7 November 2025
Weekly Market View
Impact of political upsets and legal setbacks
A stock market melt-up, flagged in our publications since August, has extended the equity rebound since President Trump’s initial tariff shock in February-April. The top question now is whether there is still enough fuel left in the tank.
The “make-or-break” Q3 earnings season has delivered stellar earnings beats yet again. Strong corporate earnings, Fed rate cuts and the latest extension of US-China truce remain the fundamental drivers of the equity rally.
While still-bullish US equity investor positioning and elevated valuations could lead to 5-10% brief pullback in equities, US politics and the courts could provide the next catalysts for a year-end rally.
A deal to end the US government shutdown, following the Republican party’s losses in the latest local government elections, and a potential rollback of US tariffs by the Supreme Court would be positive for risk assets into year-end.
Bullish US tech sector equities – Solid earnings guidance
Bullish US inflation-protected bonds – hedge inflation upside
Range-bound to bullish bias on GBP/USD – potential technical rebound from oversold levels
Charts of the week: Rising chance of tariff rollback
Betting odds give rising chance of tariff rollback and resumption of government work; earnings remain a pillar of support
Polymarket betting odds on government shutdown, tariff decision
US consensus 2026 earnings estimates, 6 Nov vs. 1 Jul
Source: *Polymarket, LSEG I/B/E/S, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Impact of political upsets and legal setbacks
Strategy summary: A stock market melt-up, flagged in our publications since August, has extended the equity rebound since President Trump’s initial tariff shock in February-April. The top question now is whether there is still enough fuel left in the tank. The “make-or-break” Q3 earnings season has delivered stellar earnings beats yet again. Strong corporate earnings, Fed rate cuts and the latest extension of US-China truce remain the fundamental drivers of the equity rally.
While still-bullish US equity investor positioning and elevated valuations could lead to 5-10% brief pullback in equities, US politics and the courts could provide the next catalysts for a year-end rally. The Republican party’s losses in local government polls this week should spur the party to agree with the Democrats to end the government shutdown. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court, in its opening questions, appears to be sceptical about the legality of Trump’s tariff. A deal to end the US government shutdown and a potential rollback of US tariffs by the top court would be positive for risk assets into year-end.
Democrat’s election surge likely heralds end of government shutdown. The US government shutdown has entered a record sixth week. Although markets have largely ignored it so far, it is starting to make its impact on US politics. New York City elected a democratic socialist as its first-ever Muslim mayor. Meanwhile, Democrats won the race for governor of Virginia (home to hundreds of thousands of federal government workers), flipping the seat from Republican control, and retained the governor’s seat for New Jersey, among wide-ranging gains in local government elections across the country.
President Trump blamed the Republican party’s electoral upsets on the government shutdown. This raises the odds of a deal with Democrats to end the impasse. A deal would likely involve the extension of healthcare subsidies (under “Obamacare) which are due to expire by the year end.
A rollback in tariffs? The Supreme Court has started examining the legality of Trump’s tariffs following a challenge from US businesses and states. Although a decision could be months away, markets are parsing the tenor of initial questions to assess the Court’s leaning. The focus is whether the President’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose import tariffs (a form a taxation on US companies) violates the constitutional authority of the Congress to impose taxes on Americans. During initial arguments, both conservative and liberal judges appeared sceptical about the administration’s authority to impose tariffs, raising the odds of a rollback of the duties. Three lower courts, including a trade court, have already ruled against the administration.
Likely impact of tariff rollback. Any tariff rollback would reduce the odds of a US recession and lift the chance of a soft-landing. While Trump could use other short-term emergency powers to impose targeted tariffs, a major long-term headwind would be eased. Any economic boost from a tariff rollback could revive inflation pressures. We remain bullish on US inflation-protected bonds to hedge any upside inflation risk (see page 6).
Initiating opportunistic idea on US technology amid solid earnings guidance. Solid global corporate earnings remains the fundamental driver of the equity rally. Although US Q3 earnings surprise for the tech sector was lower than the overall market, forward earnings guidance for the sector remains strong, thanks to broadening AI-related investments, with 23% earnings growth expected for the sector in 2026. Fed rate cuts should mitigate concerns about valuations (see page 4).
Potential technical rebound in GBP, more cautious on Gilts. Our previous bearish view on GBP/USD has played out as UK government bond yields fell sharply on concerns about impending growth slowdown as the government prepares to hike taxes in the 26 November budget. We expect the pair to trade in range with a mildly bullish bias heading into the budget. While UK government bonds still have a yield advantage against other Developed Market bonds, we recently closed our bullish opportunistic view on the bonds due to expected volatility ahead of the budget, locking in gains (see page 5).
— Rajat Bhattacharya
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Robust US services; US-China trade truce; potential end to US government shutdown
(-) factors: Weak US mfg., rising inflation pressures; cautious RBA, BoE
US ISM services prices paid index rose more than expected, indicating elevated inflation pressures; meanwhile, US private payrolls rebounded
US ISM manufacturing and services prices paid indices, US ADP private sector payrolls
Euro area headline inflation eased to 2.1% y/y in October, nearing the ECB’s 2% target; this raises the chance of one last 25bps rate cut in December
Euro area headline and core inflation
China’s manufacturing PMI fell more than expected in October; non-manufacturing PMI rose as expected
China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs
Top client questions
Is an Overweight on the US technology sector still justified after mixed reactions to AI companies’ recent earnings?
Our view: We maintain an Overweight on the US technology sector and initiate an opportunistic idea on the sector*.
