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Wealth Guru

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Market Insights brought to you by our CIO

Where will the financial markets head towards? Check out how our Chief Investment Office (CIO) sees it.

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Understand H2 2025 Investment Strategy in 2 Minutes

💡 De-dollarisation is drawing attention in markets with the US dollar having dropped 10% in the first half of the year. Historical trends suggest that USD weakness often benefits equities — especially non-US stock markets.

  • 📊 Avoid over-concentration on US assets: History shows USD weakness is positive for equities. We upgrade Asia ex-Japan equities to overweight, while China, Korea and India equities are enjoying domestic fiscal support. Valuations of Europe equities are still cheap, and fiscal spending should support the region’s earnings growth in the coming years.
  • 🗽 US earnings season: The bar is low for US earnings to beat expectations after a significant downward revision in consensus Q2 earnings growth estimates to 5.8% y/y. Our preferred technology and communications sectors are likely to lead the earnings beats amid sustained strong revenue growth from AI-related investments.
  • 📜 High quality bonds opportunities: US consumer goods inflation in June rebounded, while producer prices unexpectedly stalled. We expect a slowing economy to cool service sector and overall inflation. This scenario keeps alive chances of a September Fed rate cut. We would add to 5-7-year maturity high quality bonds, especially if the 10-year US government bond yield rises above 4.5%.
  • 🔎 Short-term consolidation: After a strong rally, investor positioning looks stretched in non-US equity and bond markets, raising the risk of near-term consolidation. The expected consolidation in EM assets, including Asia ex-Japan equities and EM local bonds would provide entry opportunities.

Understand H2 2025 Investment Strategy in 2 Minutes

De-dollarisation is drawing attention in markets with the US dollar having dropped 10% in the first half of the year. Historical trends suggest that USD weakness often benefits equities — especially non-US stock markets.

 

21 Jul 2025

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Clarity in the Chaos

💡 Tariffs ignite global market turmoil. We believe global equities are likely to stay volatile in the near-term.

Three key tips for investors:

  1. 📊 Diversify global equity positioning across regions and sectors:Add on pullback to growth areas less prone to tariff such as (a) US software and communication services, (b) Hang Seng Technology, supported by DeepSeek, and (c) Euro banks and industrials, likely benefitting from Germany’s fiscal expansion plan. Balance with defensive areas (US healthcare sector, China high-dividend non-bank state owned enterprises).
  2. 🚀 Add DM High yield bonds as corporate default risks stay contained:Tactically add to Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) on any bounce in US government bond yields.
  3. 🛡️ Risk-off environment is supportive of safe haven such as JPY and CHF:Look to sell USD/JPY on short-term rebounds. Overweight Gold. Add to Alternative investments as core allocations to fend off volatility.

Clarity in the Chaos

Tariffs ignite global market turmoil. We believe global equities are likely to stay volatile in the near-term. What are our 3 key tips for investors?

 

7 Apr 2025

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Fed maintains steady rates for 2 consecutive meetings

  • Fed still sees rate cuts coming: The Fed held rates at 4.5%, projected 50bps of rate cuts through 2025 and a slowdown in the pace at which it reduces its bond holdings.
  • Signals slower US growth: Officials revised down US growth to 1.7% for this year while raising core PCE inflation to 2.8%, suggesting potential stagflation risks.
  • We see still-low risk of a near-term recession: The Fed has enough leeway to cut rates if growth slows sharply. We also expect Trump to extend personal tax cuts expiring this year and reverse his hawkish fiscal spending and trade policies if equity markets slump further.
  • The US equity drawdown is an opportunity for long-term investors: Since 1970, we have seen 24 instances of the S&P500 index correcting by more than 10% from its all-time high. If the correction is not followed by a recession, the average returns are 10.8% / 14.4% over the next 6 / 12 months. Investors may buy the US stocks dip and maintain a diversified asset allocation amidst market fluctuations.

Our dedicated Fund Select team conducts independent analysis regularly and has shortlisted quality Multi-Asset funds, based on quantitative and qualitative factors. Find out more now!

Fed maintains steady rates for 2 consecutive meetings

The Fed held rates at 4.5%, projected 50bps of rate cuts through 2025 and a slowdown in the pace at which it reduces its bond holdings. We see still-low risk of a near-term recession.

 

20 Mar 2025

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2025 Global Market Outlook: Foreign Exchange

  • Tariff-related uncertainty is likely to support safe-haven currencies, particularly the JPY, in Q1: The JPY stands out as the only G10 currency to strengthen against the dollar this year. This partly reflects the BoJ’s rate hike expectations, while other major central banks cut rates. We expect the JPY’s strength to be more pronounced against non-USD currencies.
  • US-related trade risks facing Europe and ECB rate cuts: With Europe potentially being the next target of US tariffs, any tariff announcement could drive EUR/USD towards parity.
  • UK government debt stress: The retreat of UK gilts since mid-January and the tax rise are likely to alleviate the UK government debt stress. We expect to see some fiscal stability, which will support the GBP in the coming months.
  • Rising volatility: US tariff and policy rates may increase volatility in the currency market. Whether for travel, overseas education, real estate investment, or broader investment strategies, capitalising on foreign exchange opportunities can yield significant benefits!

For full market outlook insights, read our latest GMO Report now.

2025 Global Market Outlook: Foreign Exchange

The US tariffs are likely to provide a short-term boost for the USD. However, further tariff escalation could become a headwind for the dollar as US economic growth suffers. Tariff-related uncertainty is likely to support safe-haven currencies, particularly the Japanese Yen, in Q1.

 

18 Feb 2025

CIO Wealth Guru Series

Our CIO experts combine investment fun facts and market views, bring upon a series of professional yet lively short articles. Read now and become a Wealth Guru as well!

Strong Dollar Hits One-Year High

Trump’s pro-growth “America first” plan intuitively implies US assets and the Dollar outperforming non-US assets. Keep an eye on potential technical rebound for the EUR, GBP and AUD. Meanwhile, why are USD, JPY and CHF widely regarded as safe-haven currencies?

3 tactics to capitalise on rate cut early opportunities

When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 4%, it's a good opportunity to average into it. History suggests that entering the bond market early during a rate cut period achieves higher return. Elevate your income potential now!

Cash is no longer king?

As countries gradually cut interest rates, earning interest on cash is becoming less favourable. Discover how to boost your passive income in today’s low interest market.

Tips to earn HKD50,000 passive income

Achieve financial freedom by exploring sustainable dividend-paying investments and building passive income to live the life you envision.

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