10 April 2026
Weekly Market View
Navigating the Ceasefire
The US-Iran ceasefire largely aligns with our base case of a 4-6 week conflict, helping limit the growth and inflation damage from high energy prices.
However, this does not eliminate downside risk scenarios entirely. Negotiations need to lead to a lasting agreement to avoid risking a renewed round of hostilities and high energy prices. Bringing oil output back to pre-conflict levels is also expected to take time given logistical challenges.
For now, we continue to favour well-diversified portfolios alongside downside risk hedges such as inflation-protected bonds. Gold is expected to rally as central bank selling eases.
In the short-term, we expect the US technology sector to benefit from market positioning, improving fundamentals and cheaper valuations. Asian equities, as well as Developed Market high yield and Emerging Market bonds, are likely to benefit from lower oil prices.
5-7 years remains the sweet spot for bond portfolio maturity profiles
Bullish NZD following hawkish central bank comments
Expect Gold to rebound above USD 5000 as short-term pressures ease
Charts of the week: Earnings robust but monitor energy risks
Robust earnings to continue supporting equities; Tankers crossing Hormuz Strait a key metric of energy supply recovery
S&P500 earnings growth; E=expected
Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings (latest: 9-Apr)
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Strategy summary: The US-Iran ceasefire largely aligns with our base case of a 4-6-week conflict, helping limit the growth and inflation damage from high energy prices. However, this does not eliminate downside scenario risks. Negotiations need to lead to a lasting agreement to avoid risking a renewed round of hostilities and high energy prices. Bringing oil output back to pre-conflict levels is also expected to take time given logistical challenges. This means oil prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels very quickly. For now, we continue to favour well-diversified portfolios alongside downside risk hedges such as inflation-protected bonds. In the short-term, we expect the US technology sector to benefit from market positioning, improving fundamentals and cheaper valuations. Asian equities, as well as Developed Market high yield and Emerging Market bonds, are likely to benefit from lower oil prices.
Ceasefire consistent with our base case scenario: The US-Iran agreement for a two-week ceasefire in the sixth week of the Middle East conflict aligns with our longstanding base case scenario of a 4-6 week conflict that we laid out after the outbreak of hostilities. Assuming the ceasefire results in a lasting agreement, this should help limit the damage from high oil prices on global growth and inflation.
Not out of the woods yet. Near term optimism aside, the ceasefire does not eliminate the downside risk scenario. We continue to monitor two risks. First is the negotiation process itself, which needs to progress positively towards a long-lasting agreement. A failure to do so would risk a resumption of hostilities and a new surge in energy prices. The negotiation process itself is unlikely to be smooth, which could result in some two-way volatility over the course of the two-week ceasefire even if the trend in risky assets is a positive one.
Complete reversal of oil price rise unlikely. A second risk is oil prices remaining elevated for an extended period given the time required to restart production, return shipping to full capacity and repair damaged energy infrastructure.
Macro and policy developments remain positive for risk assets: Looking beyond the Middle East conflict alone, US job market data last week showed an improvement in both job creation and the unemployment rate. On-hold policy decisions by India’s RBI and New Zealand’s RBNZ were consistent with earlier on-hold decisions by the Fed and ECB. The RBNZ’s hawkish tone means we now see room for the NZD to strengthen, particularly against our weak-USD view. While comments across all major central banks displayed concern about possible risks arising from high oil prices, a willingness to balance inflationary risks with supporting growth provides a relatively supportive backdrop. We continue to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in H1 and resume rate cuts in H2.
Prefer Emerging Market, High Yield bonds. The policy outlook supports the case for locking in bond yields on any rebounds. Within a diversified portfolio, we continue to favour Emerging Market and Developed Market high yield bonds.
Near-term outlook positive for equities. Day-to-day volatility notwithstanding, we believe the ceasefire pause improves the near-term outlook for risky assets. The US earnings growth outlook for Q1 is strong and several investor surveys and positioning data suggest US retail investors are at, or close to, bearish capitulation. In our view, this leaves room for US equities to be very sensitive to positive, or less-negative, news.
We like US technology sector, Asian equities. Near-term, we expect the US technology sector and Asian equities to lead a rebound in equities on the back of lower oil prices. We had previously pointed out that the US tech sector’s valuation premium over the S&P500 had fallen back to 2019 lows. This comes against reports of strong AI-sub-sector earnings, reports of improved GPU pricing and easing funding concerns in recent days. This supports our positive sector view and preference for the semiconductor sub-sector. Regionally, Asian equities remain amongst the most sensitive to energy prices, which suggests they lead any rebound driven by falling oil prices. We favour Taiwan, India and China equities within the region.
