24 July 2026
Weekly Market View
Geopolitics, policy and earnings
The Houthis’ blockade of the Red Sea following the resumption of US-Iran hostilities has driven a sharp rebound in energy prices and bond yields.
We expect US electoral constraints and Iranian restraint to eventually limit escalation in the conflict. Against this backdrop, central banks are likely to hold rates this month as they assess the impact of any temporary spike in energy prices on the inflation outlook.
Besides the spike in bond yields, equity markets will have to contend with lofty earnings expectations as the reporting season picks up.
We expect strong AI investment-driven earnings beats to drive upgrades to profit estimates. This should support continued equity market outperformance in the coming months.
In fixed income, inflation-protected bonds appear particularly attractive, especially in the US, where the inflation-adjusted yield has surged above 2.4%, close to the highest since 2008.
Remain overweight US tech and communications: Big tech to deliver strong earnings
Bullish Japan and European financial sectors – high interest margins, solid dividends
Neutral to positive on CNH – Likely PBoC reserve ratio cut to have limited impact on CNH
Charts of the week: Earnings likely to trump geopolitics
Oil prices and rate expectations are likely near their peak; strong earnings upgrades are likely to drive equities higher
Source: Bloomberg, LSEG I/B/E/S, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Geopolitics, policy and earnings
Strategy summary: The Houthis’ blockade of the Red Sea following the resumption of US-Iran hostilities has driven a sharp rebound in energy prices and bond yields. We expect US electoral constraints and Iranian restraint to eventually limit escalation in the conflict. Against this backdrop, central banks are likely to hold rates this month as they assess the impact of any temporary spike in energy prices on the inflation outlook.
Besides the spike in bond yields, equity markets will have to contend with lofty earnings expectations as the reporting season picks up. We expect strong AI investment-driven earnings beats, especially in the US and Asia, to drive upgrades to profit estimates. This should support continued equity market outperformance in the coming months. In fixed income, inflation-protected bonds appear particularly attractive, especially in the US, where the inflation-adjusted yield has surged above 2.4%, close to the highest since 2008.
Mideast conflict limited by US electoral constraints, Iran restraint: The re-escalation of tensions, with Yemen’s Houthis joining the conflict, has driven European gas prices back to March peaks, but US gasoline prices remain well below the latest peaks. Notably, Iran has avoided attacking Saudi Arabia and UAE in the latest escalation, signalling restraint. While there is a window for further near-term escalation, any rebound in US gasoline prices closer to May’s peaks in the run-up to November’s mid-term elections is likely to put pressure on President Trump to resume negotiations. Thus, we expect US crude oil (WTI) to trade largely in the USD 70-90/bbl range in the next few months, limiting the economic impact.
Central banks to hold rates this month. We expect major central banks to hold rates this month as they assess the inflationary impact of the latest Middle East escalation. This was apparent from this week’s ECB decision to hold its deposit rate at 2.25%, while it kept the option open for another rate hike later this year. Meanwhile, the softer-than-expected US inflation report for June confirmed our view that inflation peaked in Q2.
We expect the Fed to stay on hold this year as long as gasoline prices remain subdued, given slowing wage growth and cooling shelter and services inflation. As such, the 2-5-year segment of the bond yield curve looks increasingly attractive, especially if rate expectations peak with oil prices in the next few weeks.
ECB, BoJ under rising pressure to hike. The ECB, being an inflation-targeting central bank, is under growing pressure to hike rates in the coming months to counter any energy-price driven inflation if European natural gas prices stay elevated. We raise the probability of another 25bps rate hike later this year, with the timing dependent on the status of the US-Iran conflict and the pass-through of energy prices onto inflation and wage growth. The BoE is likely to be constrained from hiking rates, though, due to weakening domestic growth outlook. Meanwhile, the BoJ remains behind the curve as a weaker currency pours fuel on domestic wage-driven inflation. There is rising chance the BoJ hikes twice this year, if only to support the JPY.
Equities under rates, earnings scanner. Equities slumped on Thursday weighed by a Big Tech earnings report, surging crude oil prices (WTI crossed USD 90/bbl and Brent rose above USD 100/bbl) and the US 10-year government bond yield rising above 4.7%. The 10-year yield has gained almost 35bps since 29 June. We believe a 25bps rise in bond yields, which serves as the discount rate for valuing equities, can impact global equities by around 3-4%, so investors should remain disciplined as rate expectations shift. However, projected earnings growth of 15-20% in 2026 and 2027 should provide a meaningful cushion against rate-driven valuation pressure.
US earnings key support for equity outperformance. Big Tech is likely to show strong results and clearer AI monetisation in Q2. The tech sector has driven over half of global equity EPS upgrades since end-February, while AI adoption is still early in a multi-year cycle. We remain overweight US technology and communication services, and favour regions with stronger earnings visibility, particularly the US and Asia ex-Japan.
— Rajat Bhattacharya
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Robust consumer sentiment in the US and Euro area; China’s new policy initiatives
(-) factors: Escalating geopolitical and trade tensions
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level since February
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
Euro area ZEW survey of economic sentiment beat estimates significantly, reflecting growing confidence in the near-term recovery
Euro area ZEW survey expectations
China’s exports grew 27% y/y in June driven by the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom and surging electric vehicle (EV) sales
China exports and imports growth
Top client questions
What do you expect from US Big Tech earnings next week?
