21 August 2026
Weekly Market View
Watching Warsh
at Jackson Hole
US bond markets have reached a pain threshold for the Trump team after the 30-year yield rose to its highest since 2007.
The US Treasury’s surprise announcement to “at least” double its bond buybacks is an attempt to curb the rise, but is unlikely to drag yields significantly lower.
Will the Fed help cap yields? Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole will be in focus. We prefer 3-5-year maturity bonds. As the Treasury seeks to contain bond yields, a softer USD is likely to serve as the pressure release valve, benefitting gold.
Beyond bonds, our confidence in the AI theme has been bolstered by another stellar earnings season and on-the-ground meetings with AI industry leaders in the US and Asia.
We have significantly revised up our AI capex estimates for this year and out to 2030. This is bullish for equities, especially US technology and communications services sectors.
Do you see the US 10-year government bond yield breaking above 5%?
How has your Global High Dividend Yield equities opportunistic idea performed?
What is your outlook on GBP/USD after it reached a three-month high?
Charts of the week: Financial repression – US style?
Gold gained and USD fell on US plans to curb bond yields; we’re more confident on the AI capex story on soaring demand
USD index (DXY) and gold price
Expected global AI capital expenditure until 2030
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Standard Chartered
Editorial
Watching Warsh at Jackson Hole
Strategy summary: US bond markets have reached a pain threshold for the Trump team after the 30-year yield rose to its highest since 2007. The US Treasury’s surprise announcement to “at least” double its bond buybacks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent pledging to buy more if needed, is an attempt to curb the rise, but is unlikely to drag yields significantly lower. Will the Fed help cap yields? Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole will be in focus. We prefer 3-5-year maturity bonds. As the Treasury seeks to contain bond yields, a softer USD is likely to serve as the pressure release valve, benefitting gold.
Beyond bonds, our confidence in the AI theme has been bolstered by another stellar earnings season and on-the-ground meetings with AI industry leaders in the US and Asia. We have significantly revised up our AI capex estimates for this year and out to 2030. This is bullish for equities, especially US technology and communications services sectors.
Bond yields reach a pain threshold. The US Treasury’s plan to “at least” double buybacks of 10-30-year bonds to USD 4bn suggests yields have reached a pain threshold for the Trump administration. However, the move is modest relative to the USD 30tn stock of marketable Treasuries, so it is unlikely to drive yields significantly lower. Primary drivers of higher yields are rising US debt and monetary policy uncertainty, after the Warsh-led Fed abandoned forward guidance on rates. A deluge of bond issuance from the AI hyperscalers has fuelled the fire.
Will Warsh ease the bond market pain? Fiscal uncertainty is unlikely to fade soon, with US national debt just crossing USD 40tn and set to rise further with increased defence spending. There is scope, though, for the Warsh-led Fed to ease some monetary policy uncertainty by clarifying its reaction function — specifically, how long it is willing to keep rates on hold to see inflation return to its 2% target. All eyes will be on Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for a signal, if not forward guidance.Incoming data should help Fed hold rates. The recent run of US macro data — softer payrolls, cooling inflation and a drop in
retail sales — supports our long-held non-consensus view that inflation peaked in Q2, while long-term inflation expectations stay subdued. The US statistical agency is also revising how it measures PCE inflation for portfolio and wealth management, software and legal services; these end-September changes should retroactively lower core PCE inflation over the past five years. Gradual disinflation, as oil and tariff pressures fade, should bring core inflation towards 2% by 2027, enabling the Fed to hold rates this year before cutting in 2027. The challenge for Warsh is keeping bond markets patient until then.
Rangebound yields, softer USD, bullish gold. With the US Treasury seeking to cap yields even as debt rises, we expect long bond yields to be rangebound. We prefer 3-5-year maturity bonds, which should benefit from continued disinflation and a softening job market. The USD is likely to serve as the pressure release valve — an outcome the Treasury should welcome, given its earlier joint intervention with Japan to strengthen the JPY. A softer USD should sustain the ongoing gold rally, while rangebound rather than rising yields is generally positive for equity valuations.
Further raising our AI capex forecasts. Following on-the-ground meetings with AI industry leaders in the US this month, we expect AI capex to grow 85% y/y in 2026 to USD 750bn, reaching USD 1tn in 2027. We have also lifted our long-term assumption to a 33% CAGR over 2025-30, from 32%. These forecasts are consistent with our meetings in Taiwan and Korea last month. We also see upside to hyperscalers’ cloud revenues amid strong token demand and robust backlog growth.
