📈 Rising risk of a Fed rate hike
- 📌 We see more than 50% chance of a rate hike, potentially on 16 September, if key US data before then are supportive – specifically, if August payrolls are positive, unemployment stays near 4.1% and core inflation is at least 0.2% m/m. If these conditions are met, not hiking could trigger another long-end bond selloff and undermine Warsh’s credibility.
- 🚧 Little scope for multiple hikes: Even if the Fed delivers a ‘defensive’ hike, we see little scope for further increases as US inflation should ease towards the 2% target next year when tariff and oil-price effects fade. Moreover, repeated rate increases could prove counterproductive by lifting already record US government borrowing costs as the Treasury continues shortening the maturity of its bond issuance, compounding fiscal pressures.
- 💰 Rising bond yields have added to seasonal weakness in September and pre-midterm election blues to weigh on equities this week. We continue to see strong earnings outlook (20%-plus EPS growth expected in Q3 and Q4) as a fundamental support for equities. As long as bond volatility remains capped, we would use any equity market weakness to add exposure.
- 💲 The latest rise in short-to-medium term bond yields is an opportunity to gradually extend maturities in bond portfolios, given our outlook for disinflation and limited upside for policy rates. We extend our preferred maturity bucket to 3-7 years. We continue to prefer corporate bonds over government bonds and would look for any yield spike in corporate bonds in our preferred maturities to lock in yields.
💡 Ideas for you – Signature CIO Funds
💰 The Signature CIO Funds are designed to deliver steady performance by leveraging insights from Standard Chartered’s Chief Investment Office. Through globally diversified, multi‑asset portfolios, investors can capture opportunities with precision and optimise long‑term wealth accumulation. Explore Signature CIO Funds now to seize opportunities. New and selected clients can enjoy 0% online fund subscription fees*.
💡 Ideas for you – Discover What Investors Are Buying
Not sure where to start? Explore our Top Selling Funds to see what other investors are investing in. Browse the most popular funds across different investor segments, including All Investors, Gen X & Y, Golden Agers, and Professional Investors, and gain ideas from prevailing investment trends.
Whether you’re looking for growth, income opportunities, or diversification, the Top Selling Funds list can help inspire your next investment decision. Start exploring today and discover what’s capturing investors’ attention.
💡 Ideas for you – Equities
Log in to the Standard Chartered Stock Trading Platform now to trade US, Hong Kong, and A-shares 24/7, and seize investment opportunities in multiple markets. Selected clients can enjoy $0 commission on buy trades^. Act now!
💡 Ideas for you – Bonds
Standard Chartered offers an extensive selection of quality bonds issued by well-known organisations around the world. Click to check out Top Selling Corporate Bonds and more!
Note
*For offer details, please refer to Investment Fund Services Webpage
^For offer details, please refer to Securities Services Webpage
Notes
- This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
- Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
- This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.
Risk Disclosure Statement for Investment Funds
- Investment involves risks. The prices of units/ shares of unit trusts or mutual funds fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling unit trusts or mutual funds. Past performance of any Investment Fund is no guide to its future performance.
- Investors should carefully read the relevant offering documents and in particular the Terms & Conditions contained therein, the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information. It is desirable that the Investor seeks independent financial advice with respect to any investment decision.
- Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with unit trusts or mutual funds and should also consider their own investment objective, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level before making any investment decision.
Risk Disclosure Statement for Stock Investment Services
- Investment involves risks. The prices of stocks fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount.
- Past performance of any stocks is no guide to its future performance. Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation, risk tolerance level and carefully read the Terms and Conditions of relevant Stock Investment Services before making any investment decision.
Important Notes of Online Stock Trading
- The Bank will not be liable for any loss or damage to you as a result of making the Online Stock Trading Services available to you, unless the loss or damage is directly caused by our negligence or our willful default.
- For more details and the risks involved, please refer to the Stock Investment Services Terms and Conditions or contact our branch staff.
Risk Disclosure Statement for Equity Linked Investments
- Equity Linked Investments are structured products involving derivatives. The Investment decision is yours but you should not invest in the Equity Linked Investments unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.
- SFC authorization does not imply official recommendation, it is not a recommendation or endorsement of a product, nor does it guarantee the commercial merits of a product or its performance.
- ELI Contracts are NOT equivalent to time deposits.
- The price or value of the Equity Linked Investments (ELIs) fluctuates, sometimes dramatically. The price or value of the ELIs may move up or down, and may even become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of subscribing for, buying and selling the ELIs. Investors should therefore carefully consider whether such transactions are suitable in light of their financial position and investment objectives before entering into such transactions.
- Not principal protected: ELIs are not principal protected. You may suffer a loss if the prices of the underlying asset(s) of an ELI go against your view. In extreme cases, you could lose your entire investment.
- Limited potential gain: the potential return on your ELI may be capped at a predetermined level specified by the issuer.
- Credit risk of the issuer: when you purchase an ELI, you rely on the credit-worthiness of the issuer. In case of default or insolvency of the issuer, you will have to rely on your distributor to take action on your behalf to claim as an unsecured creditor of the issuer regardless of the performance of the reference asset(s).
- No collateral: ELIs are not secured on any assets or collateral.
- Limited market making: issuers may provide limited market making arrangement for their ELIs. However, if you try to terminate an ELI before maturity under the market making arrangement provided by the issuer, you may receive an amount which is substantially less than your original investment amount.
- Investing in an ELI is not the same as investing in the reference asset(s): during the investment period, you have no rights in the reference asset(s). Changes in the market price of such reference asset(s) may not lead to a corresponding change in the market value and/or potential payout of the ELI.
- Conflicts of interest: issuer of an ELI may also play different roles, such as the arranger, the market agent and the calculation agent of the ELI. Conflicts of interest may arise from the different roles played by the issuer, its subsidiaries and affiliates in connection with the ELI.
Risk Disclosure Statement
- Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
- Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
- Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.