17 July 2026
Weekly Market View
Inflation cools, but focus
shifts back to oil
Peak Fed hawkishness is likely behind us following the release of a soft June CPI inflation print. This reinforces our view that the Fed will keep rates on hold through the second half of 2026.
However, a new surge in oil prices poses some risks to this view. Oil prices are likely to rise to the top of our expected USD 70-90/bbl near-term range, but we expect any rise above this to be short-lived.
We would focus on locking in attractive yields, but retain our strong preference for short bond maturities to avoid excessive exposure to any new inflation concerns.
China and India equities should benefit within Asia from any equities broadening trade, alongside Taiwan equities. AI monetisation is expected to be a key focus for upcoming tech sector earnings.
What can we learn from Q2 US bank earnings?
What is the impact of leadership changes in the UK?
Is the Swiss Franc set to weaken?
Charts of the week: Inflation softens
June US CPI data eases immediate inflation worries, but oil remains a risk. China, India equities have room to catch up.
CPI inflation m/m change vs. 2yr US govt. bond yield
MSCI equity indices: Asia ex-Japan vs. China, India
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Inflation cools, but focus shifts back to oil
Strategy summary: Peak Fed hawkishness is likely behind us following the release of a soft June CPI inflation print. This reinforces our view that the Fed will keep rates on hold through the second half of 2026. However, a new surge in oil prices poses some risks to this view. Oil prices are likely to rise to the top of our expected USD 70-90/bbl near-term range, but we believe sufficient incentives exist for all sides to avoid a larger escalation that pushes prices sustainably above this range.
We would focus on locking in attractive yields, but retain our strong preference for short bond maturities to avoid excessive exposure to any new inflation concerns. China and India equities should benefit within Asia from any equities broadening trade, alongside Taiwan equities. AI monetisation is expected to be a key focus for upcoming tech sector earnings.
US inflation data signals peak hawkishness likely behind us: US headline CPI inflation fell -0.4% m/m, the biggest monthly drop in years. This supported the view that the rise in inflation over Q2 indeed was likely a temporary surge led by oil prices alone rather than being a more broad-based risk. The data point reinforces our view that the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged through H2 2026 and signals ‘peak hawkishness’ is now likely behind us. Fed Chair Warsh’s inclusion of ‘full employment’ at his first semi-annual testimony to Congress supports this view. However, the relief was more visible in shorter-term US bond yields (2-year) relative to long-term bond yields (10-year), suggesting long term fiscal concerns remain.
Renewed Middle East escalation poses upside oil price risk in the near term: Following earlier attacks on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the US initiated new military strikes on Iran. This series of events is pushing oil prices towards the upper end of our expected USD 70-90/bbl range. While there is a non-negligible risk that Trump follows through on his threats to escalate further still, we believe the US continues to face an incentive to avoid a larger oil price shock given the risk to US growth and upcoming mid-term elections.
This means any temporary oil price spikes above USD 90/bbl are unlikely to be sustained for long. Having said that, we continue to see US TIPS (inflation-protected bonds) as an attractive hedge against a more adverse scenario.
Lock in elevated yield: Fiscal worries notwithstanding, our view that we are likely past peak Fed hawkishness means that the recent rise in bond yields offers an opportunity to lock in yields for income. We maintain a broad preference for credit over government bonds, with an Overweight on EM USD government bonds. However, we continue to favour short maturities to avoid excessive exposure to volatility triggered by any new inflation or fiscal worries.
China, India equities to benefit from broadening of rally: 2026 year-to-date gains in Asia ex-Japan equities have been driven by Korea and Taiwan equities (ie. semiconductor-heavy markets). Chinese and Indian equities have both lagged. However, these two markets should benefit from a rotation into broader regional exposure and a softening of the US Dollar, where long positioning is close to extremes. We remain Overweight China and India equities, with our preference for the Hang Seng tech index providing exposure to a broadening of gains within the Asia technology sector.
Watch upcoming tech sector earnings, UK appointments: While semi-conductor sector earnings growth visibility remains strong, we also expect solid result announcements from US hyperscalers. This is likely to be driven by robust AI adoption and digital advertising trends. However, the key market focus is likely to remain on the level of AI capex spending and any signals on the pace of AI monetarisation.
In the UK, the key focus for markets following Burnham’s likely appointment as Prime Minister will be the choice of Chancellor of the Exchequer and any related signals on the extent of fiscal policy continuity. These are likely to be key for UK bond yields and the GBP, which are expected to stay rangebound till greater clarity emerges.
