9 January 2026
Weekly Market View
Theatrics aside, a strong start to 2026
Risk assets have rallied this year, despite US actions in Venezuela and threats on Greenland. Non-US equities, especially our preferred Asia ex-Japan equity market, and precious metals have outperformed, extending 2025’s trend. This underlines the need for diversification and hedging.
We remain pro-risk, given solid outlook for corporate earnings. Easy fiscal policies worldwide and a Fed increasingly aligned towards cutting rates, with the looming change of guard, should be positive for equities.
Meanwhile, precious metals have a tailwind in a world fraught with geopolitical risks, while the USD faces risks, especially against the JPY.
Alternatives provide a route to better risk-adjusted returns amid heightened uncertainty. Near-term risks include US jobs and inflation data, a Supreme Court decision on tariffs and the unrest in Iran. Refer to our Outlook 2026 report for more details on our investment and hedging ideas
Bullish on US, China equities –US earnings to re-accelerate in 2026; China growth sectors to benefit from AI investments
Opportunity in AUD bonds – recent selloff likely priced in RBA rate hike risks
Bullish on gold, gold miners –silver rally looks stretched; gold offers catch-up opportunity
Charts of the week: Staying pro-risk, while hedging risks
US corporate earnings outlook provides strong foundation to the equity rally; we hedge risks with gold and gold miners
US quarterly corporate earnings and consensus estimates
Return since 1 January 2025 (as of 8 January 2026)
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered; *27.1% return since bullish opportunistic idea initiated on 30 October 2025
Editorial
Theatrics aside, a strong start to 2026
Strategy summary: Risk assets have rallied this year, despite US actions in Venezuela and threats on Greenland. Non-US equities, especially our preferred Asia ex-Japan equity market, and precious metals have outperformed, extending 2025’s trend. This underlines the need for diversification and hedging.
We remain pro-risk, given solid outlook for corporate earnings. Easy fiscal policies worldwide and a Fed increasingly aligned towards cutting rates, with the looming change of guard, should be positive for equities. Meanwhile, precious metals have a tailwind in a world fraught with geopolitical risks, while the USD faces risks, especially against the JPY. Alternatives provide a route to better risk-adjusted returns amid heightened uncertainty. Near-term risks include US jobs and inflation data, a Supreme Court decision on tariffs and the unrest in Iran.
Positive start to year: The US capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro and threats to take Greenland have not dented the equity bull market, now entering its fourth year. Strong corporate earnings outlook globally, on the back of resilient economic data (see page 3), supportive fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts provide a solid fundamental backdrop to risk assets. However, as the events at the start of the year have shown, diversification and hedging remain key in the new year. This underscores our positive stance on Asia ex-Japan equities (besides US equities), Emerging Market bonds, gold and gold miner equities and alternative assets. The recent wave of AI-related IPOs in China highlights robust investor demand for technology stocks, backing our bullish outlook for the market.
Venezuela intervention medium-term positive for US equities, negative for oil: If the US secures control over Venezuelan oil assets, as President Trump claims, it is likely to be positive for US equities over the medium-to-longer term, because Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, more than five times that of the US itself. Monetising Venezuelan oil will take years, given the country’s decaying oil infrastructure, so any near-term gains are limited. The revival of Venezuela’s oil industry may open opportunities for the mega US oil producers and services providers. Also, US gasoline prices have fallen over the past month, which should help keep inflation expectations in check, paving the path for further Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the latest moves on Greenland are bullish for Europe’s industrial sector, especially its defence industry.
US earnings season in focus: The consensus expects US Q4 2025 earnings growth to decelerate to 8.9% y/y, from 14.9% in Q3. The modest Q4 expectations leave scope for positive surprises yet again. We expect earnings to accelerate in 2026, helped by continued AI investments, lower borrowing costs and deregulation. We favour a barbell sector strategy, with a preference for technology (driven by AI), healthcare (innovative medicines) and utilities (data centre demand) (see page 4).
Prefer gold and gold miners: After a strong rally, silver faces short-term headwinds from stretched investor positions, with key resistance at USD 82-84. Medium-term tailwinds include strong momentum and lift from higher gold prices. As a ‘catch-up trade’ we prefer gold mining equities. We also remain bullish on gold with an end-2026 target of USD 4,800/oz (see page 6).
Near-term risks: The US jobs report for December due today (consensus estimate: 70,000) and inflation report next week (consensus for core inflation: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) are near term risks. The US remains in a low hiring, low firing mode, with payrolls contracting in three of the past six months. Data this week showed US job openings fell in November to the second lowest level in five years, although jobless claims remain low. A a weak payrolls report would lead to a dovish response from the Fed. Fed Governor and Trump appointee Miran said this week the Fed needs to cut rates by 150bps this year. Trump’s nomination of the next Fed Chair is a key near-term focus.
