sustained valuation re-rating of South Korean equities.
We are also Overweight China equities within Asia ex-Japan. Slowing macro data and lack of policy stimulus at the latest Politburo meeting has led to consolidation. That said, such consolidations are opportunities to add exposure as the government steps up efforts to end price wars and tackle excessive capacity. There is still potential for fiscal measures ahead of a series of official meetings in the coming months, e.g. Beidaihe meeting in early-August.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
Europe’s industrial sector is likely to see healthy EPS growth, with tailwind from “zero-for-zero” tariff policy
Consensus Q2 25 earnings projections for sectors in Europe’s STOXX600 index
Supportive measures from the Korean government will likely fuel a sustained valuation rerating of South Korean stocks
Relative valuation for MSCI Korea index vs MSCI Asia ex-Japan index
Top client questions (cont’d)
The US Treasury plans to borrow over USD 1tn in Q3, significantly above the amount announced in April. How would this impact the US long term bond yield?
Our view: We believe interest rate volatility will persist. We will add to bonds if the US 10-year government bond yield spikes above 4.5%. Our preferred bond tenor remains 5-7 years.
Rationale: The significant increase in planned debt issuance raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. Yet, there has been limited impact on US government bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield showing little movement following recent announcements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the US Treasury aims to avoid large increases in long-term debt issuance to manage borrowing costs amid rising long-term yields. Despite an expected increase in the supply of shorter-term bonds, market sentiment and demand remain strong. For instance, the US Treasury conducted a USD 44bn auction on Tuesday, where the 7-year government bond auction saw a bid/cover ratio of 2.8x, the highest since November 2012, reflecting robust demand.
Currently, the average maturity of US government bonds stands at 72 months, down from a peak of 75 months in May 2023, yet significantly higher than the low of 49 months during the global financial crisis. Historically, the US government has increased short-term debt during crises, and Bessent’s strategy of issuing short-term government bonds for flexibility, while maintaining market stability, is not unprecedented.
While the 10-year bond yield could rise to 4.5-4.6% due to market concerns about trade, inflation, and the government’s fiscal position, we believe this would present an opportunity to lock in yields. Our preferred tenor of 5-7 years offers the best risk-adjusted returns, balancing attractive yields with fiscal and inflation risks. Investors wary of interest rate volatility could consider our opportunistic bullish idea: short duration US HY bonds. The short duration HY bonds are less sensitive to interest rate volatility and exhibit lower price volatility and drawdowns compared to both US HY and investment grade corporate bonds, thereby offering the prospect of better risk-adjusted returns.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
The current average maturity of US government bonds is high compared to history. The US Treasury has the flexibility to use shorter tenor debt to lower interest cost
Average maturity of US government bonds
Top client questions (cont’d)
How have US Q2 earnings fared? Are there any insights into the upcoming semiconductor sector earnings?
Our view: Strong US earnings support our constructive view on equities. This has positive implications for the semiconductor industry earnings. Add to US technology sector on pullbacks – technical indicators are stretched in the short-term.
Rationale: The US Q2 earnings have been positive at the half-way mark of the earnings season. All sectors have delivered a positive surprise except for real estate. Consensus 2025 earnings growth for the S&P500 has been revised up to 9.3%, versus 8.5% at the start of the reporting season, especially in our preferred sectors of technology, communication and financials. This upward revision is a function of Q2 earnings beating expectations and strong guidance. 2026 earnings growth estimate also remains stable at 14.0%.
Major internet and technology companies continue to invest significantly into AI infrastructure and capabilities, raising their capex guidance. This has positive implications for the semiconductor industry and other companies involved in the AI infrastructure supply chain. We remain positive on the broad technology sector over 6-12 months. Add to the US technology sector on pullbacks.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
Consensus 2025 earnings growth has been revised higher for US equities, including for our preferred technology, communication and financial sectors
Consensus 2025 earnings growth estimates for S&P500 sectors as of 31 July vs. 1 July
What is the USDJPY outlook after the latest Fed and BoJ meetings?
Our View: The Fed and BoJ are both taking a cautious approach on monetary policy. Play the range in USD/JPY between 147 and 152.
Rationale: The USD index (DXY) is testing 100-day moving average (MA) and is close to our 3-month target. The Fed held rates and pared back rate cut expectations for September, while Q2 GDP growth surprised to the upside and US core PCE inflation accelerated to 0.3% m/m. We expect the USD to be well supported for now, with next resistance at 102. Further rally will depend upon the final trade settlements with other major economies (like China, Mexico, Canada and India), more clarity on the investment pledges made by the EU, Japan and South Korea.
