You're about to leave our website

This hyperlink will bring to you to another website on the Internet, which is published and operated by a third party which is not owned, controlled or affiliated with or in any way related to Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited or any member of Standard Chartered Group ( the "Bank").

The hyperlink is provided for your convenience and presented for information purposes only. The provision of the hyperlink does not constitute endorsement, recommendation, approval, warranty or representation, express or implied, by the Bank of any third party or the hypertext link, product, service or information contained or available therein.

The Bank does not have any control (editorial or otherwise) over the linked third party website and is not in any way responsible for the contents available therein. You use or follow this link at your own risk. To the extent permissible by law, the Bank shall not be responsible for any damage or losses incurred or suffered by you arising out of or in connection with your use of the link.

Please be mindful that when you click on the link and open a new window in your browser, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third party website that you are going to visit.


Proceed to third party website
Festival, Hanukkah Menorah, Weapon

FX Market Hub

Grasp the latest FX movements on-the-go

Latest FX Pulse Videos

Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.

Light, Baby, Person

We expect the USD to be largely flat over the next 3 months

02 Apr 2024

We expect the USD to be largely flat over the next 3 months

Sphere, Outer Space, Astronomy

DXY posted largest weekly gain in two months

25 Mar 2024

DXY posted largest weekly gain in two months

Latest FX News

Architecture, Building, Nature

FX Weekly – 19 Mar 2024

JPY plunged after the BOJ’s rate decision

After the BOJ’s policy meeting, 100 JPY fell below 5.2 per HKD, hitting a 2-week low, which is approximately 2% lower than its peak of 5.33 in early March. The Bank of Japan raised rate for the first time in 17 years. It ended its negative rate policy and set a new policy rate range between 0-0.1%, while the central bank also scrapped the yield curve control programs.

Person, Accessories, Bag

FX Weekly – 13 Mar 2024

GBP/HKD retreated following the UK weaker labour data

The UK unemployment rate rebounded for the first time since July 2023, while its wage growth slowed to the lowest in more than 1 year. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated the situation of the labour market will not hinder the progress of cutting rate, and markets currently anticipate the first rate cut will begin in Q3. GBP/USD fell below 1.28 on Tuesday, while GBP/HKD retreated to 10.0. Its recent low was at 9.42 on October 4, 2023.

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We expect a rangebound USD over the next 3 months. Major pairs are likely to consolidate after the market’s adjustment following the Fed’s December meeting.
  • On a 6-12-month horizon, we expect the USD to move modestly lower.
  • We expect the EUR, AUD and JPY to be key beneficiaries of a softer USD in 2024.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

USD

3m forecast: 102

12m forecast: 100

The bullish case:

+ Recession-linked safe-haven demand

+ US exceptionalism

The bearish case:

– Dovish pivot from the Fed

– Global growth rotation ex-US

– Correction of expensive valuation

GBP

3m forecast: 1.26 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.27 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish BoE due to sticky inflation

The bearish case:

– Recession risks

– Consumption weakness

JPY

3m forecast: 139 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 135 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ Increase in JGB yields

+ Potential BoJ rate hikes

+ Safe haven

The bearish case:

– Japan’s low nominal yields

– Continuation of easy BoJ monetary policy

AUD

3m forecast: 0.68 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.70 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Terms of trade

+ China growth rebound

The bearish case:

– Capped commodity prices

– Risk-off sentiment

EUR

3m forecast: 1.10 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.12 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ ECB may push back rate cuts

+ Increasing real rates as EU inflation falls

The bearish case:

– Downside growth risk

– Banking sector concerns

– Energy dependency

NZD

3m forecast: 0.63 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.64 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish RBNZ

+ China dairy/tourism demand

The bearish case:

– Elevated CA deficit

– Housing risk

CAD

3m forecast: 1.34 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.35 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ Lower rate differentials

+ resilient oil prices

The bearish case:

– Vulnerable housing market

– Lower growth

CHF

3m forecast: 0.89 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.88 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

The bearish case:

– SNB policy pause

– Lower safe-haven demand

CNY

3m forecast: 7.16 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.00 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China growth rebound

+ Capital inflows

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavourable rate differentials

Disclaimers

Important Note of Investment Products

Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.

Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
  • The material and information contained on this webpage should be read in conjunction with the relevant product brochure and for the risk disclosure, please refer to the product brochure.

Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
  • Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
  • This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

To borrow or not to borrow? Borrow only if you can repay!