Any Supreme Court ruling declaring Trump’s tariffs illegal, while expected by markets, could provide a lift to equities, but also increase bond market volatility and raise yields. Meanwhile, any US intervention in the Iran unrest would pose an short-term upside risk to oil prices and further raise geopolitical risk. This explains the need to hedge with gold and alternative assets.
— Rajat Bhattacharya
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: : On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as positive for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Robust US service activity; rebound in US private payrolls; falling labour costs; Fed rate cut expectations
(-) factors: Weak US manufacturing; elevated geopolitical tensions
US private sector payrolls rebounded in December after a contraction in November; manufacturing remained contractionary for 10th straight month
US ADP private payrolls, ISM manufacturing and services PMIs
Euro area headline and core consumer inflation slowed in December
Euro area headline and core consumer inflation
China’s consumer price inflation continued to rise from deflationary territory in early 2025, reaching highest level since February 2023
China consumer and producer price inflation
Top client questions
What are your expectations from the upcoming US earnings season? Which sectors are likely to outperform?
Our view: We expect US earnings growth to be modest in Q4 2025 but to re-accelerate thereafter. We prefer technology, healthcare and utilities.
Rationale: Major US banks will kick off the US earnings season. The consensus expects Q4 2025 US earnings growth of 8.9% y/y, a deceleration from 14.9% in Q3 2025 (source: LSEG I/B/E/S). Thereafter, we expect growth to re-accelerate to 14-18% over the four quarters of 2026. Corporate guidance on the 2026 outlook will be critical in driving further gains in US equities.
We expect US earnings to grow by 15.6% in 2026, following 13.3% growth in 2025. Growth in 2026 is likely to be led by the technology sector (30.8% growth) amid strong AI investment, and the materials sector (20.9%) amid a cyclical recovery.
We favour a barbell approach in our sector strategy, with growth exposure from technology along with defensive exposure from healthcare and utilities. We expect AI applications to drive growth in technology, particularly in semiconductors and software. In healthcare, we expect innovative medicine to drive a 9.2% earnings growth in 2026 while valuation remains reasonable. In 2026, we expect 9.4% earnings growth in Utilities – boosted by electricity demand from data centre buildout.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
We prefer a barbell sector strategy, with growth exposure from technology along with defensive exposure from healthcare and utilities
Consensus 2026 earnings growth by sectors in the S&P 500 index
Top client questions (cont’d)
China’s AI IPOs have surged since year-end 2025. What is your view on China’s tech sector, especially firms with AI chip exposure?
Our view: Rising investments lend a tailwind to China’s IT and Communication Services sectors. Leading domestic companies with substantial AI chip exposure are likely to benefit.
Rationale: The recent wave of AI-related initial public offerings (IPOs) in China highlights robust market demand for technology stocks. The capital raised is set to accelerate R&D across emerging sectors, with a pronounced impact on companies specialising in advanced semiconductors, data centres and robotics. These segments are poised to benefit from ongoing technological breakthroughs, such as AI integration into industrial automation and the expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure. China’s 15th Five-year Plan – emphasising technological self-reliance – aligns with these developments.
We expect supportive policy measures and a strong IT and Communication Services sector to drive a continued re-rating in valuations. The China IT sector is likely to deliver earnings per share (EPS) growth at 33.6% in 2026, far surpassing MSCI China’s expected 11.2% EPS growth. At the same time, valuation remains reasonable, with the 12-month forward P/E of 23.6x is around its 10-year average. We continue to be Overweight China’s growth sectors, especially IT and Communication Services, and highlight our opportunistic idea on the Hang Seng Technology Index.
— Michelle Kam, CFA, Investment Strategist
Earnings growth outlook for China’s IT sector is dwarfing that for the broader regional index
2026 and 2027 EPS growth forecast for MSCI China index vs MSCI China Technology index
Top client questions (cont’d)
Do you expect gold and silver to extend gains after their strong December rally?
Our view: Silver is likely to face short-term headwind from stretched investor positioning, although medium-term momentum remains strong. We remain bullish on gold and maintain an opportunistic preference for gold mining equities.
Rationale: Prices of precious metals have accelerated sharply. Silver leads the rally- it has gained 166% since the beginning of 2025. Safe-haven demand reinforces this rally, amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker USD.
While silver continues to benefit from manufacturing demand, particularly linked to AI and electronics, its recent outperformance can arguably be attributed to a ‘catch-up trade’ with gold. The gold-to-silver ratio has fallen sharply from its recent peak to its lowest level since 2013.
