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Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     Δ

28 AUGUST 2026

We remain Overweight global equities, with our view underpinned by robust earnings growth. The US Q2 earnings season has delivered a strong beat to consensus expectations, resulting in 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates being revised higher. We acknowledge headwinds from high bond yields, which weigh on equity valuations, but we see enough cushion from earnings growth. We are Overweight US equities, with fundamental earnings strength and reasonable valuations. We remain Overweight AxJ equities – a key beneficiary of AI capex, which shows no signs of slowing down.

Within AxJ, we continue to remain Overweight Taiwan, with good visibility on AI-driven growth, and Overweight China for its valuation re-rating potential. We lower India to a Core holding, given stretched valuations and rangebound oil prices.

We maintain Japan as a Core allocation, as fiscal stimulus and a reflating economy offset energy import vulnerability. We remain Underweight UK equities, given their relatively muted earnings growth and headwinds from rising bond yields.

North America equities – Preferred holding    Δ

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

– Investor positioning

Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding    —

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Oil prices

UK equities – Less Preferred holding    ∇

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities – Core holding   —

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding    Δ

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings

+ Policy support

+ Easing oil prices

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

28 AUGUST 2026

Core scenario (soft landing, 50% probability): We have slightly revised upward the probability of a soft landing from 45% by reducing the odds of a ‘no landing’. The global economy remains resilient despite this year’s oil shock. Business confidence picked up further in July. The US remains at the forefront of growth, driven by an acceleration in AI investment and wealth effect from a booming stock market. Fiscal easing in Germany and Japan is supporting growth. Meanwhile, inflation has likely peaked in the US in Q2, although it remains elevated in the Euro area and is likely to rise further in Japan. In this scenario, the Fed is likely to hold rates this year, the ECB is likely to deliver another ‘insurance’ hike in H2, while the BoJ should hike twice more this year. China, facing slowing growth, is likely to ease liquidity and accelerate fiscal spending in H2 to revive domestic demand

Upside risk (no landing, 25% probability): We reduce the probability from 30% amid continued Middle East and Russia-Ukraine uncertainty ahead of the US mid-term elections. If oil prices ease, US tax cuts, an AI-fuelled stock market boom and fiscal easing in Germany and Japan could boost ‘animal spirits’. A global defence spending boom could also spur global growth.

Downside risk (25% probability): This tail risk scenario includes a 15% chance of recession, potentially caused by a prolonged blockade of the Hormuz strait, a stock market downturn negating the wealth effect or a bond sell-off due to inflation or debt concerns. We also assign a 10% chance to a stagflation scenario if the US-Iran conflict worsens and oil stays above USD 90/bbl.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding    ∇

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding     —

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding    —

28 AUGUST 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding    Δ

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding     —

28 AUGUST 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

– FX risk

Asia USD bonds – Core holding   —

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

28 AUGUST 2026

• We reinstate our Overweight on gold and raise our 3 – and 12-month price targets to USD 4,750/oz and 5,000/oz, respectively.We maintain our 3-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil forecast at USD 90/bbl and our 12-month target at USD 70/bbl.
  

Oil

28 AUGUST 2026

Gold      Δ

28 AUGUST 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

– Elevated real yields

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

19 JUNE 2026

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