Stronger conviction on AI and US tech. With revised capex forecasts and greater confidence in AI monetisation, we reiterate our positive view on Big Tech and semiconductors within our Global Tech allocation. Accelerating cloud demand, rising token demand and backlogs and sustained management commitment reinforce our conviction that the AI investment cycle remains in its early stages, with no signs of a slowdown.
— Rajat Bhattacharya and Sundeep Gantori
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as negative for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: US Treasury debt buybacks, US-Canada trade deal
(-) factors: Slowing US consumer sentiment, weak China activity data, hawkish Fed meeting minutes
US retail sales contracted sharply m/m in July, while consumer sentiment declined in August
US Michigan consumer sentiment and retail sales control group (core retail sales)
Euro area and German expectations for economic growth exceeded expectations, marking the third consecutive month of improvement
Euro area and Germany ZEW survey expectations
China’s economic data for July showed broad-based domestic weakness
China retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth
Top client questions
Do you see the US 10-year government bond yield breaking above 5%?
Our view: We believe a decisive break above 5% on the 10-year US government bond yield is unlikely. We expect yields to consolidate within the 4.50-4.75% range, treating any surge above the upper bound as an opportunity to add. For now, we prefer patience over reaching for long-dated bonds.
Rationale: With the 10-year US government bond yield at c.4.65%, some 35bps separate the market from the 5% threshold – a modest gap, given the recent move’s velocity. The stress is concentrated at the tail, where the 30-year US bond yield breached 5.30% briefly (a near-20-year high) before retracing on the US Treasury’s expanded buyback plan. Medium-term yields have risen far less than very long-term ones, suggesting investors are demanding a higher term premium – ie, extra compensation for holding very long-dated bonds – rather than pricing in a change to the Fed’s policy path, which typically moves the shorter end of the yield curve.
We believethree factors are compounding this: Middle East conflict-driven oil above USD 90/bbl is rebuilding the inflation risk premium; AI-fuelled corporate issuance is competing for the same pool of long-duration capital; and waning foreign demand is eroding price-insensitive bids for government bonds. Softer US macro data is the sole counterweight but alone has failed to rally the long end. The Treasury’s bond buyback plan signals a willingness to actively manage disorderly long-end yield moves (‘Bessent put’). However, the bid looks more like a cushion for volatility spikes than a catalyst.
The July Fed minutes suggest that, given elevated inflation and the risk of upside surprises, policymakers are weighing the case for further hikes, though most participants prefer to await more data before moving. Set against that, data releases since the meeting have softened: wage growth has been slowing, July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months and housing starts declined as mortgage rates (closely tied to long-end yields) weigh on the property sector. Together, these should keep the Fed on hold through year-end. With the Fed funds rate anchored, the front end should exert a gravitational pull against a disorderly repricing further out the curve.
Absent upside inflation surprises, we expect the 10-year yield to consolidate within 4.50-4.75%. Overshoots above 5% are likely to be temporary. We would treat any move above 4.75% as an opportunity to add. For now, we prefer patience to reaching for long-dated bonds. Headline risk and issuance overhang at the long end argue against extending duration at current levels. With rate volatility concentrated at the tail, we see a compelling case for floating-rate and shorter-duration alternatives as portfolio diversifiers, with our opportunistic idea on AAA CLOs being a good example. Investors should weigh the benefits against geopolitical risk, wider spreads in areas such as mortgage-backed securities and deteriorating covenant protections in parts of the leveraged credit market.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
Long-end yields have risen more than the rest of the US bond yield curve over the past month
US government bond yield curve (%)
High mortgage rates are weighing on the US property sector
US housing starts, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 30-year contract rate
Top client questions (cont’d)
What does China’s latest Q2 earnings season tell us?
Our view: China’s Q2 earnings season has fared well, with modest upgrades to full-year 2026 earnings growth forecasts. We remain Overweight China equities, given policy support, AI localisation tailwinds and undemanding valuations.
Rationale: China’s Q2 earnings season has fared well, with full-year 2026 earnings growth forecasts now upgraded to 12.5% y/y. However, the upside is not broad-based. AI infrastructure, pharmaceuticals and energy are delivering strong results, while autos are also beating forecasts by compensating for sluggish domestic demand with robust exports. In contrast, consumer-facing businesses – such as food and beverage, apparel and property – continue to struggle under the weight of soft domestic demand and weak household consumption. Internet names are betting on cloud as the main source of upside, as hefty AI investments pressure cash flows and margins in Q2.