This sharp move lower in the ratio suggests that further gains in silver prices from here are likely to be increasingly dependent on momentum and technical factors, rather than supply-demand fundamentals, which appear to be quite well priced-in.
From a technical perspective, silver is trading above rising short- and medium-term moving averages. Investor positioning appears stretched. We see key support around USD 69-70/oz, with resistance near USD 82-84/oz. Also, momentum indicators suggest silver is currently overbought, increasing the risk of a near-term pullback before further gains. However, a persistence of bullish momentum that triggers a break above USD 85 per ounce is likely to result in an extension of the rally towards USD 90 per ounce.
Our preferred ‘catch-up trade’ is gold mining equities, which have performed strongly since we initiated our bullish idea in October, 2025.
— Anthony Naab, CFA, Investment Strategist
The gold-silver ratio is currently below its long-term average. We prefer gold and gold mining equities as a ‘catch-up trade’
Gold-to-silver ratio, long-term average
Top client questions (cont’d)
Does the recent sell off in Australian local currency bonds offer an investment opportunity?
Our View: For AUD-denominated investors, we see this as opportune time to accumulate AUD bonds in AUD cash outright. For USD-denominated investors, we would be cautious about the risk of near-term currency weakness.
Rationale: Australian local currency bonds (AUD bonds) experienced a sell-off in late 2025, resulting in higher yields, as market participants recalibrated inflation and monetary policy expectations. This adjustment followed persistent domestic inflation pressure in the last twelve months, particularly within the services and housing sectors. Market participants currently anticipate a 25bps rate hike by the RBA as early as May 2026.
Despite these challenges, we believe AUD bond yields offer compelling relative value. While the risk of higher yields remains, a further substantial sell-off appears unlikely, as expectations for rate hikes are already reflected in prices. Domestic growth is solid, but does not warrant further rate hikes beyond those already priced in.
Australia’s November inflation data released this week came in softer than expected at 3.4% y/y, providing temporary relief for AUD bonds. We believe this is an opportune time to accumulate AUD bonds in AUD cash outright, for AUD-denominated investors.
For USD-denominated investors, we would be cautious about the risk of near-term currency weakness. Fundamental factors have supported AUD strength since November 2025. However, AUD/USD has been trading near the upper end of the uptrend channel, suggesting near-term correction risk, should expectations for monetary tightening diminish or partial profit-taking surfaces. Our three-month forecast for AUD/USD stands at 0.66.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
AUD bond yields have climbed to a 12-month high, offering an opportunity to AUD-denominated investors to accumulate
Bloomberg AusBond Master Index
Top client questions (cont’d)
With Japan Government Bond yields continuing to trend higher and the Bank of Japan reiterating its rate hike stance, what is your outlook for Japanese bonds and the JPY?
Our view: JGB yields are likely to rise further, making JGBs, particularly longer maturity ones, unattractive. We expect USD/JPY to remain rangebound with a bearish bias.
Rationale: Following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) 25bps rate hike to 0.75% in December 2025, we expect the central bank to maintain its tightening stance and continue normalising interest rates.
Although Japan’s November 2025 consumer inflation eased to 2.9% y/y, it remains above the BoJ’s 2% target. This is likely to keep yields elevated and increase borrowing costs for Japan’s heavily indebted government, potentially heightening fiscal concerns. Market expectations currently point to at least one more policy rate hike in 2026.
The benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has climbed to around 2.1% – its highest level since 1999 – while the 30-year JGB yield has reached about 3.5%. While higher yields may enhance the appeal of new JGB issuance, overall market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing interest rate volatility, as reflected in recent auctions. We continue to view JGBs as unattractive and recommend maintaining short duration exposure for investors who need to hold them.
USD/JPY continues to struggle to break above its recent double-top near 158. Money markets are pricing in around 40bps of BoJ rate hikes in 2026, while anticipating the Fed will lower rates by around 60bps. We expect the divergence in monetary policy to drive USD/JPY lower. However, unless a significant catalyst emerges, trading momentum for the pair remains moderate, with a likely rangebound with bearish bias. A firm break below 155.6 (the 50-day moving average) would open the path towards 153.
— Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist
Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
JGB’s yield appeal is increasing relative to other developed market government bonds, but near term volatility should limit investor demand
Yield of 10-year JGB. Yield differentials between 10-year JGB and US and European government bonds
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 7,018
Technical indicators for key markets as of 8 Jan close
Investor diversity has normalised across asset classes
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 8 Jan close
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In relation to any collective investment schemes referred to in this document, this document is for general information purposes only and is not an offering document or prospectus (as defined in the SFA). This document is not, nor is it intended to be (i) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any capital markets product; or (ii) an advertisement of an offer or intended offer of any capital markets product. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$100,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.