Peak uncertainty, persistent resilience: what’s next for the global economy?
on March 3, 2026By Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research & Chief Strategist, Standard Chartered
At this year’s Standard Chartered Lunar New Year Forum, a central question emerged: how can an era of “peak uncertainty” coexist with an economy and financial markets that continue to demonstrate notable resilience?
The global backdrop is defined by simultaneous economic, financial, geopolitical and technological uncertainty. Narratives of disruption dominate headlines – from artificial intelligence and digital assets to deglobalisation, de-dollarisation and fractured trade alliances. Yet despite this environment, the global economy continues to expand at approximately 3.5%, broadly in line with last year, while many asset prices remain near record highs. This apparent disconnect reflects structural forces operating beneath the surface of the global economy.
Reordering, not retreat
Global trade provides a notable illustration. Amid tariff tensions and persistent talk of fragmentation, trade rose nearly 7% year-on-year in 20251, with merchandise volumes still expanding. China’s exports to the US declined sharply, yet its overall trade surplus reached a record high as flows were redirected towards Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
Meanwhile, trade between emerging markets now accounts for close to half of global exports. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), trade is growing at roughly 15% year-on-year2 , with non-oil trade outpacing oil for three consecutive years. Rather than signalling deglobalisation, these shifts point to a reordering of trade corridors, one that is strengthening new growth connections across emerging markets
China is also navigating a structural transition. Export sectors such as electric vehicles, solar and advanced manufacturing remain globally competitive, while domestic demand remains subdued and the housing market has yet to stabilise fully. Growth is moderating as the economy moves away from a property-led model towards a more balanced mix of exports and domestic consumption. The transition is necessary for long-term sustainability, but it is proving uneven and will carry implications for global supply chains over the coming decade.
Liquidity today, fiscal questions tomorrow
Liquidity has also played a significant role in supporting resilience. Over the past two years, central banks have delivered more than 300 rate cuts, injecting substantial capital into the global financial system. As a result, financial conditions have remained more accommodating than headline uncertainty might suggest.
Attention is now shifting towards fiscal sustainability. Governments continue to run persistent deficits and must borrow more to fund spending, while corporations and consumers are also increasing leverage. In a world where debt levels are already elevated, rising issuance and structurally wider deficits create the potential of higher financing costs over time.
One emerging dynamic is the shift in corporate borrowing patterns. Historically funded by equity and strong free cash flow, technology companies are increasingly issuing long-term debt to finance capital expenditure, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). This introduces new balance sheet considerations and raises questions about competition for capital between sovereign and corporate borrowers.
The dollar and the AI cycle
Concerns about de-dollarisation have resurfaced following tariff announcements and shifts in US policy. Although the dollar has weakened modestly from recent highs, it remains a relatively high-yielding currency compared to many developed and emerging peers. What is unfolding is less about an abandonment of the dollar and more a gradual diversification of portfolios, particularly as investors reallocate towards emerging market assets after years of US outperformance.
AI represents another defining feature of the current cycle. Labelling it simply as a “bubble” understates the scale of structural change underway. The current investment wave makes up one of the largest capital expenditure cycles in recent memory. The central issue is timing: revenues may take years to catch up with current spending levels, creating a gap that is increasingly financed thought debt markets. The sustainability of the cycle will depend on continued access to funding and disciplined capital allocation.
Risks to equilibrium
At the same time, geopolitical considerations are reshaping economic strategy. Resource nationalism is becoming more prominent as countries place greater strategic value on commodities ranging from oil to rare earths and semiconductors. A sharp rise in oil prices, for instance, would present significant challenges for energy-importing Asian economies that have benefitted from relatively contained inflation and a softer dollar in recent years.
Taken together, these developments suggest that the global economy is not in decline but in transition. Trade continues to expand, capital is being reallocated and growth persists, even as the system becomes more politically contested and strategically complex. The balance between liquidity, fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risk will ultimately determine whether current resilience proves durable.
For investors and businesses, the challenge lies not in preparing for collapse, but in understanding the reordering underway and positioning for a world in which volatility may remain elevated, even as long-term opportunities persist.
1UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – Global trade to hit record $35 trillion despite slowing momentum