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- North America
- Europe ex-UK
- United Kingdom (UK)
- Japan
- Asia ex-Japan
- DM IG Government bonds
- DM IG Corporate bonds
- DM HY Corporate bonds
- EM USD Government bonds
- EM LCY Government bonds
- Asia USD bonds
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- We retain a core holding (Neutral) on global equities and anticipate they will perform in line with bonds while outperforming cash. We are Overweight US equities, underpinned by our expectation that Fed rate cuts will lead to a soft-landing for the US economy. Earnings growth remains robust, and macro data remain healthy. However, near-term risks include a cooling labour market and the US elections in November.
- UK equities are also a core holding (Neutral), with an attractive dividend yield and valuation discount, alongside improving economic data. While UK equities offer a defensive sector composition, the lack of growth sectors could limit outperformance. We are Underweight Europe ex-UK equities given a deteriorating earnings outlook, despite their cheap valuations.
- Asia ex-Japan equities are a core holding (Neutral). Within the region, we are Overweight India equities. Domestic investors have continued to add exposure, even as foreign investors have partly reallocated into China. We believe Indian equities will continue to demonstrate strong earnings and robust economic growth over the medium term. China equities are a core holding (Neutral), with ongoing policy easing measures likely to help mitigate concerns about economic growth. Japan equities are also a core holding (Neutral), supported by improving share buybacks and a reflationary environment, although they face the risk of a stronger JPY due to a potential unwinding of the so-called carry trade.
The bullish case:
- Strong earnings growth
- Room for rate cuts
The bearish case:
- Elevated valuations
- Political risk
The bullish case:
- Appealing corporates’ buyback & dividend
- Cheap valuations
- Loosening policies from the ECB
The bearish case:
- Deteriorating earnings outlook
- Increasing geopolitical tensions
- Slump in economic sentiment
The bullish case:
- Attractive valuations
- Dividend yield
The bearish case:
- Low earnings growth
- Fiscal risk
The bullish case:
- Reasonable valuations
- Rising dividends/share buybacks
The bearish case:
- Expected JPY strength
The bullish case:
- Earnings rebound
- China policy support
The bearish case:
- China growth concerns
- US election risk
- We maintain a balanced allocation between government bonds (rates) and corporate and Emerging Market (EM) USD bonds (credits). Higher rates volatility, in our view, has presented opportunities to raise exposure to bonds as yields have surged.
- Developed Market Investment Grade (DM IG) government bonds remain a core holding (Neutral). We believe concerns over the Fed easing less than initially expected and US fiscal deficits are overstated, enhancing the asset class’s risk-reward appeal. However, given the near-term upside risks to yields, we have adjusted our 3-month target for the US 10-year yield to 4.00-4.25%.
- DM IG corporate bonds remain a core holding (Neutral) alongside DM High Yield (HY) corporate bonds. Although yield premiums are close to historically tight levels, strong fundamentals and our expectation of a US economic soft-landing support their valuations, in our view.
- EM assets, such as EM USD and local currency government bonds and Asia USD bonds, are core holdings (Neutral). We believe rising geopolitical risks ahead of the US election and potential declines in global industrial commodity prices are balanced by supportive fundamentals. Additionally, we have a balanced view between Asia IG and HY bonds.
The bullish case:
- High credit quality
- Attractive yields
The bearish case:
- High sensitivity to monetary policy
- Fiscal risk
The bullish case:
- High credit quality,
- Sensitive to falling yields
The bearish case:
- Elevated valuations
The bullish case:
- Attractive yield
- Low rate sensitivity
The bearish case:
- Elevated valuations
- Sensitive to growth
The bullish case:
- Attractive yield
- Sensitive to US rates
The bearish case:
- Commodity prices
The bullish case:
- Attractive yield
- Room for policy rate cuts
The bearish case:
- USD strength
- US election risk
The bullish case:
- Moderate yield
- Policy support
The bearish case:
- China structural growth concerns
- We raise our 3-month gold forecast to USD 2,800/oz, while maintaining gold at Overweight relative to other major asset classes. Gold extended its rally in October, breaking above USD 2,700/oz to fresh record-highs, as investors piled into the yellow metal amid the heightened geopolitical risk backdrop. The rebound in both real and nominal bond yields amid hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations did little to drag down the precious metal – this suggests that gold has several tailwinds and the underlying inflows remain strong, in our view. Tactical positioning is crowded, but it is supported by an increasingly positive sentiment towards gold. Gold ETF holdings have risen substantially in recent weeks, but remain well below their peak. Based on these trends, we expect further upside for gold in the coming months.
