14 November 2025
Weekly Market View
The US is back in business
The end of the record US government shutdown is positive for risk sentiment. Nevertheless, the data fog is likely to continue for a while, raising market volatility, as key jobs and inflation data for October may never be released.
This raises the risk that the Fed may skip a rate cut in December as it seeks more clarity. Any resultant near-term rise in US government bond yields would be an opportunity to add to high quality bonds since we expect the Fed to eventually cut rates again to support a cooling job market.
To balance emerging risks from bond market volatility, we maintain a barbell approach towards equities, hedging our exposure to relatively expensive US equities by adding exposure to Asia ex-Japan, where valuations remain attractive.
In the US, we add to the defensive utilities and pharma equity sectors, while remaining constructive on the AI-driven technology sector. We stay bullish on gold due to structural drivers.
Bullish US utilities and pharma sector equities – AI-related demand, easing regulations
Bullish on gold – structural demand from EM central banks, lift from Fed rate cuts
Bullish bias on USD/CHF – Swiss intervention risk to cap CHF strength
Charts of the week: Finding value in Asia ex-Japan
Asia ex-Japan equities have outperformed US peers over the past 12 months, but remain relatively inexpensive
12-month forward P/E ratio vs. performance of equity markets*
Consensus 2025-26 earnings estimates of top Asian markets
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Standard Chartered; *MSCI USD equity indices
Editorial
The US is back in business
Strategy summary: The end of the record US government shutdown is positive for risk sentiment. Nevertheless, the data fog is likely to continue for a while, raising market volatility, as key jobs and inflation data for October may never be released. This raises the risk that the Fed may skip a rate cut in December as policymakers seek more clarity. Any resultant near-term rise in US government bond yields would be an opportunity to add to high quality bonds since we expect the Fed to eventually cut rates again to support a cooling job market.
To balance emerging risks from bond market volatility, we maintain a barbell approach towards equities, hedging our exposure to relatively expensive US equities by adding exposure to Asia ex-Japan, especially in China, where valuations remain attractive. In the US, we add to the defensive utilities and pharma equity sectors, while remaining constructive on the AI-driven, high growth technology sector. We stay bullish on gold due to structural drivers.
The US government is back in business. The government’s restart after a record 43-day shutdown is positive for risk sentiment. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown could hurt US Q4 GDP growth by 1.5ppt, but almost half of that is likely to be recouped in Q1 as workers get backpay and federal programmes resume. However, the data fog will continue as October’s official inflation and job market numbers may never be reported in full. Adding to the uncertainty, the cross-party deal to fund the government lasts until 30 Jan. Democrats plan to impose another government shutdown early next year unless the Republicans agree to extend healthcare (Obamacare) subsidies which expire at the end of the year.
Alternative data shows the US job market continues to cool. While the stale US jobs data for September is likely to be released next week, we will have to rely on alternative data from the private sector to assess the state of the US economy since October. Employment components of ISM PMI data continued to show contraction in both manufacturing and services in October. NFIB’s small business survey for October showed hiring plans fell for the first time since May, while labour quality remained the top challenge for businesses. The weekly initial jobless claims from states have risen in recent weeks but remain within their historical range for this time of the year.
Opportunity in bonds. The limited data set has added to caution among Fed policymakers; a growing number expressed the need to hold rates amid uncertainty about the impact of tariff on inflation. This raises the bar for a rate cut on 10 December, which in turn raises the risk of further near-term upside in US government bond yields. Nevertheless, we see policymakers ultimately cutting rates to support the cooling job market. Thus, we see any near-term rise in the US 10-year government yield towards 4.25% as an opportunity to add to high quality bonds.
Maintain a barbell strategy across global equities: As US bond market volatility rises, elevated US valuations and positioning warrant a barbell strategy in equities. Globally, we add exposure to the relatively inexpensive Asia ex-Japan equity markets, while remaining invested in the AI-fuelled, high earnings growth-driven US equity market (Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday will be in focus). Asia ex-Japan has outperformed US equities this year as global investors continue to be attracted to the region’s relatively inexpensive valuations.
