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Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

We downgrade global equities from Overweight to a Core allocation as we expect higher volatility in the near term. We expect this volatility to arise as equity market leadership broadens during the transition to a mid-cycle bull market. Equity returns will likely moderate from the 15-20% annualised range of the last few years but remain positive. We remain Overweight US and AxJ equities, which are expected to deliver the highest earnings growth in 2027 among the major regions.

Within AxJ, we remain Overweight Taiwan, given structural AI-driven growth, and upgrade India to Overweight, for diversified non-AI growth exposure. South Korea is a Core holding, with attractive valuations but extreme volatility. China is also a Core holding, with attractive valuations but lacking a positive catalyst. We are Underweight ASEAN, which has a weaker growth profile.

We maintain Japan as a Core holding as nominal growth supports broad-based earnings revisions. We also maintain a Core allocation to Europe ex-UK, which is enjoying an earnings recovery. We remain Underweight UK equities, given the market’s limited exposure to growth sectors.

North America equities    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

– Rising bond yields

Europe ex-UK equities    —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Oil prices

UK equities    ∇

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities   —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings

+ Policy support

+ Easing oil prices

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

Foundation: Bond yields remain near multi-year highs, offering an attractive entry point. We view fixed income as a Core holding (ie, a Neutral allocation) in our multi-asset portfolios. Within the asset class, we maintain an Overweight stance on EM USD government bonds, given their attractive risk-reward. We hold an Underweight view on Developed Market (DM) government bonds due to the tail risks associated with term premia.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates at 3.75-4.00% in October amid still-elevated energy prices suggests that every Fed meeting from here is ‘live’, with a rate change possible on incoming data. With US inflation still running hot and the labour market tight, we expect two more 25bps hikes (one by year-end and one in H1 2027), bringing the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%. We continue to favour the 3-7-year part of the US government bond yield curve as the best hedge against any risk-off move driven by AI-related growth fears. As inflation pressures ease in H2 2027, we see room for the Fed to consider a rate cut, which should pull nominal yields lower. Solid corporate fundamentals and supportive technicals should keep spreads tight, but there is limited room for them to tighten further. We still favour EM USD over local-currency (LCY) government bonds.

Opportunistic ideas: We are bullish on US TIPS, AAA-rated CLOs, broad US HYs and Australian dollar (AUD) corporate bonds.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds    ∇

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds    —

30 OCTOBER 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

– FX risk

Asia USD bonds   —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

30 OCTOBER 2026

• We remain Overweight gold, but trim our three- and 12-month price targets to USD 4,350/oz and 4,700/oz, respectively.
  
• We retain our three- and 12-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil forecast at USD 100/bbl and USD 80/bbl, respectively.
  

Oil

30 OCTOBER 2026

Gold      Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

– Elevated real yields

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

30 OCTOBER 2026

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