12 September 2025
Weekly Market View
How much will the Fed cut?
After a decisively weak series of US jobs reports and limited impact of tariffs on inflation, a key question is how much and how fast the Fed will cut rates. We expect the Fed to cut by 25bps next week and 50bps more by year-end as the US job market slows.
Fed rate cuts and a robust outlook for AI-driven technology sector earnings should help partly offset a growth slowdown and seasonal weakness in the coming weeks.
Political uncertainties in France and Japan are offering investment opportunities. We would add to French banking sector bonds on dips as history suggests the downside is priced in. In Japan, a conservative PM would lead to BoJ rate hikes, lifting the JPY, while a reflationary candidate would be JPY negative.
We see further upside in gold amid Fed rate cuts, concerns about the Fed’s independence and as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. We close our opportunistic view on Korean equities, locking in a 15.6% gain.
Adding French banking sector bonds: political risk priced in
Locking gains in Korean equities: no longer undervalued, trade policy risks
Rangebound USD/JPY: watching Japan PM candidates
Charts of the week: Freezing job market
US job market is close to stalling, raising Fed rate cut expectations, steepening the US bond yield curve and fuelling gold
US non-farm payrolls, unemployment/underemployment rates
US bond yield curve (30-year minus 2-year yield), Gold price
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Editorial
How much will the Fed cut?
Strategy: After a decisively weak series of US jobs reports and limited impact of tariffs on inflation, a key question is how much and how fast the Fed will cut rates. We expect the Fed to cut by 25bps next week and 50bps more by year end as the US job market slows. Fed rate cuts and a robust outlook for AI-driven technology sector earnings should help partly offset a growth slowdown and seasonal weakness in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, political uncertainties in France and Japan are offering investment opportunities. We would add to French banking sector bonds on dips as history suggests the downside is priced in. In Japan, a conservative PM would lead to BoJ rate hikes, lifting the JPY, while a reflationary candidate would be JPY negative. We see further upside in gold amid Fed rate cuts, concerns about the Fed’s independence and as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. We close our opportunistic view on Korean equities, locking in a 15.6% gain (see page 7).
Freezing US job market, limited inflation: We have discussed a cooling US job market for the past few months. However, the latest jobs report for August, and a significant downward revision to past payrolls numbers, raise the prospect of a job market close to stalling. The US economy created only 22,000 net new jobs in August and an average 29,000 jobs over the past three months, significantly less than the c. 100,000 jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable.
June’s payrolls were revised lower to a contraction of 13,000 jobs, the first such contraction since the pandemic in 2020. With the latest slowdown, the unemployment rate has risen to a four-year high of 4.3%, rising above the Fed’s long-term equilibrium rate. Meanwhile, US core consumer inflation, while well above the Fed’s 2% target, has been reasonably contained, remaining unchanged at 3.1% y/y in August, as expected.
Core Fed scenario: As the passthrough of tariffs to inflation remains limited, we expect a 25bps Fed rate cut next week, with another 50bps more of rate cuts by year-end to support the cooling job market. Fed rate cuts and strong technology sector earnings should help offset a growth slowdown and near-term seasonal volatility. Asia ex-Japan equities and EM local currency bonds should benefit the most in this scenario as the USD weakens marginally. We would add 5-7-year maturity US government bonds if the 10-year yield rises above 4.25%.
Alternative scenarios: A hawkish 50bps Fed rate cut could have the same effect on risk assets as our base scenario, especially if inflation remains restrained. Meanwhile, a hawkish 25bps cut could lead a short-term pullback in risk assets and a bounce in the USD. There is a low probability of a dovish 50bps cut, given markets are not expecting it and Chair Powell has never surprised markets. However, in this event, long bond yields could rise and the USD tumble amid concerns about the Fed’s independence, ultimately jolting risk assets.
Opportunities in French bank bonds: We expect France’s government bond yield premium over German bonds to remain rangebound in the near term, given recent widening, ECB liquidity support in case of need and historical precedence around past French political crises. We would add French bank sector bonds on dips. Meanwhile, we expect EUR/USD to trade in the 1.1450-1.1830 range, with a bullish bias, with the pair driven by the US rates outlook and French politics. The ECB maintained its rates-on-hold guidance at its meeting this week.
Watching Japan leadership election: After PM Ishiba’s resignation, the focus has turned to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election on 4 October. USD/JPY is likely to stay rangebound, with a bearish bias as markets assess the next PM candidate. Rising support for a conservative candidate (similar to Ishiba) should lead to a lower USD/JPY on expectations of BoJ rate hike, while a reflationary candidate’s ascendance could lead to higher USD/JPY, with a test of 149. We maintain a core holding in Japan equities.