We remain Overweight China equities within Asia ex-Japanon policy support and AI localisation tailwinds,including the national AI fund, over CNY 35trn of ‘Six Networks’ infrastructure spend concentrated in the 15th Five-year Plan, over 80% domestic-hardware mandates, the anti-involution campaign and equity-market revitalisation efforts, all of which point to a positive outlook. Valuations also appear undemanding relative to the tech innovation and AI opportunity, with the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio trading at 11x vs. a 12x five-year average.
— Cindy Lam, CFA, Senior Investment Strategist
China’s 2026 earnings growth forecasts have seen steady upgrades since June
2026 and 2027 consensus earnings growth projections for MSCI China
How has your Global High Dividend equity opportunistic idea performed since launch? Is it likely to be resilient across different market environments?
Our view: Our Global High Dividend idea has returned 6.9% since inception on 18 June 2026, outperforming the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 532bps in USD terms through 20 August. Bloomberg data shows a forward dividend yield of 4.9% vs. 1.9% for ACWI, along with lower volatility.
Rationale: To assess resilience across market environments, Bloomberg data since 2015 shows the Global High Dividend Index’s median drawdown was 9.0% vs. 10.9% for ACWI. Resilience was clearest in 2022, when inflation and rising rates pressured growth stocks: volatility was 16.3% vs. 19.4%, maximum drawdown was 22.2% vs. 26.4% and returns were -7.0% vs. -18.4%. Conversely, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic shock, both volatility and maximum drawdown were higher than for ACWI. Overall, the record supports the idea’s role as a higher-income equity allocation with modest downside cushioning on balance, rather than an all-weather defensive strategy.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
Global High Dividend Index has exhibited lower volatility than ACWI, especially in recent years
12-month rolling volatility of the Global High Dividend Index and MSCI ACWI
Top client questions (cont’d)
Does the Swiss franc’s (CHF’s) recent strength suggest a shift in safe haven flows from the USD to the CHF? Do you see any overspill to gold?
Our view: CHF strength reflects both increased safe haven demand and broad USD weakness. Gold is also benefiting from these factors.
Rationale: The US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement has lowered US government bond yields and weakened the USD. US fiscal and bond-market outlook concerns support demand for the CHF and gold. However, this does not imply a complete shift in safe-haven flows from the USD to the CHF. Instead, this suggests that broad USD repricing remains an important driver. Moreover, the buybacks are small relative to the c.USD 30trn government bond market and are primarily intended to improve market liquidity.
Our USD/CHF forecast of 0.78 is supported by softer US inflation and labour market data, which has reduced further Fed tightening expectations. The CHF also benefits from Switzerland’s current-account surplus, low government debt, policy stability and safe-haven status. However, low Swiss inflation, the SNB’s 0% policy rate and possible intervention suggest the move is unlikely to be one-way. Gold’s break above USD 4,400/oz strengthens its technical outlook. We remain constructive on gold, targeting USD 4,900/oz, although the rapid rally increases near-term profit-taking risk.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/CHF faces further downside risk as the USD reprices
USD/CHF and technicals
What is your outlook on GBP/USD after it reached a three-month high recently?
Our view: A restrictive BoE stance and continued USD weakness are expected to support the GBP in the near term. However, the move above 1.36 appears stretched. Investors with long GBP positions can consider partly locking in gains while retaining some exposure should USD weakness extend.
Rationale: GBP/USD’s rise to a three-month high has been driven mainly by broad USD weakness, recently reinforced by the US Treasury’s expanded bond buybacks and lower long-dated US government bond yields, rather than a stronger UK outlook.
Domestic support for the GBP is less convincing. The UK unemployment rate has risen to 4.9%, job vacancies have fallen to their lowest since 2021 and private-sector wage growth has slowed to 2.8% y/y, its weakest since 2020. Meanwhile, UK headline inflation rose from 2.6% y/y to 2.9% y/y in July, largely due to higher household energy costs. This leaves the BoE facing weaker growth and externally driven inflation. GBP/USD is likely to remain supported if USD weakness continues, but its rapid rise above 1.36 raises the risk of near-term consolidation towards 1.35.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
GBP/USD is approaching overbought territory; we expect a near-term moderate technical correction
GBP/USD and technicals
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 7,867
Technical indicators for key markets as of 20 Aug close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 20 Aug close
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Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Global Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.