Δ Overweight ∇ Underweight — Neutral
Equity – at a glance Δ
31 JULY 2026
We remain Overweight global equities. The headwinds we see include rising bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. Against this, earnings growth remains robust, driven by AI investments, the impact of which extends beyond the tech sector to the broader economy. On balance, we expect an economic soft landing to support growth and gains in global equities. We are Overweight US equities, where earnings growth is being revised upward as we go through the Q2 earnings season. We are also Overweight AxJ equities, a key beneficiary of AI capex and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Within AxJ, we continue to be Overweight Taiwan, with good visibility on AI-related semiconductor growth, Overweight China for its valuation re-rating potential amid rapid innovation and Overweight India for its non-tech-driven domestic growth.
We maintain aCore allocation to Japan, where fiscal stimulus and a reflating economy offset energy import vulnerability. We remain Underweight UK equities, given their relatively muted earnings growth and low exposure to growth sectors.
North America equities – Preferred holding Δ
31 JULY 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ Earnings growth
+ AI uptrend
The Bearish Case:
– US policy uncertainty
– Investor positioning
Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding —
31 JULY 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ Undemanding valuations
+ German fiscal spending
The Bearish Case:
– US trade policy risks
– Oil prices
UK equities – Less Preferred holding ∇
31 JULY 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ Attractive valuations
+ Dividend yield
The Bearish Case:
– Stagflation risks
– US trade policy risks
Japan Equities – Core holding —
31 JULY 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ Reasonable valuations
+ Rising dividends/share buybacks
The Bearish Case:
– JPY strength
– US trade policy
Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding Δ
31 JULY 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ Earnings
+ Policy support
+ Easing oil prices
The Bearish Case:
– China growth concerns
– US trade policy