— Manpreet Gill
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Robust US job market; likely easing of conflict
(-) factors: Weak US services data; potential Fed rate hike; escalating sector- and country-specific tariffs
US non-farm payrolls rose 178,000 in March, reporting the largest gain for any month since 2024, and a reversal from a decline in February
US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate
Euro area Sentix investor confidence fell to softest reading since April 2025 as investor sentiment plunges amid the US-Iran conflict
Euro area Sentix investor confidence
China consumer price inflation rose less than expected in March, while producer price inflation rose by 0.5% y/y, marking the first increase in over 41 months and ending a long deflationary streak
China consumer and producer price inflation
Top client questions
What do you expect from the upcoming US earnings season?
Our view: We expect resilient earnings growth to provide fundamental support to US equities to move higher in 2026.
Rationale: Amid geopolitical volatility, the earnings season is a good time to revisit the fundamental health of US corporates. The consensus estimate is for 14.4% earnings growth in Q1 2026 for the S&P500, led by the technology, materials and financials sectors. Healthcare, communication services and consumer discretionary remain laggards. Given the oil price spike, investors will monitor guidance on cost inflation as well as supply chain disruptions.
The consensus estimate for full-year 2026 earnings growth so far remains resilient at 19.0%, revised up from an initial 15.6% estimated at the start of the year. Growth in 2027 is also projected to be healthy at 16.6%. US strength continues to be broad-based, with positive growth forecasts across all sectors in 2026 and 2027. Technology leads with a projected growth of +43.3% in 2026 and +24.4% in 2027, driven by strong AI capital expenditure (capex) growth. We expect sustained AI investment to be a significant underpinning for overall US earnings growth over the next year.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
S&P500 earnings are expected to grow by 14.4% in Q1 2026, led by the technology, materials and financials sectors
Consensus Q1 2026 earnings growth by sectors in the S&P500 Index
How do recent tech sector developments impact your view on the sector?
Our view: AI developments support our bullish view on the technology sector. In particular, we see global semiconductors as an attractive opportunistic idea.
Rationale: The technology sector continues to see progress in AI developments. The monetisation of AI models is accelerating, evidenced by recent record revenue announced by an AI major. In addition, new models continue to be unveiled with rapid performance improvement. Further, industry data points to a sharp spike in hourly graphics processing unit (GPU) pricing across major platforms. GPUs power AI computations. Pricing for even four-year-old GPUs has risen nearly 40% recently, according to SemiAnalysis. This reflects strong demand from AI agents, which generate a high volume of computation requests.
Third, funding concerns around OpenAI have eased after its record USD 122bn funding round. As a central torchbearer of the global AI ecosystem, this capital infusion eases concerns about the company’s ability to fund essential AI capex.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
US earnings are expected to grow strongly in 2026 and 2027, led by the technology sector
Consensus 2026 and 2027 earnings growth by sectors in the S&P500 Index
Top client questions (cont’d)
How might US plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported patented drugs impact the global pharmaceutical industry?
Our view: We expect the recent US tariffs on imported drugs to have limited impact on the global pharmaceutical industry. We remain Overweight on the US healthcare sector.
Rationale: The White House recently announced 100% tariffs on patented medicines, effective 31 July for large enterprises and 29 September for smaller entities. These are designed to incentivise domestic manufacturing relocation and most-favoured-nation (MFN) drug pricing concessions.
That said, tariff exposure varies materially by geography. Regions with concluded trade agreements, including the EU and Japan, are capped at 15%, while the UK enjoys even more favourable terms. China faces the full 100% tariff without exemptions, whereas India’s generic drug sector currently remains protected until a 2027 review.
While US pharma companies face twin pressures of higher costs and tighter pricing, most major firms have already reached favourable agreements with the administration, significantly reducing their tariff burden. We remain positive on the US healthcare sector, as its defensive characteristics and stable earnings growth provide meaningful portfolio resilience amid broader macro volatility.
— Jason Wong, Senior Equity Analyst
US healthcare sector’s defensive characteristics and stable earnings growth provide meaningful portfolio resilience amid broader macro volatility
MSCI US Healthcare sector 12-month forward earnings growth
How does the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25% and the ongoing Middle East conflict affect your outlook for Indian equities?
Our view: Indian equities offer attractive risk-reward, backed by strong growth and earnings expectations.
Rationale: The RBI remains optimistic on FY27 GDP growth (6.9%), while its inflation forecast of 4.6% remains within its tolerance band of 2-6%. RBI Governor Malhotra noted that despite downside risks, India’s strong fundamentals provide resilience to withstand shocks. Guidance on maintaining sufficient liquidity indicates focus on supporting growth, with the inflation spike being viewed as transitory.
