21 November 2025
Weekly Market View
Tech sector clarity amidst the data fog
As a selloff in the tech sector deepens on valuations concerns, we believe it’s opportune to focus on the sector’s strong revenue and earnings. The sector’s AI-driven growth prospects should offset near-term uncertainty caused by a potential delay in Fed rate cuts.
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report for September, delayed release of October data and above-target inflation have led many Fed policymakers to question the need for another rate cut on 10 December, raising market volatility.
We expect the Fed to eventually cut rates again by Q1 2026 as a rising jobless rate and alternative data suggests the job market is slowing.
Strong corporate earnings fundamentals and eventual Fed rate cuts sustain the case for an economic soft-landing. This suggests the pullback in risk assets, especially in tech sector equities in the US and China, is presenting opportunities to add exposure.
Opportunity to add US, China tech sector equities – strong AI-led revenue, earnings
Stay with 5-7-year maturity in US bonds – balance between yield and inflation risks
USD/JPY upside capped – BoJ intervention risk, eventual BoJ rate hike
Charts of the week: Solid tech outlook vs. delayed rate cuts
The tech sector’s robust AI-driven earnings outlook is likely to offset worries about valuation and likely delayed Fed cuts
Market estimates of Fed median rate for end-2025 and 2026*
Consensus 2025-26 earnings estimates of US equity sectors
Source: Bloomberg, LSEG I/B/E/S, Standard Chartered; *Based on money markets
Editorial
Tech sector clarity amidst the data fog
Strategy summary: As a selloff in the tech sector deepens on valuations concerns, we believe it’s opportune to focus on the sector’s strong revenue and earnings, headlined this week by semiconductor industry leader Nvidia. The sector’s AI-driven growth prospects should offset near-term uncertainty caused by a potential delay in Fed rate cuts. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report for September, delayed release of October data and above-target inflation have led many Fed policymakers to question the need for another rate cut on 10 December, raising market volatility.
We expect the Fed to eventually cut rates again by Q1 next year as a rising jobless rate and alternative data suggests the job market continues to slow. Strong corporate earnings fundamentals and eventual Fed rate cuts sustain the case for an economic soft-landing. This suggests the pullback in risk assets, especially in tech sector equities in the US and China, is presenting opportunities to add exposure.
Strong jobs data, data fog raise doubts over a December Fed rate cut. The delayed September jobs report showed a stronger-than-expected 119,000 rise in US payrolls. The US will not release jobs data for October due to a halt in surveys during the government shutdown. The release of November’s data will be delayed after the next Fed policy meeting on 10 December. The prolonged US data fog and the strong September report is lowering the prospect of another Fed rate cut next month, as signalled by a rising number of policymakers and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released this week.
We believe the Fed will eventually cut rates by Q1 2026 as private sector data shows falling job openings, slowing wage growth and a surge in layoff announcements. Also, the jobless rate in September rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. Hence, we see any rise in the US 10-year government bond yield towards 4.20-4.25% as an opportunity to add to high quality bonds, preferably in the 5-7-year maturity range. We retain our 12-month target on the US 10-year yield at 3.75-4.0% and remain on watch for any signs of further job market weakness.
A confidence boost from tech sector. Semiconductor maker Nvidia’s strong forward guidance this week should eventually help ease a key headwind facing risk assets lately – the sector’s elevated valuations. Nvidia’s guidance mirrors robust order books, earnings growth and attractive profit margins for the semiconductor sector. We believe these robust fundamentals support relatively high sector valuations. Meanwhile, China’s sustained property market downturn is raising the chance of more targeted stimulus. China’s consumer and tech sectors are likely to benefit the most from any policy boost. (see page 4).
Japan outlook clouded by fiscal uncertainty; prefer Asia ex-Japan. Japan’s stocks have fallen c. 6% in USD terms from their recent peak, USD/JPY has surged to a 10-month high and the 30-year government yield has set a new record high as the government’s proposed fiscal boost, the largest since the pandemic, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability. The spat with China over Taiwan is adding to the uncertainty. Given the uncertainty, we prefer Asia ex-Japan equities (see page 5).