Our view: We expect US Big Tech companies to deliver solid Q2 earnings while demonstrating further evidence of AI monetisation. We are Overweight the US technology and communication services sectors.
Rationale: The US technology sector continues to be a primary driver of S&P500 earnings, with the highest projected earnings growth over the next 12 months. It is expected to see earnings growth of 65.6% y/y in Q2 and 57% in 2026, driven by AI demand.
Besides strong earnings growth, we expect US Big Tech companies to demonstrate that elevated AI capex is translating into stronger monetisation. US Census Bureau data indicates that AI adoption has already reached 20-25% across US industries. This rapid uptake signals strong enterprise acceptance and gives us greater confidence that AI usage remains in the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle. The emergence of cost-effective and high-performing Chinese AI models has raised some concerns about AI commoditisation, which can reduce the returns on AI capex. However, we believe that as AI resources become more efficient to use, total consumption will rise (Jevons paradox). To gain exposure, we are Overweight the US technology and communication services sectors, with the latter being dominated by large internet platforms.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
The technology sector is expected to continue leading the US market in earnings growth over the next 12 months
Projected 2026 and 2027 earnings growth by sector
What is your Q2 earnings outlook for the Japan and Europe financial sectors?
Our view: We expect a constructive earnings season for Japan and Europe ex-UK banks and remain Overweight both sectors.
Rationale: The earnings backdrop for Japan banks is supported by the BoJ’s two 25bps rate hikes in December 2025 and June 2026, which are feeding through via lagged loan repricing and expanding domestic net interest margins. Notably, the regulatory easing of Japan banks’ exposure limitsfor individual corporate groups grants megabanks greater flexibility to underwrite large-scale M&A and AI data centre transactions. While the near-term earnings benefit is incremental, the medium-term implications are more meaningful, with greater flexibility to support loan growth.
Europe banks are also entering the Q2 earnings season with a constructive set of catalysts. Net interest income is benefiting from a higher-for-longer rate path, and fee income is supported by resilient investment banking activity and a stabilising wealth management segment. Meanwhile, credit quality remains robust, with the European Banking Authority’s June 2026 Risk Assessment showing non-performing loan ratios sitting at historic lows. Sustained capital distributions via dividends and share buybacks continue to be a key catalyst and represent a compelling risk-adjusted return opportunity.
— Jason Wong, Senior Equity Analyst
The Japan and Europe ex-UK financial sectors have been outpacing their broader indices, benefiting from a structural increase in domestic interest rates
Total returns of the MSCI Japan and Europe ex-UK financials sectors and the regional market indices
Top client questions (cont’d)
What might be the implications of next week’s Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings for bond and FX markets?
Our view: We expect the Fed, BoJ and BoE to keep policy rates unchanged. Guidance will be key: i) a neutral Fed should limit further gains in US bond yields and USD, ii) BoJ is expected to keep the door open to further policy normalisation; and iii) the BoE is likely to retain a cautious inflation bias.
Rationale: We expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%. Softer June US consumer inflation supports a hold, although sustained strength in WTI oil prices could reinforce upside inflation risks. A neutral message will likely cap short-term gains in government bond yields and reduce support for the USD, while renewed emphasis on inflation risks would lift yields elevated. The USD Index (DXY) is likely to remain rangebound between 100.3 and 102.
The BoJ is likely to hold its policy rate at 1.00% next week, but the weak JPY and imported inflation should preserve the possibility of further normalisation. Reports suggest some policymakers see scope for faster policy normalisation if JPY weakness, higher fuel costs and quicker cost pass-through push inflation above projections. Combined with our expectation that the Fed will remain on hold, this should eventually allow USD/JPY to ease. Technically, we believe the USD/JPY correction is likely to be gradual rather than immediate. FX intervention and higher pension fund allocations to domestic assets may slow JPY depreciation, but a sustained reversal will require a narrower US-Japan interest rate differential. A sustained move below 160 will bring the 155-158 range into focus.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
The USD index (DXY) remains rangebound between 100.3 and 102
The DXY and technicals
USD/JPY intervention risk rises around 165
USD/JPY and technicals
Will the PBoC implement monetary easing measures, given China’s weak Q2 GDP? Will this affect the CNH outlook?
Our view: A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut remains possible, but any resulting CNH depreciation should be limited.
Our view: A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut remains possible, but any resulting CNH depreciation should be limited.
Rationale: China’s economy grew 4.7% in H1, in line with the government’s annual growth target, although Q2 GDP moderated to 4.3% y/y from 5.0% in Q1. Industrial production and exports remained resilient. Overall macroeconomic conditions do not suggest a urgent need for broad-based monetary easing. An RRR cut could weigh on the CNH initially by reinforcing concerns over wider policy divergence with the US. However, such a cut primarily releases banking system liquidity and does not necessarily signal a shift towards aggressive monetary easing. We therefore expect any CNH weakness to remain measured, supported by China’s external balance and policymakers’ preference for exchange-rate stability. USD/CNH has near term support at 6.75.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/CNH downtrend continues
USD/CNH and technicals
Market performance summary*
*Performance in USD terms unless otherwise stated, 2026 YTD performance from 31 December 2025 to 23 July 2026; 1-week period: 16 July 2026 to 23 July 2026
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 7,562
Technical indicators for key markets as of 23 Jul close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 23 Jul close
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Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.