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24 August 2026

Equity Conviction Note

Nasdaq Inc

Index revenue explodes higher

Why invest

  • Nasdaq (NDAQ) is a global technology company that serves the capital markets and other industries with data, software and services. We have a conviction buy on the stock with a 12-month target price of USD 125.
  • Cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and requests for comments on 24/7 trading and perpetual futures will dominate the exchange landscape in H2.
  • Nasdaq is well positioned to benefit from a wave of mega-cap IPOs and record capital markets activity, including securing the SpaceX listing and SK Hynix ADR listing.

Highlights

Nasdaq’s growth remained robust at 13% in 2025 and is expected to reach 12% in 2026. This growth is driven by Market Services benefiting from retail engagement and 23/5 trading hours launching December 2026. Index revenue exploded 38% higher in Q2 with AUM crossing USD 1trn, up from under USD 200bn in 2018. Verafin delivered 22% growth with 110% net revenue retention across 2,800+ institutions in the USD 3trn financial crime prevention market.

Margins surged 180bps to 55.6% in 2025 from Adenza synergies and a further 150bps improvement is expected in 2026 as growth continues while costs remain controlled. Nasdaq has demonstrated consistent execution with margins rising from 47% in 2017. Q2 net revenue of USD 1.50bn grew 15% with accelerating growth for three straight quarters.

Nasdaq projects 15% annual EPS growth from FY25-FY27, building on 12% EPS CAGR over the past decade. The company returned USD 530mn to shareholders in Q2 2026 through dividends and repurchases.

Fook Hien Yap

Senior Investment Strategist

Robin Xie, CFA

Senior Investment Strategist

Cindy Lam, CFA

Senior Investment Strategist

Ryan Goh

Investment Strategist

Jason Wong

Senior Equity Analyst


12-month target price for NDAQ is USD 125

Share price chart and recommendation history

Source: CFRA, FactSet, Standard Chartered
Key indicators
Stock name Nasdaq, Inc.
Sector Financials
Country United States
BBG/Reuters NDAQ US / NDAQ.O
ISIN/SEDOL US6311031081 / 2965107
Market cap USD 55bn
Last price USD 98.22
Consensus view 15/0/2 of Buy / Sell / Hold
CFRA rating 5-stars (Strong Buy)
52-week high/low USD 101.0 / 76.85
Source: FactSet, Standard Chartered at 10:52am SST on 24-Aug-2026.

 
Sustainalytics ESG risk rating
NEGL LOW MED HIGH SEVERE
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40+

14.9

Low Risk

Morningstar Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings provides a multi-dimensional assessment of a company’s exposure to industry-specific material ESG risks and its management of those risks.
Source: Sustainalytics

 

Rationale

Nasdaq is a global technology company serving the capital markets and other industries. Its products include data, analytics, software, exchange capabilities, and client-centric services. Nasdaq is divided into 3 main business segments: 1) Capital Access Platform (41% of 2025 net revenue); 2) Financial Technology (35%); and 3) Market Services (23%).

Our conviction buy on Nasdaq reflects severely mispriced valuation despite accelerating growth and expanding margins. Index momentum is exploding with record USD 51bn quarterly net inflows and strong product pipeline. Verafin (anti-financial crime software) represents the crown jewel with 11 enterprise signings in 2026 exceeding all of 2025, while Agentic AI deployment delivers up to 80% efficiency gains. The 23/5 trading extension addresses volume in less transparent venues, driving immediate international data demand.

ESG Snippets

As one of the most prominent exchanges in the global financial market, strong consumer trust is a cornerstone to Nasdaq’s ability to continue operating profitably. Malfunctions in trading and clearance software or inability to efficiently execute transactions may erode this trust, damage its reputation and attract potential litigation and regulatory fines.

Risks

Include (1) pricing deterioration; (2) adverse regulation; (3) slower Anti-Financial Crime market share gains; (4) declining trading volumes; (5) cybersecurity incidents; and (6) operational disruptions. The stock is sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds pressuring IPO activity and client technology spending.

Target Price

The 12-month target price of USD 125 applies a forward P/E of 26.9x on 2027 EPS estimate of USD 4.64, above Nasdaq’s five-year average of 23.4x. Shares should trade at premium to peer average of 19.9x given higher recurring revenue and consistent earnings. Nasdaq traded 17-28x forward P/E over three years.

Quant Ranking Tool Output

The stock currently ranks highest in our 5-point scale Quant Ranking Tool. Historically such stocks have posted an average annual return of 18%.


NDAQ’s 12-month forward consensus P/E multiple and expected EPS growth are above its peers

Consensus 12-month ahead forecasts for peer comparison

Source: Standard Chartered, FactSet
Notes: Refers to 12-month forward return on equity and valuations. The larger the size of the “bubble” the larger is the company’s market capitalisation. Views expressed in this report have a time horizon of 12 months.

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Sustainable Investments

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