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Festival, Hanukkah Menorah, Weapon

FX Market Hub

Grasp the latest FX movements on-the-go

Latest FX Pulse Videos

Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.

Light, Baby, Person

We expect the USD to be largely flat over the next 3 months

02 Apr 2024

We expect the USD to be largely flat over the next 3 months

Sphere, Outer Space, Astronomy

DXY posted largest weekly gain in two months

25 Mar 2024

DXY posted largest weekly gain in two months

Latest FX News

Architecture, Building, Nature

FX Weekly – 19 Mar 2024

JPY plunged after the BOJ’s rate decision

After the BOJ’s policy meeting, 100 JPY fell below 5.2 per HKD, hitting a 2-week low, which is approximately 2% lower than its peak of 5.33 in early March. The Bank of Japan raised rate for the first time in 17 years. It ended its negative rate policy and set a new policy rate range between 0-0.1%, while the central bank also scrapped the yield curve control programs.

Person, Accessories, Bag

FX Weekly – 13 Mar 2024

GBP/HKD retreated following the UK weaker labour data

The UK unemployment rate rebounded for the first time since July 2023, while its wage growth slowed to the lowest in more than 1 year. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated the situation of the labour market will not hinder the progress of cutting rate, and markets currently anticipate the first rate cut will begin in Q3. GBP/USD fell below 1.28 on Tuesday, while GBP/HKD retreated to 10.0. Its recent low was at 9.42 on October 4, 2023.

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We expect a rangebound USD over the next 3 months. Major pairs are likely to consolidate after the market’s adjustment following the Fed’s December meeting.
  • On a 6-12-month horizon, we expect the USD to move modestly lower.
  • We expect the EUR, AUD and JPY to be key beneficiaries of a softer USD in 2024.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.


3m forecast: 102

12m forecast: 100

The bullish case:

+ Recession-linked safe-haven demand

+ US exceptionalism

The bearish case:

– Dovish pivot from the Fed

– Global growth rotation ex-US

– Correction of expensive valuation


3m forecast: 1.26 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.27 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish BoE due to sticky inflation

The bearish case:

– Recession risks

– Consumption weakness


3m forecast: 139 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 135 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ Increase in JGB yields

+ Potential BoJ rate hikes

+ Safe haven

The bearish case:

– Japan’s low nominal yields

– Continuation of easy BoJ monetary policy


3m forecast: 0.68 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.70 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Terms of trade

+ China growth rebound

The bearish case:

– Capped commodity prices

– Risk-off sentiment


3m forecast: 1.10 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.12 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ ECB may push back rate cuts

+ Increasing real rates as EU inflation falls

The bearish case:

– Downside growth risk

– Banking sector concerns

– Energy dependency


3m forecast: 0.63 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.64 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish RBNZ

+ China dairy/tourism demand

The bearish case:

– Elevated CA deficit

– Housing risk


3m forecast: 1.34 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.35 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ Lower rate differentials

+ resilient oil prices

The bearish case:

– Vulnerable housing market

– Lower growth


3m forecast: 0.89 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.88 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

The bearish case:

– SNB policy pause

– Lower safe-haven demand


3m forecast: 7.16 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.00 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China growth rebound

+ Capital inflows

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavourable rate differentials


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