… And a barbell strategy in US equities: In the US, we add exposure to the defensive utilities and pharma sectors, where earnings are likely to get a boost from AI investments and government policies, to balance our long-standing preference for the growth-oriented technology sectors. (see page 4)
Upside in gold: Gold has received strong support around USD 3,900 after the recent pullback from its record-breaking rally this year. We continue to see strong structural demand from Emerging Market central banks and cyclical support from upcoming Fed rate cuts driving prices higher towards USD 4,300/oz, and then towards USD 4,500/oz over 12 months. The gold mining equity sector remains a higher beta (more volatile) opportunity to benefit from higher gold prices. (see page 6)
— Rajat Bhattacharya
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: End to US government shutdown; easing deflationary pressures in China
(-) factors: Weak US consumer/business sentiment and rising inflation pressures; cautious Fed officials
Weak US consumer and business sentiment in November is driven by concerns over the government shutdown and high inflation
US Michigan consumer sentiment and Michigan 1-year inflation expectations
Euro area headline inflation eased to 2.1% y/y in October, nearing the ECB’s 2% target; this raises the chance of one last 25bps rate cut in December
Euro area Sentix investor confidence and ZEW Survey of economic growth expectations
China’s consumer prices returned to growth in October, while export and import growth came in below estimates
China export and import growth; consumer and producer price inflation
Top client questions
What are the key takeaways from the earnings season for US pharma and utilities? Are there any near-term catalysts?
Our view: Average into US pharma now and add exposure to US utilities amid easing regulations and AI-related demand.
Rationale: The US healthcare sector delivered strong Q3 results, with 93% of reporting companies beating consensus earnings expectations, compared to 83% for the S&P500 index (source: LSEG I/B/E/S). The utilities sector also delivered strong Q3 results, with a beat from 75% of reporting companies, although this lagged the high bar set by the market. Within US healthcare, we favour the pharma sector, where we see receding regulatory headwinds.
Investor positioning data suggests that the US pharma sector may be overcrowded now after a strong run. However, we believe its 12-month forward PE valuation of 15x (compared to 23x for the S&P500) continues to be attractive. The expansion of GLP-1 drugs’ availability for the government’s Medicare/Medicaid programmes and further agreements between the pharma sector and the government would be positive for the sector. Utilities also trade at an attractive valuation discount, with defensive earnings growth, boosted by the data centre buildout as part of AI investments. Data centre construction may face supply chain constraints, though longer-term demand for power remains positive.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
US pharma sector’s 2025 earnings growth has been revised higher, and 2026 growth revised lower. US utilities earnings growth has been stable
Consensus 2025 and 2026 earnings growth estimates for the US pharma and utilities sectors
Would a potential trade deal between the US and India provide any near-term catalyst for India equities?
Our View: While China continues to be an Overweight within Asia ex-Japan, India stays as a solid core holding within our allocation to Asia ex-Japan equities.
Rationale: In a key development in US-India trade negotiations, President Trump signalled a potential reduction in tariffs on India, a positive development after months of uncertainty. Indian equities have underperformed their global peers YTD amid tepid earnings, higher-than-peer’s US tariffs and expensive valuations, leading to significant foreign investor outflows (USD 16bn YTD).
We see room for an easing of recent pressures with the current earnings season indicates the bottoming out of the earnings cycle. Decisive policy support through GST and income tax cuts, along with frontloaded policy rate cuts and favourable liquidity conditions are likely to trigger a consumption-led growth cycle with possible upgrades to EPS estimates in the coming quarters. Narrower equity valuation premium relative to Asia-ex Japan and Emerging market peers, and low foreign investor positioning towards Indian equities are additional tailwinds.
— Michelle Castelino, Investment Strategist, India
India’s earnings are expected to steadily recover over the coming years
EPS growth estimates for India’s Nifty 50 Index
Top client questions (cont’d)
What are the investment implications as the US government shutdown ends?
Our View: Overweight US equities, with preference for IT, utilities and healthcare sectors. Support for the DXY at 99.5.
Rationale: Historically, US government shutdowns have had limited impact on equity markets, with the median 6-month S&P 500 return at a modest 0.5% during shutdowns since the 1980s. In the recently-ended shutdown, the index gained 0.7% (as of 13 Nov). The next phase of the rally will hinge upon the release of US economic data and Fed rate expectations. We expect resilient US earnings projections and a soft-landing economic scenario, underpinned by Fed easing policies to provide a constructive backdrop for equities into year-end. Reflecting our cautiously optimistic stance, we continue to employ a barbell strategy across sectors – favouring growth opportunities in the US technology, while maintaining exposure to defensive areas such as utilities and pharmaceuticals.