Rationale: The Q3 earnings season has been strong. Companies in the S&P500 index that have reported are delivering a 10.4% positive earnings surprise (source: LSEG I/B/E/S). Within this, the technology sector has seen an 8.5% earnings surprise, beating the already-high expectations. Technology is delivering the strongest earnings growth in Q3 (28.5% y/y). Stock price behaviour suggests markets are rewarding companies with a growth acceleration, such as those in cloud services from AI demand, while not favouring companies with accelerating capex, without a visibility in orders and business pipelines.
However, the fundamental picture for the US technology sector remains constructive, and Fed rate cuts help soothe valuation concerns. Technology’s earnings growth in 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher steadily throughout the year, with the broadening of AI investments and increasing demand. We expect the strong earnings growth, at 23.5% in 2025 and 22.8% in 2026, to support the sector’s outperformance over the next 6-12 months.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
Consensus 2025 and 2026 earnings growth for the US technology sector has been revised higher throughout 2025
Consensus 2025 and 2026 earnings growth for the S&P500 and US technology sector at various snapshots this year
*The MSCI US technology index closed at 1,252.11 on 6-Nov-2025. This meets the condition we previously published in our Global Market Outlook to initiate an opportunistic idea on the US technology sector, conditional on the index closing at 1,267 or lower.
What is your take on the latest China earnings season?
Our View: We are Overweight China within Asia ex-Japan equities, and prefer IT, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors
Rationale: China’s Q3 2025 results have been broadly resilient. Of the 458 MSCI China index constituents, 401 have reported as of 6 November, delivering aggregate earnings growth of 12%, led by sectors such as IT, Materials and Financials (source: Bloomberg).
We remain Overweight Chinese equities relative to Asia ex-Japan. Valuations continue to be attractive, with MSCI China’s 12-month forward P/E trading at a 12% discount to the regional index. Consensus EPS growth for China in 2025 was revised down in the recent months and currently hovers near 1%. We expect it to recover to over 14% in 2026; key catalysts include a potential rebound in service consumption and progress towards technological self-reliance, emphasized in the new Five-Year Plan. We remain constructive on consumer discretionary, IT and communication services sectors, supported by sustained investment in innovation and industrial upgrades. The trade truce between the US and China further boosts investor sentiment, while potential monetary easing by the PBoC will provide support for high-dividend state-owned enterprise stocks from the non-financial sectors.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
Projected EPS growth in 2026 for MSCI China index is over 14%, above its 5-year average
EPS growth for MSCI index
Top client questions (cont’d)
With the 10-year UK government bond yield slumping to a year-to-date low, is there more near-term upside in UK government bonds? What is your view on the GBP?
Our view: We have closed our bullish opportunistic view on UK government bonds and expect a potential rebound in yields. We see GBP/USD in a tight range, with a bullish short-term bias.
Rationale: Markets have been bringing forward expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts, as headline inflation continued to ease and growth data softened. This led to the recent declines in 10-year gilt yields to a year-to-date low at 4.37%. However, yields have since retraced slightly higher to 4.4-4.5% level, following stronger than expected services activity and underlying wage pressures. With the BoE maintaining rates at its November meeting, the BoE is likely to move gradually on easing, tempering expectations of rapid rate cuts. Looking ahead, fiscal uncertainty ahead of the upcoming budget and questions around the UK’s debt trajectory could lead to a rebound in yields. Hence, we recently closed our bullish opportunistic idea on UK government bonds on 23-Oct-2025.
While lower policy rates are generally negative for a currency as they reduce investor demand, the markets have already priced-in expected rate cuts by the BoE. Moreover, the BoE’s projected terminal rate remains one of the highest amongst G10 central banks, supporting GBP’s appeal from a carry perspective and making short positions relatively expensive. Although the recent momentum continues to favour the USD, GBP/USD appears technically oversold, leaving scope for a short-term corrective rebound. We see the significant resistance around 1.35. Beyond this level, ongoing fiscal headwinds are likely to cap the upside to GBP/USD. Investors will be closely watching the UK Autumn budget, on 26 November.
— Anthony Naab, CFA, Investment Strategist
Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Rising market expectations of a BoE rate cut drove 10-year UK gilt yields to its recent low
UK 10-year gilt yields, probability of a 25bps hike/cut in BoE December meeting
GBP/USD is likely to recover from oversold territory
GBP/USD and technicals
Top client questions (cont’d)
Are Fed rate cut expectations fully priced? How should a USD bond portfolio be positioned?
Our view: We expect interest rate volatility to continue. We favour bonds in the 5-7 years maturity bucket and are opportunistically bullish on US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a hedge against upside risks to inflation.
Rationale: The market is currently pricing in slightly higher than 60% chance of a 25bps cut at the December FOMC meeting. This probability has dropped from last month, following the October FOMC meeting when Fed Chair Powell pushed back against more aggressive easing. The 10-year US government bond yield has also risen from a low of 3.95% to the current 4.15%.
In previous weeks, we recommended investors reduce long-term bond holdings as the 10-year US government bond yield approached the lower bound of our 3-month target range of 4.0%–4.25%. We reiterate this stance, especially if the 10-year US government bond yield falls back to near 4%. We continue to expect interest rate volatility to persist.
In terms of a bond portfolio, we believe bonds with 5-7 years maturities offer the most attractive balance between yields and fiscal and inflation risks. We also suggest investors adopt an opportunistically bullish stance on US TIPS, as they provide protection against upside risks to longer-term inflation amid fiscal concerns, tariff-driven inflation, and commodity-driven inflation due to geopolitical flare-ups.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
The market has lowered its expectations for a rate cut at the December 2025 Fed policy meeting
Probability of a 25bp cut at the December 2025 Fed policy meeting
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,910
Technical indicators for key markets as of 6 Nov close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 6 Nov close
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As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.