Gold a core hedge against geopolitical risks. We expect gold to make new highs amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated political risks in France, Japan and the Middle East. Structural demand from central banks remains a fundamental support. We would add on dips, with USD 3,500 a key support.
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: US core inflation plateaued, indicating limited tariff impact
(-) factors: Weak US jobs, China macro data; Middle East tensions
US consumer and producer prices have shown limited impact of tariffs so far
US consumer price and producer price indices
Euro area investor confidence slumped in September amid France’s political uncertainty
Euro area Sentix investor confidence
China’s export and import growth slowed more than expected in August following the implementation of higher US tariffs
China exports and imports growth
Top client questions
What are the implications of France’s political uncertainty for European equities, bonds and the EUR?
Our view: We recommend adding French bank sector bonds on dips. We continue to view Euro area equities as a neutral allocation. EUR/USD expected to be rangebound with bullish bias within a 1.1450-1.1830 range.
Rationale: The yield premium between French and German 10-year government bonds increased as political uncertainty resurfaced in France. However, this widening of the yield premium remains relatively contained, compared to historical episodes, and we expect it to remain so in the near-term.
President Macron has quickly appointed loyalist Sebastien Lecornu as the new PM, but a political stalemate remains as there is no clear majority in the National Assembly to support a Macron-led fiscal consolidation plan. The supportive growth backdrop from German fiscal stimulus supports government bonds in Europe by reducing the yield premia across the Euro area, including those of France. The last sovereign debt crisis in Europe resulted in a more cohesive institutional framework within the Euro area and a broader range of EU and ECB policy tools to address systemic risks. While France still requires structural reforms and significant spending cuts to achieve fiscal sustainability, we view these risks as localised and unlikely to trigger another European crisis.
Banks are primarily influenced by domestic factors, and bond prices of French banks fell during past political incidents. However, French banks, like other European banks, have shown significant improvement in credit quality in recent years. The sector’s bond prices have consistently rebounded following such periods of stress. Hence, we would add to the sector on dips.
Euro area equities have given up much of their outperformance since the start of the year, amid political uncertainty. However, we believe markets are becoming less sensitive to uncertainties in France. Euro area equities trade at a significant 24% discount to global equities, versus an average historic discount of 14%. We view the risk-reward as balanced, thus justifying a neutral allocation to Euro area equities.
Against this backdrop, the EUR’s real effective exchange rate (REER) remains relatively unchanged and volatility remains low. The currency market remains directionless, with EUR/USD balancing drivers of both the Euro area as well as the US policy outlook as key influences. We, therefore, expect EUR/USD to be rangebound, with a bullish bias, as i) ECB approaches the end of its easing cycle, and ii) the Fed resumes rate cuts.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
French bank bonds rebounded as French-German government bond yield premium normalised
Yield differential between 10-year French and German government bonds and French EUR denominated bank subordinated bond index
Euro area equities have given up over half their outperformance versus global equities since the start of the year
Total return for MSCI Europe ex-UK index relative to MSCI All country world index, in USD last one year
EUR/USD likely range-bound: political uncertainty versus weak USD
EUR/USD and technical levels
Top client questions (cont’d)
What should we expect from next week’s Fed meeting? Do US government bonds face “sell the news” risk?
Our view: We expect a 25bps rate cut at the September Fed meeting. We would use any short-term rebound in yields on any disappointment from the Fed meeting to add long maturity bonds, especially if the 10-year bond yield jumps above 4.25%.
Rationale: Following the weak US jobs data print last Friday, the market has priced in a full 25bps rate cut and about 10% chance of a 50bps cut in next week’s Fed meeting. In total, the market is anticipating close to 150bps in cuts by December 2026.
Additionally, markets remain sensitive to narratives around US fiscal concerns, tariff-related headlines, and the independence of the Fed. As a result, any disappointment in the Fed’s rate cut relative to the pace of cuts already priced, coupled with any renewed concerns about the fiscal situation, for instance, could quickly lead to a reversal higher in long bond yields. Such spikes in yields can provide an opportunity for investors to add bonds, because we see the slowdown in the job market ultimately enabling the Fed to cut rates in a soft-landing scenario.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
The breakout lower in US yields follows a series of weak jobs reports. We expect volatility to persist
10-year US government bond yield
How will Japan’s latest political developments affect the outlook for the JPY and Japan equities?