— Manpreet Gill
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as positive for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Easing US price pressures; robust US economic activity
(-) factors: Escalating geopolitical tensions revive inflation risks
US headline and core consumer price inflation eased more than expected to 3.5% y/y and 2.6% respectively in June
US headline and core consumer price inflation
US headline producer inflation eased in June to 5.5% y/y, well below market forecasts of 6.2% y/y and decelerating from 6% y/y in May
US headline and core producer price inflation
China’s exports grew 27% y/y in June driven by the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom and surging electric vehicle (EV) sales
China exports and imports growth
Top client questions
What can we learn from major US banks’ Q2 earnings?
Our view: Major US banks delivered significant earnings beats in Q2 vs. consensus estimates, making them attractive to add on pullbacks. We maintain a Core allocation to US financials.
Rationale: Major US banks beat consensus expectations across both earnings and revenues, primarily driven by a surge in equities trading and record investment banking fees. Market volatility, AI-related capital markets activity and mega listings, such as the SpaceX initial public offering, supported this growth. Positive loan growth supported net interest income. Meanwhile, resilient US consumers supported the stable credit quality.
Looking ahead, growth should be supported by a healthy pipeline for equity underwriting and M&A advisory fees. An elevated equity market also bolsters fee income for the asset management business. Guidance was broadly raised, although management flagged tougher H2 comparisons and sounded a cautious tone around macro uncertainties, inflation risks and big fiscal deficits. Valuations of major US banks are elevated but justified, in our view.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
Broad-based S&P500 EPS growth forecasts remain resilient
Projected Q2 2026 earnings growth by sector
What do you expect from upcoming tech sector earnings, including those from US hyperscalers?
Our view: Earnings growth in the semiconductor sector remains strong with good visibility. We favour diversifying exposure into Taiwan equities. We expect US hyperscalers to deliver strong growth and prefer gaining exposure through the US communication services sector.
Rationale: Earnings reports from the semiconductor industry point to unprecedented long-term visibility. Sustained AI-driven demand across both advanced logic and memory chips is giving chipmakers the confidence to accelerate capacity expansion plans. Taiwan equities’ significant exposure to the semiconductor industry makes them a preferred route for gaining exposure to this attractive growth.
For US hyperscalers, we expect solid results, driven by cloud growth with robust AI adoption, and healthy digital advertising trends. The market is likely to focus on whether hyperscalers’ significant AI investments are beginning to generate meaningful returns. Hence, management commentary on AI monetisation – specifically regarding new revenue streams through enterprise subscriptions, AI model usage growth and consumption-based pricing trends – will be critical. We also expect hyperscalers to maintain elevated AI capital expenditure (capex) spending. We see the US communication services sector – which is dominated by large internet platforms with reasonable valuations – as an attractive opportunistic trade idea.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
We are turning constructive on the memory segment after the recent correction, which brought the KOSPI Index down over 20% from its peak
South Korea’s KOSPI Index
Top client questions (cont’d)
Does the soft June US consumer inflation print validate the view that peak Fed hawkishness is behind us? What is your view on US bond yields following the soft inflation print?
Our view: We believe peak inflation is behind us in the near term and expect the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end 2026. Short-term yields declined more than long-term yields after the soft June US consumer inflation print, validating our view that the term premium will remain elevated. We maintain our view that the US 2-year Treasury yield will trade in a range of 4.00-4.25%. While the 10-year yield has traded above our near-term target range of 4.25-4.50%, we expect it to technically range between trend support at 4.47% and resistance at 4.63%.
Rationale: June US headline and core inflation slowed to 3.5% y/y and 2.6% y/y, respectively, coming in below market expectations. The data supports our view that peak inflation and Fed hawkishness are behind us in the near term and reinforces our view that the Fed will remain on hold for the rest of 2026. Despite the renewed Middle East tensions this week, we view the escalation as transient and do not expect energy prices to retest their April highs.
Bond yields fell after the latest US inflation data, with shorter-dated US Treasury yields falling more than those at the long end. The 10-year yield pulled back from its 13 July high of 4.626% to around 4.59%, while the 2-year yield fell from its one-year high of 4.288% to around 4.19%. Markets now expect a less hawkish Fed. However, fiscal worries remain and will likely keep the term premium elevated.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
Short-term yields declined more than long-term yields post the US June consumer inflation report. We expect rangebound yields in the near term, with the term premium remaining elevated
US 2- and 10-year government bond yields
What is your outlook for USD/CHF following the pair’s attempt to recover towards 0.8150?