We believe Indian equities remain attractive despite headwinds, as Q4 earnings hold up. We expect robust economic growth in 2026, supported by the US-India trade deal and a growth-focused Union Budget. This could cushion the moderate, temporary impact of oil price shocks. Further, equity valuations have turned attractive, both in absolute terms (trading below long-term historical averages) and relative to major peers and bonds post the sharp correction in March. With foreign investor positioning very light, we see foreign investors rotating back into Indian equities on conflict de-escalation.
— Michelle Castelino, Investment Strategist
Indian equities’ absolute and relative valuations are attractive
Percentile of key valuation parameters vs. their respective 10-year averages for Indian equities
Top client questions (cont’d)
What underpins your preference for intermediate-term (5-7-year) bonds? What could prompt a reassessment?
Our view: Intermediate-term bonds offer a fine balance of risk-reward at this juncture. We would shorten the duration if geopolitical risks escalate or the Fed pivots hawkishly, while a declining term premium would argue for selective extension.
Rationale: Recent market developments continue to reinforce the case for intermediate-term bonds from a risk-reward perspective. Since the Middle East conflict began in March, the US government bond yield curve has flattened as concerns over a near-term inflation spike have tempered rate cut expectations and pushed short-dated yields higher. This has left yield curve measures, such as the 10-2-year spread, near levels last seen in 2025.
We see scope for the curve to re-steepen over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by declining front-end yields as policy-easing expectations re-emerge. Sitting near the yield curve’s inflection point, the 5-7-year segment offers an attractive balance between interest rate risk and returns. It captures most of the incremental yield of longer-dated bonds while avoiding their disproportionate volatility and sensitivity to inflation surprises and fiscal uncertainty. From a portfolio construction perspective, this positioning supports a resilient, flexible fixed-income allocation. We would shorten duration if geopolitical risks re-intensify or the Fed turns hawkish, while a renewed flattening driven by a declining term premium would argue for selectively extending duration.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
US Treasury 2-10-year yield spread has returned to levels last seen in 2025
Yield differentials between the US 2- and 10-year US government bond yield
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged at 2.25%. What is your latest NZD/USD outlook?
Our view: We see upside potential for NZD/USD following the RBNZ’s hawkish hold, with the pair likely to test resistance around 0.60.
Rationale: RBNZ Governor Breman noted the central bank will raise interest rates if core inflation accelerates. The RBNZ remains concerned that medium-term inflation pressures could overshoot and said it will act decisively with rate hikes if inflation picks up. Despite projecting somewhat softer near-term growth, Breman still expects the New Zealand economy to expand this year. Technically, NZD/USD has bullishly breached the resistance of its descending trendline formed in early February. We expect further upside, with a three-month forecast of 0.60.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
NZD/USD rebounded and surpassed its 200DMA; we expect bullish momentum in the near term
NZD/USD and technicals
Top client questions (cont’d)
Why has gold failed to rally despite the Middle East conflict and inflation? Is your long-term bullish view still intact?
Our view: Gold’s safe-haven appeal has been tempered by market volatility and rising interest rates, but we remain bullish long-term. We expect a recovery as geopolitical tensions subside and energy markets stabilise.
Rationale: Since the Middle East conflict began, gold prices have moved in tandem with equities. Markets have been selling gold to cover losses in other assets, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, central bank activity has been mixed; in February, net purchases totalled 27 tonnes, largely due to Poland acquiring 20 tonnes. Turkey and Russia were notable net sellers, offloading 8 tonnes and 6 tonnes respectively.
Investors remain highly sensitive to developments around the USD and shifts in interest rate expectations. The conflict has added to inflation pressures via higher oil prices, prompting central banks to consider rate hikes or maintain elevated rates. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, prompting some investors to shift away from the metal.
However, our long-term outlook remains positive. Should geopolitical tensions ease, particularly with a lasting ceasefire and stable energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, gold’s rally is likely to resume. We see gold prices at USD 5,375/oz in three months.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Gold volatility has surged significantly since the Middle East conflict began in February
Gold prices and volatility
Market performance summary*
*Performance in USD terms unless otherwise stated, 2026 YTD performance from 31 December 2025 to 9 April 2026; 1-week period: 2 April 2026 to 9 April 2026
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 7,008
Technical indicators for key markets as of 9 Apr close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 9 Apr close
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In relation to any collective investment schemes referred to in this document, this document is for general information purposes only and is not an offering document or prospectus (as defined in the SFA). This document is not, nor is it intended to be (i) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any capital markets product; or (ii) an advertisement of an offer or intended offer of any capital markets product. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$100,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.