Our View: USD/JPY likely to be rangebound with a bearish bias in the coming week, with support at 145.8. A test of 149 is likely if a pro-fiscal spending candidate wins the LDP election on 4 October. We maintain neutral allocation to Japan equities.
Rationale: The weak US labour market is placing downward pressure on the USD. The impact from the resignation of PM Ishiba remained limited, but the focus has rapidly shifted to the election of a new leader early next month.
The former internal affairs minister, Sanae Takachi, is currently leading in polls. If elected, her relatively dovish preferences for monetary and fiscal policy are likely to add upward pressure on Japan long maturity bond yields and weaken the JPY. In contrast, Shinjiro Koizumi holds more hawkish policy preferences.
We retain a neutral allocation to Japanese equities. Continued domestic growth and inflation are expected to boost profit growth in Japan, bolstering investor sentiment alongside ongoing corporate reform initiatives. However, this can be offset by strengthening JPY, if the new PM were to be hawkish in monetary policy. We expect markets to remain fluid ahead of the full LDP voting in early October.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
USD/JPY likely to consolidate before LDP election
USD/JPY and technical levels
Top client questions (cont’d)
What is the outlook for gold, silver and oil?
Our view: We expect a confluence of positive factors to drive gold higher. Silver should also benefit, but risks are higher.
Rationale: We have previously argued that we needed to see clearer signs of US growth risks – and thus higher Fed cut expectations –for gold to break out of its consolidation range since April. That condition was met after August’s soft payrolls. which led gold to fresh record highs above USD 3,600/oz.
We expect gold to continue to make new highs, with any pullback met by quick “buy-on-dip” support. Overbought conditions mean gold could test technical support at USD 3,500 in the short term, but we would be adding on pullbacks, targeting USD 3,675.
Impending Fed rate cuts is one catalyst in the current surge. While inflation remains a risk, stagflationary environments have historically been conducive for gold. In addition, persistent concerns over the Fed’s independence provide support, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against systemic risks. Seasonality also turns supportive, as India’s festival season and Chinese restocking ahead of Lunar New Year bolster jewellery demand. High gold prices are likely to slow central bank purchases, though that has yet to deter China’s PBoC from adding to its gold reserves again in August.
We also see further upside in silver, which we expect to be dragged along by gold. Positioning is light and the gold/silver ratio is back to its normal range, suggesting room for silver to catch up. However, we are somewhat more cautious on silver relative to gold, given silver’s higher correlation to risk assets and its sensitivity to industrial demand, both of which remain more susceptible to seasonality and growth risks. We see strong resistance at USD 44, with support at USD 40.
Meanwhile, geopolitics in both the Middle East and Eastern Europe led to brief rebounds in oil prices. However, we continue to expect oil to remain well-capped given the significant excess supply in global markets.
— Tay Qi Xiu, Portfolio Strategist
— Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer, AMEE
Fed rate cut expectations support gold prices
Gold prices and market implied Fed Funds Rate by end 2025
Silver tends to struggle during periods of weakening global industry activity
Silver prices y/y vs global industrial production y/y
Top client questions (cont’d)
Korea equities have broken above 52-week highs – is there more to go?
Our view: While the ongoing rally could continue, we prefer to lock in gains on our opportunistic idea on Korea equities now.
Rationale: Korea equities have rallied strongly and positive developments on the AI front lend tailwind to this technology sector-heavy market. The US earnings season has unveiled massive AI infrastructure demand, likely underpinning growth until the end of the decade. In addition, there is also policy support domestically, with rising anticipation of President Lee scrapping a proposal to lower the threshold for capital gains tax.
Corporate governance reforms in Korea and the resumption of global fund inflows into Korea equities have largely played out as we expected, when we initiated our opportunistic idea on Korea equities back on 19 June, 2025.
While the ongoing rally could continue, we prefer to lock in gains now and close our opportunistic idea on Korea equities for a gain of 15.6%. A significant undervaluation of the market has closed – the MSCI Korea index is trading at 10.3x consensus 12-month price-earnings ratio, in line with its 10-year average. Heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around US trade policy is a risk – a recent example was the US move to detain Korean workers in some factories in the US.
— Raymond Cheng, Chief Investment Officer, North Asia
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
Following a strong rally, we prefer to take profit on our opportunistic idea on Korea equities
MSCI Korea index over the last two years
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,672
Technical indicators for key markets as of 11 Sep close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 11 Sep close
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In relation to any collective investment schemes referred to in this document, this document is for general information purposes only and is not an offering document or prospectus (as defined in the SFA). This document is not, nor is it intended to be (i) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any capital markets product; or (ii) an advertisement of an offer or intended offer of any capital markets product. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$100,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.