Rising chance of a BoJ intervention to stem the yen’s slide. The market reaction to the government’s fiscal stimulus suggests investors are finally drawing a line in the sand. A weaker yen is likely to complicate the authorities’ plan to stem rising inflation expectations. Yet, there are mixed messages on the timing of the next BoJ rate hike, with a government advisor suggesting a hike in March, while a BoJ board member suggested the need for a hike next month to stem the yen’s slide. We see rising prospects of a BoJ intervention around 158-160 curbing further USD/JPY upside (see page 5).
Indian equities turning around: There are signs of a revival in Indian equities after this year’s underperformance. Front-loading of fiscal stimulus and rate cuts this year, in response to US tariffs, are likely to revive domestic consumption, potentially triggering corporate earnings upgrades in 2026. India’s valuation premium vs. regional peers has narrowed and investor positioning remains low. Any potential trade agreement with the US is likely to revive foreign investor sentiment.
— Rajat Bhattacharya
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: : On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as negative for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Robust US manufacturing activity; easing trade tensions
(-) factors: Cautious Fed; US credit risks, China property downturn
US job creation in September was better than expected but previous month’s data was revised down to a contraction; the jobless rate also rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021
US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate
UK headline consumer inflation rate fell for the first time in five months, while core inflation fell to 3.4%, raising the prospect of a BoE rate cut
UK headline and core consumer inflation
China’s new-home prices saw the steepest monthly decline in a year during October 2025, raising the chance of a more targeted stimulus
China’s new-home prices across 70 cities
Top client questions
What are the key takeaways from the US semiconductor industry’s earnings season?
Our view: We believe the momentum in AI-related investment remains strong. The current equity market pullback is a good opportunity to add exposure to the US technology sector.
Rationale: The semiconductor industry’s Q3 earnings beat consensus expectations. Forward looking guidance has also been strong, driven by demand for advanced chips used in AI applications. Major internet companies and cloud-infrastructure providers, which generate significant cashflows in their respective businesses, continue to order significant amount of such chips, leading to demand exceeding available supply.
As semiconductor technology continues to advance, needing faster processing speeds and more efficient power requirements, the development and production of the next generation of advanced chips will be crucial to sustain revenue growth in the semiconductor industry. US semiconductor industry earnings are expected to grow by 42% in 2025 and 40% in 2026. Valuations are elevated, but not at extreme levels.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
The US semiconductor industry is likely to deliver strong earnings growth, supporting technology sector equities’ outperformance
Consensus expectations for 2025 and 2026 earnings growth for the US technology sector and its sub-industries
Have China’s tech and e-commerce industry’s latest earnings lived up to expectations?
Our View: China’s growth sector delivered strong earnings. We are Overweight Chinese equities within Asia ex-Japan. Pullback in growth stocks provides an opportunity to add exposure.
Rationale: China growth stocks delivered solid results in Q3 2025, with the IT sector showing robust earnings growth at 58%. In contrast, Consumer Discretionary posted a modest 9% increase, while Communication Services declined by 5%, both underperforming the 12% rise in the broader MSCI China index as of 20 November (Source: Bloomberg). Deflationary pressures and prolonged price competition both weighed upon margins.
While the pullback in global equities has been dampening investor sentiment, we remain Overweight on these sectors: 1) Policy tailwinds: Government “anti-involution” measures aimed at curbing excessive price competition should bolster corporate margins; potential property stimulus package should help; 2) Tech investment cycle: Ongoing capital expenditure and innovation in AI across major technology stocks to achieve “technological self-reliance”; 3) Attractive valuations: Chinese tech stocks continue to trade at a discount relative to Developed Market peers. Looking ahead, 12-month forward EPS growth for the Hang Seng Tech index of 41% provides a solid foundation for continued valuation rerating.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
Resilient earnings outlook across China growth sectors is positive for the Hang Seng Tech index
12-month forward EPS growth for Hang Seng Tech index
Top client questions (cont’d)
What are the investment implications of Japan’s new government policies?