Despite the re-opening of the US government, some US data may not be released (e.g. CPI), clouding the outlook. Meanwhile, some Fed policymakers have noted inflation remains the greater risk to the economy. They favour keeping rates steady until it is clear the central bank is on track to reach its 2% goal. Thus, the USD (DXY) index is likely to consolidate around 99.5 in the coming week.
— Anthony Naab, CFA, Investment Strategist
Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Fed rate cuts are usually supportive of equities in non-recessionary scenarios
6-month return of the S&P500 index during soft- and hard-landing scenarios during previous Fed rate cutting cycles vs. current performance
*Fed rate cuts starting in 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2024 resulted in economic soft-landings, while cuts in 1990, 2001, 2007 and 2019 failed to prevent recessions
Market expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled significantly. What does that mean for US government bonds?
Our view: Insufficient macro-economic data releases add to the economic and policy uncertainty. Add to US 10-year government bond yield if it rebounds to 4.20% or higher.
Rationale: The US government bond market has been volatile over the last few weeks. After Fed Chair Powell and other officials signalled another rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion”, the probability of a 25bps cut in December has cooled from over 80% to roughly 50%. The short-duration money market has been particularly noisy on headlines around the halting of Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Treasury’s refinancing plan and the potential impact of Supreme Court ruling over the legality of US tariffs.
US government bond yields have rebounded on fiscal concerns and potential supply pressure, with the 10-year bond yield rising to around 4.15%, before finding technical support around 4.08%. The incoming labour market data thus far suggests employment growth has lost momentum, and payrolls have weakened further. Thus, we retain our view of a 25bps cut in December.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
US real (net-of-inflation) yields are relatively high when compared with the Euro area and the UK
US, UK and Euro area 10-year real bond yields based on headline consumer inflation
Top client questions (cont’d)
Can gold maintain its positive momentum?
Our view: We maintain our bullish 3- and 12-month outlook on gold at USD 4,300/oz and USD 4,500/oz. We are also opportunistically bullish on gold mining equities.
Rationale: Gold has resumed its advance after a brief pullback towards USD 3,900/oz from this year’s record-breaking rally.
We see medium-term upside supported by softer real rates, a weaker USD, and sustained buying from EM central banks. With EM central bank gold reserves still relatively low versus developed markets, the case for structural demand growth remains intact.
We maintain our 3- and 12-month price estimates of USD 4,300/oz and USD 4,500/oz, respectively, and would look to add on dips toward technical support around the USD 4,000–4,050 region.
Additionally, we remain opportunistically constructive on gold-mining equities as a complementary exposure to leverage on gold’s upside. Gold producers continue to benefit from higher profit margins and surging free cash flows, though investors should remain mindful of higher volatility and operational risks relative to the metal itself.
— Anthony Naab, CFA, Investment Strategist
Gold has bounced back from a key support level around USD 3,900/oz; we expect further gains over the medium term towards USD 4,500/oz
Gold spot price, with key technical support levels
How will a potential US trade deal with Switzerland impact your view on USD/CHF?
Our View: USD/CHF and EUR/CHF are likely to range-trade, with a bullish bias, over the next few weeks amid Swiss intervention risk.
Reports suggest the US and Switzerland are close to securing a trade deal, involving 15% tariff on Swiss exports to the US, with a deal expected to be concluded within the next two weeks. We believe the market has priced in much of the good news, with USD/CHF recently slipping below the critical 0.80 mark. However, we see limited downside risk for the pair amid growing risk the SNB could intervene to prevent excessive CHF strength (which hurts Swiss exports and increases deflation pressures). We see USD/CHF rebounding towards 0.81 in the near term. Meanwhile EUR/CHF is likely to test its resistance at 0.9360.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/CHF likely to rebound amid Swiss central bank intervention risk
USD/CHF and technicals
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,920
Technical indicators for key markets as of 13 Nov close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 13 Nov close
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As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.