27 June 2025
Weekly Market View
Taking the initiative on our H2 themes
Use market jitters to add to our H2’25 investment themes, namely: (i) Overweight global equities, with a tilt towards Asia ex-Japan (ii) a weak USD, favouring EM local currency bonds, and (iii) portfolio diversifiers, led by gold and alternative strategies. See our H2 2025 outlook Positioning for a Weak Dollar for more.
We would view any market jitters around the upcoming expiry of Trump’s trade truce as consistent with our weak USD view, and an opportunity to add to our H2 investment themes.
Our expectation for a weak USD favours globally diversified equities exposure, with an Overweight to Asia ex-Japan. The signals across our quantitative models remain bullish for major markets.
We would add to USD bonds on pullbacks in the 10-year US bond yield above 4.5%, favouring the 5-7 year area of the curve, and to EM local currency bonds, as one-sided investor positioning eases.
Trade worries likely to maintain pressure on the US Dollar
Chinese equities supported by policy and valuations
Weak USD to balance economic data to support rangebound AUD/USD
Charts of the week: A return to the uptrend
Oil prices have fully reversed their most recent geopolitics-led surge; Global equities record a new all-time high
WTI oil price (USD/bbl)
MSCI All Country World Index
Editorial
Taking the initiative on our H2 themes
Use market jitters to add to our H2’25 investment themes. For the second half of 2025, we focus on the three themes of (i) Overweight global equities, with a tilt towards Asia ex-Japan (ii) a weak USD, favouring EM local currency bonds, and (iii) portfolio diversifiers, led by gold and alternative strategies. See our H2 2025 Outlook Positioning for a Weak Dollar for more.
We would view any market jitters around the upcoming expiry of Trump’s trade truce as consistent with our weak USD view, and an opportunity to add to our H2 investment themes. Our expectation for a weak USD favours a globally diversified equity exposure, with an Overweight to Asia ex-Japan, especially given bullish signals across our quantitative models for major markets like the US. We would add to USD bonds on pullbacks if the 10-year US bond yield goes above 4.5% and to EM local currency bonds as one-sided investor positioning eases.
Learning from volatility: One might be forgiven for perceiving 2025 as a year to lurch from one crisis to another. However, the lesson we would draw is that the crises have not proved to be a lasting deterrent for financial markets. For example, global equities ultimately rose over 9% through Q2, despite the ‘Liberation Day’-led sell-off. More recent geopolitical events in the Middle East raised similar fears, but oil prices have now largely completed a round-trip back to their pre-military strike levels, while global equities hit new highs this week.
We would ease into equities and other preferred assets, especially on any tariff-related volatility: The upcoming early-July expiry of Trump’s tariff pause (early August for China) is the next key event. We expect the pause to be extended for most markets where trade negotiations are in progress, though recent experience suggests such an outcome will emerge only after a short period of rhetoric and market volatility. Trade-related uncertainty is likely to maintain pressure on the USD, but we would firmly view any such volatility as an opportunity to add to our H2 2025 themes.
Take diversified global equity exposure, limiting excessive exposure to the US: Our short-term quantitative models remain bullish Japanese and UK equities, in addition to US markets, supporting the case that major equity markets are set to re-test and, in most cases, set new highs. This week’s break higher in the Nasdaq and Asia ex-Japan benchmarks are testament to this support. Continued pressure on the USD means we favour diversified global exposure.
Overweight Asia ex-Japan equities: We would use any volatility to add to Asia ex-Japan equities, where we are Overweight. We expect gains to be led by China, where we see limited risk from reports of US waiver suspensions for semiconductor firms. In Europe, fiscal expansion, including NATO members’ almost-consensus commitment to spending 5% of GDP on defence, will support our core holding view on Euro area equities and our preference for the industrial sector. In Japan, a BoJ pause supports our core holding view.
Add to USD and Emerging Market bonds on pullbacks. Fed Chair Powell showed little urgency to cut rates until uncertainty over inflation – driven by uncertainty over tariffs – abates. However, US bond yields have drifted lower as economic data disappointed and Trump floated the possibility of nominating Powell’s successor ahead of his term’s end.
In USD bonds, we would await a rebound in yields (to above 4.50% on the 10-year US government bond) before adding further. We continue to favour the 5-7 year maturity profile because we see this offering the best balance between maintaining exposure to falling yields (rising bond prices) without taking the excessive risk inherent in very long maturity bonds. We also remain opportunistically bullish on US inflation-protected bonds (‘TIPS’) to help mitigate any volatility led by a rise in inflation worries.
In non-USD bonds, we would add to Emerging Market local currency bonds on pullbacks in the coming weeks, once excessively long investor positioning cools from its extremes.
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: Positive. The subsiding of Middle East tensions dominates negative macro and policy developments.
(+) factors: Easing Middle East tensions; robust German business confidence
(-) factors: Falling US new home sales and weak consumer confidence in the US and Euro area
US economic data is surprising on the downside, a trend expected to persist in the short term
US economic surprise index
Euro area manufacturing activity was below expectations in June, staying in contractionary territory, while service sector activity rose
Euro area manufacturing and services PMI indices
China’s industrial profits fell 9.1% y/y in May due to tariffs
China industrial profits
Top client questions
Are Chinese equities at risk from US policy?
Our view: We are bullish Chinese equities, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index. Increase exposure if the Hang Seng Index pulls back to the 23,700 support level.
Rationale: Chinese officials’ strategic focus and investment in technology innovation are the key drivers behind our positive view on Chinese equities. Media reports have suggested there is a risk the US cancels Chinese factory chip equipment waivers for major semiconductor manufacturers. However, we note this risk is mitigated by the fact that such policies only apply to selected manufacturers, and these companies have been diversifying their production process to factories outside China over recent years.
