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      Market views on-the-go
      Tap into our global resources to analyse the financial markets around the world
      Featured Articles
      28 October 2022We continue to see multi-asset income generation strategies providing some of the best opportunities, given the decade-high yields… 2 December 2022The last quarter of the calendar year is historically one of the strongest quarters for risk assets. This year, global stocks have… 21 October 2022Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee delivered his Policy Address on 19 October. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.4% on the day…
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      House Views across asset classes
      Overweight
      Underweight
      Neutral
      AS AT 28 OCTOBER 2022
      Display All
      Equity
      • United States of America
      • Europe ex-UK
      • United Kingdom (UK)
      • Non-Asia Emerging Markets
      • Japan
      • Asia ex-Japan
      Bonds
      • DM IG Government bonds
      • DM IG Corporate bonds
      • DM HY Corporate bonds
      • EM USD Government bonds
      • EM LCY Government bonds
      • Asia USD bonds
      Commodities
      • Crude Oil
      • Gold
      Alternatives
        Multi-Asset
          Equity – at a glance
          28 OCTOBER 2022
          • Global equities remain a core holding on a 12-month horizon even as we remain cautious over the next few months, given our expectation for front-loaded US interest rate hikes. We believe the rate hiking cycle can pause once the Fed sees clear signs that inflation is falling consistently towards the 2% target. We expect a clear downtrend in inflation over the next 12-months.
          • The US Q3 earnings season is currently underway. According to Refinitiv, 45% of companies in the S&P500 have reported as of 27-Oct, with 74% of those which reported beating earnings expectations. Historically, 66% of companies “beat expectations” on average; so this is a positive sign, although 2023 earnings growth estimates are being trimmed on cautious guidance. With valuations having derated significantly, we maintain US equities as a core holding.
          • Asia ex-Japan remains a preferred region, where we see the strongest earnings growth in 2023. We expect supportive government policies in Mainland China to support growth in 2023. Although there is no official guidance on the easing of COVID-19 lockdowns, we expect some easing post-winter, which would be supportive of the 2023 growth when it happens.
          • UK equities is another preferred region, with attractive valuations, though we prefer to take exposure on a currency-hedged basis, given a volatile GBP. We have a core view of Japan equities, where we expect it can perform in line with global equities, and we have a less preferred view of Euro area equities, given energy cost pressures, a growth slowdown and rising interest rates.
          North America equities – Core holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Still-strong demand supporting earnings

          The bearish case:

          • Faster Fed tightening
          • Rising cost pressures
          Europe ex-UK equities – Less Preferred holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Still-supportive ECB policy

          The bearish case:

          • Ukraine crisis impact
          • Rising cost pressures
          UK equities – Preferred holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Attractive valuations
          • dividend yield

          The bearish case:

          • Policy, Brexit-related uncertainty
          Japan Equities – Core holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Easy BoJ policy

          The bearish case:

          • Global slowdown
          • structural deflation
          Asia ex-Japan equities – Preferred holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Earnings rebound
          • China policy support

          The bearish case:

          • COVID-19 risk
          • weak Chinese demand
          Bonds – at a glance
          28 OCTOBER 2022
          • The 10-year US Treasuries yield retreated after failing to break above technical resistance of 4.34%. We expect the yield to stay above 4% into year end, before edging lower towards 3.50-3.75% in 2023 as higher recession risks and a potential Fed pivot start to be priced in. We do not expect the Fed to capitulate soon, given a still-strong job market. However, signposts such as peaking inflation, a slowing labour market and a softer housing market would likely point to a potential Fed pause ahead.
          • Developed Market (DM) Investment Grade (IG) corporate bonds remain a preferred holding. We believe their risk and reward has grown more attractive after the spike in yields.
          • We also like Asia USD bonds, despite the notable market volatility recently. We believe their predominantly IG rating, on average, should help mitigate a likely surge in credit risk should a recession come due. Also, we assess the impact of the Chinese property sector on this bond asset class is likely to be contained going forward, with the distressed sector’s share having fallen substantially to single digit.
          Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less preferred
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • High credit quality
          • moderate yields

          The bearish case:

          • Still-hawkish Fed
          • inflation
          Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Preferred holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • High credit quality
          • moderate yields

          The bearish case:

          • Sensitive to rising US bond yields
          Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Core holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Attractive yield
          • low rate sensitivity

          The bearish case:

          • Falling credit quality
          Emerging Market USD government bonds – Core holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Attractive yield
          • attractive value

          The bearish case:

          • Sensitive to rising yields
          • falling EM credit quality
          Emerging Market Local currency bonds – Less preferred
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Moderate yield

          The bearish case:

          • USD strength
          • rising policy rates in some EMs
          Asia USD bonds – Preferred holding
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          The bullish case:

          • Moderate yield
          • low volatility

          The bearish case:

          • Default contagion risks
          Commodities – at a glance
          28 OCTOBER 2022
          Crude Oil
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          We remain neutral on oil prices over a 12-month horizon given the high probability of a recession. Demand will continue to contract as central banks stick to the course of policy tightening. On the supply side, we have already seen 2.1mb/d of cut in the last two meetings. OPEC+ is likely to react accordingly to ensure a balanced demand-supply dynamic in oil markets. However, we remain constructive on oil prices in the next three months as demand outweighs the still-tight supply. Looming EU sanctions, the proposed oil price cap and tapering oil reserve release could tighten supply and increase the volatility of oil prices.

          Gold
          28 OCTOBER 2022

          We continue to see gold as a core holding and a key portfolio diversifier. Gold prices have remained in a downtrend channel since the peak earlier in February. Rising yields and unyielding USD strength are exerting downward pressure on gold as the Fed stays on its tightening path. Tactical and ETF interest continues to wane as a result; YTD net flows turned negative in September. Having said that, we expect the physical market to pick up the baton from here as we enter the seasonally strong period for consumption. The recent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to drive safe-haven flows to gold, keeping it well supported. On a 12-month horizon, we believe gold will move higher as bond yields moderate and the USD rolls over.

          Alternatives at a glance
          28 OCTOBER 2022
          • As we discussed in the Investment Strategy section, the Fed’s still-hawkish tone is once again putting downward pressure on risky assets. Against this backdrop, we continue to see Liquid Alternative Strategies as a strong core holding, particularly in a market where correlations across major asset classes continue to be unusually high.
            
          • Our top pick continues to be the global macro/commodity trading advisor (CTA) sub-strategy. First, it has a historical track record of delivering positive returns during the past economic recessions, outperforming other alternative strategies. Second, they have successfully benefited from the rising trend in bond yields, which we believe makes it an attractive strategy in today’s market environment for both returns and portfolio diversification.
            
          • We retain equity hedge strategies as a core holding. On the upside, they remain one interesting way to retain some exposure to equities in today’s volatile markets given they have a positive correlation with global equities, but with a lower ‘beta’ – ie, they tend to underperform during periods of rising equity markets, but downside volatility tends to be much more limited relative to long-only equities given their long/short approach. Having said that, the correlation with equities is still a positive one, at least at a broad asset class level; hence, they are unlikely to be immune to significant drawdowns in global equities.
            
          • We continue to view Event Driven strategies as less preferred. Rising interest rates and recession concerns remain significant headwinds to M&A volume, which remains a key driver of this asset class. A worsening growth and credit quality outlook would benefit distressed strategies, though these remain small as a component of the sub-asset class. We also continue to see Relative Value strategies as less preferred as they tend to underperform when interest rates rise.
          Multi-Asset – at a glance
          28 OCTOBER 2022
          FX views (6 to 12 month time horizon)
          • USD
          • EUR
          • JPY
          • GBP
          • AUD
          • ASIA EX-JAPAN
          1 October 2022
          The bullish case:
          + Hawkish Fed policy divergence vs G3
          + US exceptionalism
          The bearish case:
          – Global growth rotation ex-US
          – Expensive valuation
          1 October 2022
          The bullish case:
          + ECB moves to tighten policy
          + Capital inflows
          The bearish case:
          – Energy dependency
          – Fragmentation of member bond yields
          3 October 2022
          The bullish case:
          – Accommodative BoJ policy
          – Energy import costs
          The bearish case:
          – Reduction in interest rate differentials
          – Cheap oversold JPY
          3 October 2022
          The bullish case:
          + Measures to reduce fiscal deficit
          + Hawkish BoE
          The bearish case:
          – Vulnerable to stagflation pressure
          – Geopolitical risk
          3 October 2022
          The bullish case:
          + Cheap vs Terms of Trade
          + China boosts growth
          The bearish case:
          – China commodity demand slows
          – Risk-off sentiment
          1 October 2022
          EM currencies should benefit from eventual USD weakness, though we would watch for idiosyncratic risks
          Videos
          Global Market Outlook:
          Capturing the yield
          We continue to see multi-asset income generation strategies providing some of the best opportunities today, given the decade-high yields offered by bonds. Developed Markets equities are rebounding from extremely oversold positions, but this is likely to be a bear market rally until the Fed more clearly signals a pivot. Asia ex-Japan equities offer value, in our assessment, but await a catalyst.
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          Podcast Series

          Standard Chartered Money Insights

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Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SCB or SCB (Taiwan). SCB, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SCB or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered Bank UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.