Our View: Long term JGB yields are likely to climb higher if the government persists with its plan for a large fiscal stimulus, with increasing downside risks to Japanese equities. However, rising risks of a BoJ rate hike and currency market intervention means USD/JPY appears overstretched at current levels.
Rationale: USD/JPY broke above 155, driven by Japan PM’s plans for a large fiscal stimulus, a firmer USD and some dovish comments from the BoJ. However, we expect USD/JPY to be capped. In the US, October Fed meeting minutes showed many officials were unwilling to cut in December due to a lack of progress on inflation, limited labour data and heightened uncertainty due to the government shutdown. This pushed the USD higher as markets trimmed December rate cut expectations. However, the US unemployment rate rose in September, leading to consolidation in the USD index (DXY) around 100. In Japan, policy signals have become more mixed. Japan PM’s panel member Kataoka noted the BoJ is unlikely to hike before March, though BoJ board member Koeda suggested a rate hike could happen as early as next month. Meanwhile, the rapid JPY depreciation raises intervention risks. On technical charts, 158–160 is a significant resistance zone. We expect USD/JPY to consolidate within this band rather than break meaningfully higher.
For bonds, long-term Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are rising on the back of news that PM Takaichi’s proposed fiscal package will be larger than JPY 17tn, which is more expansionary relative to market expectations. The 10-year JGB yield rose to 1.83%, a level last seen just before the global financial crisis. The BoJ may intervene should the rise in yield become too aggressive. The market is expecting a BoJ rate hike at the March 2026 meeting. We see further steepening in the JGB bond yield curve from here.
Meanwhile, Japan’s solid Q3 corporate earnings, driven by resilient margins, and constructive forward earnings outlook, has supported this year’s equities rally. Corporate governance reforms continue to be a positive catalyst, with the announced value of share buyback YTD exceeding the FY 2024 total. However, we see increasing downside risks in the near-term from escalating geopolitical tensions with China, particularly through the potential loss of tourism revenue and supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the valuation of Japanese equities appears less compelling – the Nikkei 225 index now trades at around +1.5 standard deviation above its 5-year average, which may limit near-term upside potential.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Jason Wong, Equity Analyst
USD/JPY resistance zone at 158-160; further upside is likely capped amid BoJ intervention risk
USD/JPY and technical support/resistance levels
Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose sharply on a potentially larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus. Markets expect a BoJ rate hike in March 2026
10-year JGB yield. Market implied number of 25 bps BoJ rate hike/s by Dec 2025 and Mar 2026
Nikkei 225 index valuation appears less compelling, which may limit near-term upside potential
Nikkei 225 index 12-month forward P/E ratio
Top client questions (cont’d)
Are you changing your US rates outlook after September’s payrolls data and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting?
Our view: The Fed’s messaging indicates a risk of fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated. Investors should rebalance towards 5-7 year maturities as the US 10-year rate approaches the lower bound of our 3-month target range of 4.00-4.25%. The 5-7-year maturity bucket offers the best balance between yields versus fiscal and inflation risks.
Rationale: The minutes from October’s Fed policy meeting suggested a divided committee, with some members advocating for more easing if labour market conditions weaken further, while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation and favour caution. Consequently, the odds of a rate cut in December have dropped from almost 100% in mid-October to approximately 30%.
So far, limited data releases due to the government shutdown conveyed an impression of resilience in economic activity, despite some weakness in the job market. For instance, the ADP payroll data indicated a downturn in job growth for October. The delayed September non-farm payroll was better than expected but with significant revision down to job gains in earlier months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4% in September. On average, the job growth trend is slowing down. Economic indicators such as durable goods orders, Empire State manufacturing, and construction spending suggest continued economic resilience.
The market has priced in fewer rate cuts than before, but we believe that the weakness in unemployment will lead to more Fed rate cuts next year, especially in Q1.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
Fed’s projection of its target policy rate suggests less rate cuts than that implied by money markets
Fed funds rates – Dot-plot median projections for end-2026 vs market implied estimates
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,795
Technical indicators for key markets as of 20 November close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 20 Nov close
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