Standard Chartered’s John Calverley, Chief US Economist, Publishes “When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout”
Calverley foresaw the current financial crisis with “Bubbles and How to Survive them,” published in 2004
New York, April 15, 2009
Standard Chartered’s Chief US economist, John Calverley, has published a new book, “When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout” (Nicholas Brealey Publishing) containing valuable analysis for anyone who wants to know what’s next in the current financial crisis.
John’s previous book, Bubbles and How to Survive them, published in 2004, correctly predicted the current financial crisis. In it, he foresaw:
- that the US housing bubble would get bigger and increasingly threaten the US economy
- the serious risk of a financial crisis and severe recession
- that Central banks and regulators needed to take action to restrain bubbles
“When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout” predicts:
On real estate:
- House prices will fall at least 40% peak-to-trough.
- Eventually more than one-third of American mortgages will be greater than the value of their home.
- There is no rush to buy property. Just because a property can be bought for half its value a few years ago does not make it cheap.
On the stock market and the economy:
- The stock market will stay vulnerable to making new lows at least until mid-year
- 2010 will be a year of recovery, with the first signs probable before end-2009. But the recovery will be weak, and unemployment will rise into 2010.
- Inflation will move to zero in 2010, with a risk of deflation after that.
- Restoring the financial system to health requires removing bad debts and recapitalizing the banks. One without the other will fail.
John predicts that the biggest legacy of the crisis will be large fiscal deficits and higher government debt ratios. His prescription for avoiding future bubbles includes anti-cyclical capital or reserve requirements and proactive regulatory agencies that are able to respond quickly and decisively to changing circumstances.
To obtain a copy of “When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout,” please email Nicole LeBlanc at Nicholas Brealey, nleblanc@NicholasBrealey.com.
For an interview with the author, please contact John Calverley at John.Calverley@standardchartered.com or telephone Susan Atran at (646) 845 1114.
About Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered PLC, listed on both London and Hong Kong stock exchanges, ranks among the top 25 companies in the FTSE-100 by market capitalisation. The London-headquartered Group has operated for over 150 years in some of the world’s most dynamic markets, leading the way in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Its income and profits have more than doubled over the last five years primarily as a result of organic growth and supplemented by acquisitions.
Standard Chartered aspires to be the best international bank for its customers across its markets. The Group derives more than 90 per cent of its operating income and profits from Asia, Africa and the Middle East, generated from its Wholesale and Consumer Banking businesses. The Group has over 1600 branches and outlets located in over 70 countries. The extraordinary growth of its markets and businesses creates exciting and challenging international career opportunities.
Leading by example to be the right partner for its stakeholders, the Group is committed to building a sustainable business over the long term and is trusted worldwide for upholding high standards of corporate governance, social responsibility, environmental protection and employee diversity. It employs more than 70,000 people, nearly half of whom are women. The Group’s employees are of 125 nationalities, of which about 70 are represented in the senior management.
For more information, please visit: www.standardchartered.com.