- We see more upside risk for oil prices following the recent plunge. Reports suggesting rising prospects of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict and the avoidance of significant escalation amid tit-for-tat strikes across the region helped unwind the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil prices. Meanwhile, tactical positioning hovers near a record short level. The combination of near-record short positioning and depressed prices raises the odds of a reversal. Moreover, OPEC+ may delay its output tapering plan a second time, especially after the recent price slump. Technically, prices close to USD 67/bbl have been a strong support level on several occasions in the past two years. Thus, we raise our 3-month WTI oil forecast to USD 75/bbl. In the longer term, we expect the demand-supply balance to shift to a surplus (details below), exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
The bullish case:
- Portfolio hedge
- Central bank demand
- Falling real rates
The bearish case:
- Resilient USD
The bullish case:
- Resilient global economies
- Supply disruptions
- Geopolitical risk premium
- Low inventories
- US shale underinvestment
- US SPR refill
- Extreme bearish positioning
The bearish case:
- Tight monetary policies; growth slowdown
- Redirection of Russian oil flows
- Significant global spare capacity
- OPEC+ supply hikes and discipline
- Lower demand from energy transition
- Elevated non-OPEC supply
The bullish case:
- Diversifier characteristics
The bearish case:
- Equity, corporate bond volatility
- Our Multi-Asset Income (MAI) strategy has delivered strong returns of 5.8% over the most recent three months ended 26 September 2024. Returns picked up since the start of the third quarter on the back of Fed’s easing expectations, driving a broad-based rally in both bond and equity markets. The performance of high-dividend equities caught up, after languishing for much of the year behind global equities, as investors grew more confident of a soft-landing to broaden out from tech-heavy global equities into high-dividend equities. Our MAI model now yields c.5.8%, dipping below the 6% mark for the first time this year.
- MAI yield down slightly (5.6% as of 31 August 2024), but total return prospects still compelling against cash. The Fed’s recent outsized 50bps cut should help the case for a US economic soft-landing, benefitting dividend equities and rate-sensitive assets such as infrastructure equities, REITs and bonds within the MAI strategy. Historically, easing cycles during soft-landing episodes tend to be supportive of both credit and bonds. The MAI strategy, with an almost 60% allocation to rate sensitive assets, is well-positioned to benefit from the Fed easing cycle. With cash yields likely to continue declining (see page 9), income strategies can offer an attractive alternative given their better return and yield potential.
- USD
- EUR
- JPY
- GBP
- AUD
- ASIA EX-JAPAN
+ US fundamentals surprise on the upside
– Dovish Fed, expensive valuation
+ ECB unlikely to cut rate aggressively
– Slower growth relative to US
+ BoJ policy normalisation pace is slow
– Further BoJ rate hikes, surge in QT size
+ BoE cautious approach amid inflation uptick
– Recession risk, consumption weakness
+ RBA holds rates for longer, strong gold prices
– China’s modest recovery
The bullish case:
+ SGD vulnerable to weak global growth
+ Revaluation of S$NEER
The bearish case:
– Resilient domestic growth
– CNH’s rebound
USD/INR
The bullish case:
+ RBI to continue to absorb capital inflows
+ Further strengthening in FX reserves
The bearish case:
– Lower oil price to ease current account deficit
– Strong growth; inflows
USD/MYR
The bullish case:
+ BNM is likely to reduce its record-high forward sales
+ Replenish FX reserves
The bearish case:
– Reversal in local dollarization trends
– Resilient GDP growth
USD/KRW
The bullish case:
+ Vulnerability to global growth and trade
+ Reliance on USD and CNH trend
The bearish case:
– Export growth and tourism inflows
– Cheap value; inflows
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Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.