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Outlook 2026
Outlook 2026: Invest with clarity amid shifting currents
Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer, shares the top 3 key investment themes for 2026.
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Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
AS AT 28 AUGUST 20266
Display All
Equity
  • North America
  • Europe ex-UK
  • United Kingdom (UK)
  • Japan
  • Asia ex-Japan
Bonds
  • DM IG Government bonds
  • DM IG Corporate bonds
  • DM HY Corporate bonds
  • EM USD Government bonds
  • EM LCY Government bonds
  • Asia USD bonds
Commodities
  • Crude Oil
  • Gold
Alternatives
    Multi-Asset
      Equity – at a glance
      28 AUGUST 2026

      We remain Overweight global equities, with our view underpinned by robust earnings growth. The US Q2 earnings season has delivered a strong beat to consensus expectations, resulting in 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates being revised higher. We acknowledge headwinds from high bond yields, which weigh on equity valuations, but we see enough cushion from earnings growth. We are Overweight US equities, with fundamental earnings strength and reasonable valuations. We remain Overweight AxJ equities – a key beneficiary of AI capex, which shows no signs of slowing down.


      Within AxJ, we continue to remain Overweight Taiwan, with good visibility on AI-driven growth, and Overweight China for its valuation re-rating potential. We lower India to a Core holding, given stretched valuations and rangebound oil prices.


      We maintain Japan as a Core allocation, as fiscal stimulus and a reflating economy offset energy import vulnerability. We remain Underweight UK equities, given their relatively muted earnings growth and headwinds from rising bond yields.

      North America equities – Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Earnings growth
      + AI uptrend
      The Bearish Case:
      – US policy uncertainty
      – Investor positioning
      Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Undemanding valuations
      + German fiscal spending
      The Bearish Case:
      – US trade policy risks
      – Oil prices
      UK equities – Less Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive valuations
      + Dividend yield
      The Bearish Case:
      – Stagflation risks
      – US trade policy risks
      Japan Equities – Core holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Reasonable valuations
      + Rising dividends/share buybacks
      The Bearish Case:
      – JPY strength
      – US trade policy
      Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding
      28 AUGUST 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Earnings
      + Policy support
      + Easing oil prices
      The Bearish Case:
      – China growth concerns
      – US trade policy
      Bonds – at a glance
      28 AUGUST 2026

      Core scenario (soft landing, 50% probability): We have slightly revised upward the probability of a soft landing from 45% by reducing the odds of a ‘no landing’. The global economy remains resilient despite this year’s oil shock. Business confidence picked up further in July. The US remains at the forefront of growth, driven by an acceleration in AI investment and wealth effect from a booming stock market. Fiscal easing in Germany and Japan is supporting growth. Meanwhile, inflation has likely peaked in the US in Q2, although it remains elevated in the Euro area and is likely to rise further in Japan. In this scenario, the Fed is likely to hold rates this year, the ECB is likely to deliver another ‘insurance’ hike in H2, while the BoJ should hike twice more this year. China, facing slowing growth, is likely to ease liquidity and accelerate fiscal spending in H2 to revive domestic demand.

      Upside risk (no landing, 25% probability): We reduce the probability from 30% amid continued Middle East and Russia-Ukraine uncertainty ahead of the US mid-term elections. If oil prices ease, US tax cuts, an AI-fuelled stock market boom and fiscal easing in Germany and Japan could boost ‘animal spirits’. A global defence spending boom could also spur global growth.

      Downside risk (25% probability): This tail risk scenario includes a 15% chance of recession, potentially caused by a prolonged blockade of the Hormuz strait, a stock market downturn negating the wealth effect or a bond sell-off due to inflation or debt concerns. We also assign a 10% chance to a stagflation scenario if the US-Iran conflict worsens and oil stays above USD 90/bbl.

      Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Attractive yields
      The Bearish Case:
      – High sensitivity to inflation
      – Monetary policy
      Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Improving valuations
      The Bearish Case:
      – Expected supply
      – Especially in the US
      Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026
      + Attractive yield
      + Low rate sensitivity
      The Bearish Case:
      – Sensitive to growth
      – Credit quality risks
      Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive yield
      + Sensitive to US rates
      The Bearish Case:
      – EM credit quality
      – US trade policy risks
      Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding
      28 AUGUST 2026
      + Attractive yield
      + Benefit from USD weakness
      The Bearish Case:
      – US trade policy risks
      – Inflation risks
      – FX risk
      Asia USD bonds – Core holding
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Moderate yield
      + Low volatility
      The Bearish Case:
      – Sensitive to China growth
      Commodities – at a glance
      28 AUGUST 2026
      • We reinstate our Overweight on gold and raise our 3 – and 12-month price targets to USD 4,750/oz and 5,000/oz, respectively.We maintain our 3-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil forecast at USD 90/bbl and our 12-month target at USD 70/bbl.
      Oil
      28 AUGUST 2026

