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Global Market Outlook: Riding the tariff relief rally

21 Jul 2025

This article is for informational purposes only.

💡 The relief rally has legs as more trade deals are signed and technicals remain supportive.

🌐 Raise global equities to Overweight: US trade policy risks have eased, and market technical indicators have improved. More trade deals and relative resilience in economic activity data and corporate earnings estimates are key to sustaining the rally.

Upgrade US equities to a small Overweight: The ‘Sell America’ trade is overdone. However, we will continue to diversify across major regions. We are Overweight China within Asia ex-Japan, given policy stimulus and a softer USD.

🧈 A core holding to gold: expect a period of consolidation ahead. Over a 6-12-month horizon, we expect gold to make a renewed move towards USD 3,500/oz as major central bank buying resumes. High-quality bonds remain attractive at today’s elevated yields.

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