Nevertheless, geopolitical risk remains a focus. With Middle-East risks subsiding and Europe agreeing to step up its defence spending contribution to NATO, Trump is likely to refocus on the Asia Pacific region in H2 2025. Short-term volatility notwithstanding, further tangible progress on a US-China trade deal ahead of the tariff pause deadline can help propel Chinese equities, supporting Asia ex-Japan equities broadly. A weak USD lends a further tailwind. Chinese equities’ valuation is still appealing with 12-month forward P/E currently at c.37% discount to global equities.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
China equities trading at significant discount to global equities
12m forward P/E for MSCI China index relative to MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI)
What is your view on Japanese equities?
Our view: We see Japanese equities as a core holding and one attractive candidate to rotate any excessive US equity exposure. Focus on the AI-related sub-sector.
Rationale: The growth-heavy Nikkei-225 index has outperformed the domestic-heavy TOPIX index by 5.6% in Q2’25. The “clarity factor”, i.e. cooling of tariffs and Middle East risks, induces investors to seek growth themes, favouring the AI-related sub-sector.
Japan is enjoying ongoing corporate governance reforms, sustained share buybacks and reasonable valuations.
Lately, however, we started to see foreign investor outflows. Upper House elections on 20 July risk introducing fiscal policy volatility. However, we would view the effect of a stronger JPY as a bigger risk as it would weigh on earnings projections. Having said that, we expect the magnitude of JPY appreciation to be contained. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not in a hurry to raise rates. Japan’s core inflation has been rising for several consecutive months and remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. However, the June Summary of Opinions showed a cautious policy stance, reflecting continued uncertainty of the effect of tariffs on global growth.
— Jason Wong, Equity Analyst
Japan equity market saw foreign net outflows for the first time, following 10 consecutive weeks of net buying
Foreign securities investment into Japan equities
Top client questions (cont’d)
Is now a good opportunity to add to high quality bonds after the Fed comments this week?
Our view: Hold a core allocation to US government bonds. Increase exposure when the 10-year yield rebounds above 4.50%; Stay tactically bullish inflation-protected bonds (TIPS).
Rationale: Recent comments from Fed officials started to raise expectations of earlier-than-expected Fed interest rate cuts, even as President Trump floated the possibility of an early nomination of Powell’s successor. This helped the US 10-year government bond yield drift lower and the 10yr-2yr bond yield spread widen slightly around the higher end of the post-February 2022 range.
However, following the policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell noted no hurry to cut rates given the uncertainty around the inflation outlook. Consumer inflation data is likely to now start ticking higher as the impact of tariffs and higher commodity prices start to bite. Nevertheless, short of a significant inflation surprise, we continue to expect the next Fed rate cut in September.
We continue to hold the view that a focus on the 5-7 year maturity profile offers the best risk-adjusted returns in USD bond portfolios, balancing attractive yields with aforementioned risks. We would await a rebound in the US 10-year government bond yield to above 4.50% before considering adding further. Nevertheless, we remain tactically bullish inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) and believe it can offer a more immediate and direct hedge against any unexpected uptick in inflation over the next 1-3 months.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
The yield differential between US 10-year and 2-year government bonds is still hovering around the highest levels since February 2022
US 10-2-year government bond yield differentials
What is your view on AUD after the recent set of soft data?
Our view: Play the range in AUD/USD, between 0.6370-0.6690.
Rationale: Recent Australian economic data has been weak: (i) Core CPI dropped from 2.8% to 2.4% in May, the lowest level since November 2021; (ii) Q1 GDP printed lower-than-expected; and (iii) Job vacancies jumped from -4.3% to 2.9% in May. This reinforced expectations that the RBA will cut rates by 25bps in July, with a total of 82bps interest rate cuts priced by the end of the year.
However, we are of the view the pair will be supported by improving risk appetite and a weak USD, especially as Middle East tensions subside, the USD remains under pressure and gold remains resilient. The momentum indicator (MACD) is close to a “bullish crossover”. The pair has good support above 0.6370, with resistance at 0.6690.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
We expect AUD/USD to remain rangebound
AUD/USD and technical levels
Top client questions (cont’d)
Is there still upside risk to oil prices after the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East?
Our view: Oil prices will be rangebound around our WTI forecast of USD 65/bbl. The oil-sensitive USD/CAD currency pair is expected to trade within the 1.3540-1.3860 range.
Rationale: WT Ioil prices briefly spiked to a peak of approximately USD 77/bbl on June 22, following Israel’s initial military action in Iran, amid fears that escalation would eventually disrupt oil supply from the region. However, prices have since fully retraced as the ceasefire took hold.
Fading geopolitical risks mean that investors are now able to refocus on fundamentals, i.e. the oil market remains oversupplied. On the upside, US commercial crude inventories last week were well below seasonal norms, while a seasonal pick-up in demand is helping balance the market over the short term. However, a lack of complete output compliance within OPEC+ and prior reversals of output cuts mean that supply remains excessive relative to long term trend demand.
Thus, we expect oil prices to return to a range around our USD 65/bbl forecast. This will feed through to other assets, such as the oil-sensitive USD/CAD currency pair which we expect to trade in a range between 1.3540-1.3860.
— Anthony Naab CFA, Investment Strategist
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
Play the range of USD/CAD as we anticipate crude oil price to be rangebound around USD 65/bbl
WTI crude oil price and USD/CAD
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 6,244
Technical indicators for key markets as of 26 June close
Investor diversity in EM Local bonds fell below threshold
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 26 June close
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As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered Bank UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.