      Gold
      28 AUGUST 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Portfolio hedge
      + Central bank demand
      The Bearish Case:
      – Resilient USD
      – Elevated real yields
      Alternatives – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Diversifier characteristics
      The Bearish Case:
      – Equity, corporate bond volatility
      Multi-Asset – at a glance
      19 JUNE 2026

      FX views (12-month outlook)
      • USD
      • EUR
      • JPY
      • GBP
      • AUD
      • ASIA EX-JAPAN
      28 AUGUST 2026
      We are lowering our three-month DXY forecast to 98 from 101.5. This reflects a new near-term USD headwind after the US Treasury’s surprise decision to “at least double” liquidity-support buybacks of 10-30-year government debt from USD 2bn to USD 4bn per operation through 4 November. The initial declines in long-end yields and the USD suggest that higher US bond yields provide less reliable USD support when driven by fiscal concerns and the term premium rather than stronger growth or core real yields. July US non-farm payrolls falling by 23,000, wage growth slowing to 3.2% y/y and headline consumer inflation easing to 3.4% y/y all point to a less one-sided US growth story. However, August business activity remains resilient. We see bond buybacks,
      softer labour and consumption data as near-term USD headwinds rather than signs of an abrupt US downturn.

      We expect the USD to decline gradually towards 96 over the next 12 months. Narrowing global rate divergence and persistent US fiscal and external imbalances weigh on the medium-term USD outlook. Softer US labour and inflation momentum support our view that the Fed can remain on hold, while further BoJ normalisation and relatively hawkish RBA and ECB policy biases should reduce the USD’s relative rate advantage. Fiscal and external imbalances leave the currency more dependent on sustained foreign capital inflows. Resilient US activity, AI-related capex and associated equity inflows remain significant offsets.
      The Bullish Case:
      + Short term safety
      The Bearish Case:
      likely underperform vs major asset classes
      28 AUGUST 2026
      Constructive: Euro area August composite PMI rose to 52.1 and manufacturing PMI to 52.8, reinforcing signs of improving activity. The ECB’s relatively hawkish bias and narrowing US-Euro area rate differentials support the EUR, while a softer medium-term USD provides an additional tailwind.
      The Bullish Case:
      The Bearish Case:
      28 AUGUST 2026
      Medium-term bearish: July headline consumer inflation firmed to 1.9% y/y and core inflation to 1.8%, while exports rose 23.2%, keeping further BoJ policy normalisation in play. Higher domestic yields are also likely to encourage repatriation flows, although modest Q2 growth and the still-wide US-Japan rate differential argue for a gradual rather than rapid JPY recovery.
      The Bullish Case:
      The Bearish Case:
      28 AUGUST 2026
      Modestly constructive: We are raising both of our GBP/USD forecasts, mainly on a softer USD outlook. Resilient UK activity and a relatively cautious BoE provide support for the GBP. However, UK unemployment at 4.9%, softer wage momentum and a 0.5% m/m fall in July retail sales should limit the pace of GBP gains.
      The Bullish Case:
      + UK’s resilience to US tariff risks
      The Bearish Case:
      Soft UK labour market
      28 AUGUST 2026
      Constructive: The RBA’s hawkish bias and 4.35% policy rate preserve the AUD’s yield support, while the August composite PMI remained expansionary at 52.5. Commodity price resilience and a softer USD provide additional tailwinds, but July employment fell by 15,800 and unemployment rose to 4.5%, suggesting Australia’s cooling labour market should limit the pace of appreciation.
      The Bullish Case:
      The Bearish Case:
      28 AUGUST 2026
      USD/CNH – Modestly bearish: The PBoC is keeping the daily fixing biased firmer while tolerating only gradual, managed appreciation. Robust trade surpluses and the repatriation of exporters’ large, unsettled USD earnings provide steady conversion flows, even as soft domestic demand and an accommodative PBoC cap the pace.

      USD/SGD- Modestly bearish: The latest surprise tightening strengthens our conviction. Singapore’s GDP growth was stronger than expected. Higher energy and imported costs are expected to lift inflation from July. We see the pair responding to the Fed, US government bond yields and geopolitical demand for the USD in the longer term.

      USD/INR – Cautiously bearish on the INR: July’s trade deficit widened to USD 32bn, while elevated oil prices added to India’s import burden. This pressure should outweigh a softer USD over time, although capital inflows and RBI intervention should contain volatility, supporting gradual depreciation towards 98.
      USD/MYR – Modestly bearish: Strong exports, resilient domestic demand and the conversion of overseas corporate earnings provide underlying support for the MYR. A softer medium-term USD adds a tailwind, although external trade uncertainty argues for a measured rather than aggressive appreciation path.

      USD/KRW – Modest upside: Strong semiconductor exports (+179% y/y) and the BoK’s July rate hike led us to lower our 12-month USD/KRW forecast to 1,420 from 1,540. However, the US-Korea rate differential still favours the USD, while volatile foreign equity flows pose another headwind for the KRW.

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Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Global Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.