Our view: We expect USD/CHF to remain rangebound with a bearish bias in the coming weeks, with the USD as the key driver.
Rationale: The latest US consumer and producer inflation prints were softer than expected, which has trimmed Fed rate-hike expectations and weighed on the USD. Swiss inflation edged down to 0.5% y/y in June from 0.6% y/y. The slowdown reflected a slight deceleration in services prices and some early energy price easing.
We see an opportunity for price dynamics to gradually reaccelerate in the coming quarters as the effect of the Swiss franc’s (CHF’s) previous appreciation fades. This should allow the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to shift its focus towards policy normalisation over time. The central bank’s increased willingness to intervene against excessive CHF strength remains a latent constraint on USD/CHF downside, with SNB President Schlegel having recently reaffirmed that stance. The pair has been rejected repeatedly at 0.8150 and is likely to remain rangebound with a bearish bias, with support at 0.7920.Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 59.7 in June, its highest level since July 2021. Further NZD gains will likely depend on incoming New Zealand inflation and labour market data validating additional rate hikes. External factors, particularly the Fed’s policy outlook remain key to whether the NZD can extend gains further beyond the first resistance of 0.5820 (the 200-day moving average).
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/CHF rise rejected repeatedly at 0.8150
USD/CHF and technicals
Top client questions (cont’d)
Andy Burnham is widely expected to be confirmed as the leader of the UK Labour Party on 17 July. Will this spark heightened volatility in the GBP and UK bond (Gilt) yields?
Our view: We expect Gilt yields and the GBP to remain rangebound in the near term until there is greater clarity on Burnham’s policy agenda.
Rationale: Andy Burnham is expected to become Prime Minister (PM) of the UK on 20 July, having secured the backing of a majority of Labour Members of Parliament. The Gilt market is anxious about his appointment, as Burnham’s fiscal vision is seen as more left-leaning than that of outgoing PM Starmer’s. Using the 10-year Gilt as an example, yields have risen by about 30bps since he emerged as a strong contender in late June, reflecting these concerns.
However, Burnham has publicly ruled out changing Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s self-imposed borrowing limits, while signalling that he is open to reducing the welfare bill if he becomes PM, suggesting some degree of fiscal discipline. That said, the market will likely remain concerned about how Burnham may seek flexibility within the fiscal rules. He was reportedly considering bringing forward a bolstered budget later in 2026, potentially combining it with the Autumn Budget, including an additional GBP 40bn to fund infrastructure and housing investment, alongside the removal of defence spending from existing fiscal rules. Perhaps most worrying for the market were his comments that the UK had to move beyond being “in hock” to bond markets, which contributed to the initial yield spike when he entered the PM race.
Having said that, we think Gilt markets have already embedded a meaningful near-term political risk premium. We expect them to remain rangebound for now, as investors await the Autumn Budget and Parliament enters its summer recess until September. Whether Reeves retains her position in the cabinet will also be closely monitored as a signal of continuity in fiscal policy.
The larger GBP risk will come after Burnham’s confirmation, particularly through his choice of chancellor and the credibility of his spending plans. Policies that promote investment and growth while respecting fiscal constraints would be broadly neutral to positive for the GBP. In contrast, unfunded spending commitments or a perceived weakening of fiscal discipline are likely to revive concerns over UK debt sustainability and weigh on the currency. Our base case is, therefore, a brief increase in GBP volatility, rather than a sustained directional move. GBP/USD is likely to remain more sensitive to the USD, US rate expectations, and upcoming UK fiscal announcements than to 17 July’s confirmation itself.Productivity gains to allow for less restrictive monetary policy: The inclusion of AI expertise signals the Fed’s interest in whether technology can lift productivity and affect labour market dynamics. The historical parallel is the late-1990s internet-led productivity boost, which allowed the Fed to keep policy less restrictive even as growth accelerated. Near term, AI capex may be inflationary, but over the long term, stronger productivity could prove disinflationary.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Gilt yields have already risen ahead of Andy Burnham’s confirmation as the next UK PM
UK 10-year government bond yield
GBP/USD in the range of 1.3300-1.3660
GBP/USD and technicals
Market performance summary*
*Performance in USD terms unless otherwise stated, 2026 YTD performance from 31 December 2025 to 16 July 2026; 1-week period: 9 July 2026 to 16 July 2026
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 7,645
Technical indicators for key markets as of 16 Jul close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 16 Jul close
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Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.