Despite the recent tariff deal between the US and Japan, the BoJ continues to be cautious and held rates at 0.5%. The bank also raised FY2025 core consumer inflation forecasts from 2.2% to 2.7% but noted economic risks are on the downside for FY 2025 and 2026. This strengthened the yen briefly, but this is likely to balance out with the firmer greenback in the coming weeks. We see USD/JPY rangebound between 147-152 in the near term.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/JPY to remain rangebound in the near-term
USD/JPY and technical levels
Top client questions (cont’d)
Do you expect the silver rally to continue?
Our View: The risk/reward in silver prices is now less compelling. A more attractive entry point could emerge if prices correct to the 100-day moving average near USD 34/oz
Rationale: Silver has finally outpaced gold after years of underperformance, with YTD gains at 29% versus gold’s 25%. This surge is due to a tight physical market, attractive relative valuations, an ongoing recovery in global industrial production, and, to a lesser extent, heightened US policy uncertainty, which has revived safe-haven demand.
However, much of the easy upside may now be behind us. The gold/silver ratio, which spiked above 100 in April for only the third time since the 1970s, offered investors a rare and historically profitable entry point. At such extremes, silver has delivered positive returns with near-perfect consistency. However, with the ratio now down to 88, closer to its 10-year average of 81, silver’s relative value appeal has diminished, and the risk-reward profile, particularly in the near-term, is not compelling. We expect Gold to remain rangebound near USD 3,400/oz, barring a clear deterioration in US growth, which also limits further upside potential for silver.
Silver’s longer-term outlook is more mixed. Physical demand has outstripped supply for five consecutive years and industry forecasts suggest the deficit will persist. With over half of silver’s demand tied to industrial use, a continued global production rebound should offer support. However, there are emerging headwinds. Growth in global photovoltaic installations, a major source of silver demand, is expected to stagnate in 2026 amid shifts in China’s policy. Unlike gold, silver also lacks meaningful central bank demand and is more vulnerable to trade-related growth shocks.
Given its higher volatility and strong beta to the global cycle, silver is better treated as a tactical rather than a strategic asset. A more compelling re-entry point could emerge if prices correct to the 100-day moving average near USD 34/oz, where the gold/silver ratio may again approach 100, should gold remains rangebound near USD 3,400/oz, restoring a more asymmetric setup for upside exposure.
— Tay Qi Xiu, Portfolio Strategist
The gold/silver ratio spiked above 100 in April for the third time since the 1970s
Gold/silver ratio and the 10-year moving average
At the current gold/silver ratio, the risk/reward in the near-term for silver is not compelling
Period-ahead min/max/average returns when gold/silver ratio is between 85 and 90
Silver demand is linked to global production
World industrial production and silver industrial demand
Top client questions (cont’d)
What are the potential implications of the US GENIUS Act?
Our View: The US GENIUS Act should support demand for US government debt (T-bills) demand, the USD and digital assets.
Rationale: The signing of the Guaranteeing Essential National Infrastructure in US-Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act marks the first comprehensive U.S. framework for stablecoins, aiming to bring oversight, security and confidence to the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market. The law limits issuance to regulated financial institutions, mandates full 1:1 reserves backed by US government bills or other low-risk assets with a maturity of 93 days or less, and enforces strict anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism measures, placing the U.S. alongside global peers such as the EU’s MiCA regime and Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance.
This has positive implications for US government debt (T-bills) demand, the USD and digital assets.
With around USD 260.7bn of stablecoins in circulation, according to Artemis, this legislation is expected to further legitimise the industry, fueling broader adoption across both retail and traditional finance. As usage expands, stablecoin issuers’ demand for US T-bills could surge on the back of reserve demand from stablecoin issuers and offer some support to the USD as global adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins accelerates.
However, the act also introduces new risks. In periods of market stress, selling pressure on stablecoins could result in knock-on selling pressure on US debt reserves, temporarily disrupting supply-demand dynamics in T-bill markets, with potential knock-on effects on asset prices and liquidity conditions.
— Anthony Naab, CFA, Investment Strategist
The US GENIUS Act should help boost demand for US Treasury bills, the USD and digital assets
US 12-month Treasury bill yield
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,452
Technical indicators for key markets as of 31 Jul close
Investor diversity in global equities stays below threshold
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 31 Jul close
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As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. 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