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Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     Δ

19 JUNE 2026

We remain Overweight global equities. Our core scenario for a restart of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within weeks is positive for risk sentiment and the earnings outlook. Earnings growth has remained robust through the Middle East conflict, and we expect this to continue supporting global equities. We are Overweight US equities, where we see earnings growth revised up for future quarters in 2026-27. We upgrade AxJ equities to Overweight as a reopening of the Hormuz strait would ease energy supply into the region. We expect AxJ to continue to benefit from strong AI capex.

Within AxJ, we retain our diversified preference. We are Overweight Taiwan for AI-related semiconductor growth, Overweight China for the valuation re-rating potential and Overweight India for domestically driven growth, amid reduced oil concerns.

We have a Core allocation to Japan and Europe ex-UK, where fiscal expansion plans support the growth outlook. We remain Underweight UK equities, which have relatively muted earnings growth with low exposure to growth sectors.

North America equities – Preferred holding    Δ

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

– Investor positioning

Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding     —

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Oil prices

UK equities – Less Preferred holding    ∇

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities – Core holding   —

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding    Δ

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings; India growth

+ China policy support

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

19 JUNE 2026

Core scenario (soft landing, 60% probability): The US-Iran interim deal to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within weeks should help global economies achieve a soft landing and keep long-term inflation expectations subdued, reducing the need for central banks to tighten policy as much as markets are pricing. We now expect the Fed, under Chair Warsh, to cut rates by 25bps by H1 2027, instead of this year, as focus turns to supporting growth. The ECB is likely to hold rates after delivering an ‘insurance’ hike in June, while China eases policy to revive domestic demand. The BoJ is likely to hike once more this year.

Downside risk (20% probability): This tail risk scenario incorporates a 10% chance of a recession, potentially caused by a delayed restart of Hormuz shipping, a stock market downturn hurting investor confidence or a bond sell-off due to inflation or debt concerns. We also assign a 10% probability to a stagflation scenario if the Middle East crisis resumes and oil prices rebound.

Upside risk (no landing, 20% probability): If the Hormuz strait is reopened in a few weeks, there is a chance that US tax cuts, AI investments, the wealth effect from a booming stock market, fiscal easing in Germany and Japan, and a potential rollback of US tariffs could revive ‘animal spirits’. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal or a global defence spending boom would lift global growth.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding    ∇

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding     —

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding    —

19 JUNE 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding    Δ

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding     —

19 JUNE 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

Asia USD bonds – Core holding   —

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

19 JUNE 2026

• We remain Overweight gold but lower our three- and 12-month price targets to USD 4,750/oz and 5,100/oz, respectively.
  
• We lower our three- and 12-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts to USD 80/bbl and USD 70/bbl, respectively, as reduced geopolitical risk premiums shift the focus back to fundamentals.
  

Oil

19 JUNE 2026

Gold      Δ

19 JUNE 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

+ Falling real yields

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

19 JUNE 2026

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