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Insight report
Future of Trade
Our 2026 research report developed with Oxford Economics explores global trade amid structural uncertainty.
How are corporates navigating structural uncertainty?
Digitalisation is now critical
Faster digitalisation could help corporate leaders harness cost savings while unlocking new trade opportunities. By 2031, digital acceleration could add USD2.8 trillion to international trade each year.
Supply chains are being refined
While more than nine in ten corporates expect to adjust their supply chain activities over the next three to five years, around 60 per cent anticipate neither entering nor exiting markets across sourcing, manufacturing and exporting. Instead, businesses are focused on making supply chains more resilient.
Treasury’s role is expanding
From a focus on resilience, the treasury management function continues to transform into a growth engine. Over the next three to five years, 37 per cent of corporates plan to integrate treasury and supply-chain functions more closely, while the same proportion expects to adjust its treasury strategy.
About the report
Inside Future of Trade: Navigating an age of structural uncertainty
This year’s Future of Trade report combines survey insights from 2,100 senior corporate leaders covering 27 markets globally, with scenario modelling developed with our research partner Oxford Economics.
The report explores how businesses are responding to fragmentation and uncertainty, changing supply chain priorities and the accelerating digitalisation of global trade.
The findings point to a shift from location-led to capability-led resilience. While 95 per cent of corporates plan to adjust their supply chain activities over the next three to five years, an average of 59 per cent expect neither to enter new markets nor exit existing ones.
Instead, businesses are placing greater emphasis on supplier strategies, inventory management, digital visibility and scenario planning.
The report also examines the potential economic impact of the survey findings, with two illustrative scenarios leveraging Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model. Under the Digital Acceleration scenario, global trade could be USD2.8 trillion higher than baseline in five years.
“Businesses are refining existing networks through stronger supplier strategies, better inventory management and capabilities that improve their ability to anticipate and respond to change.”
Roberto HoornwegCEO, Corporate & Investment Banking
Key insights on the future of global trade
01
How are corporates ensuring supply chain resilience?
According to this year’s report, geographic reconfiguration is becoming less important, as businesses focus on refining how their existing supply chains operate.
The net priority score assigned to geographic reconfiguration has fallen by 7.2 percentage points compared with the past year. Supplier focused strategies have risen by 4.3 points and inventory management strategies by 2.9 points, indicating a greater focus on supplier relationships, internal capabilities and operational resilience.
-7.2
Geographic reconfiguration (priority score, pts)
+4.3
Supplier approaches (priority score, pts)
+2.9
Inventory management (priority score, pts)
02
What insights can corporates leverage from scenario planning?
Trade risks increasingly interact across tariffs, currency movements, geo economic actions, energy disruption, cyber risks and demand. Scenario modelling can help businesses understand not only where disruption could occur, but how combined risks could affect costs, liquidity, suppliers and customers.
Despite this, scenario outputs are still used more often to build risk awareness, rather than to guide action. While 54 per cent of corporates use scenario outputs for risk awareness, only 41 per cent use them to inform business decisions and 38 per cent use them for treasury actions. Better-connected supply chain and financial data can help turn foresight into clearer decisions, thresholds and responsibilities.
54%
Use scenario outputs for risk awareness
41%
Use them for business decisions
38%
Use them for treasury actions
03
How is digitalisation helping corporates respond to structural uncertainty?
Digital tools are helping corporates manage increasingly complex global trade networks. Some 83 per cent of senior leaders say digitalisation enables their organisation to respond more quickly to supply chain disruption, while 82 per cent say it improves decision-making through better visibility and forecasting across supply chains and financial flows. Almost three-quarters agree or strongly agree that digitalisation helps to manage cash, liquidity, and FX risks during periods of volatility.
The value is operational as well as technological. Greater visibility is helping corporates detect disruption earlier, connect financial and operational decisions, and act before risks affect suppliers, customers, liquidity and cash flow.
83%
Say digitilisation helps them respond quickly to supply-chain disruptions
82%
Say it improves decision- making
74%
Say it helps manage cash, liquidity, and FX risks during volatility
04
What lessons can corporates learn from the digital leaders of today?
Four in five corporates report measurable gains from at least one digital capability, spanning core technologies such as automated payments and digital trade documentation to emerging solutions like digital currencies, tokenisation, and scenario modelling.
Less than one in ten (7 per cent) report clear benefits across at least five or more of these. The findings suggest that value is being realised, but has not yet been achieved at scale across most organisations.
We found that digital leaders combine stronger foundations with more frequent scenario analysis and closer integration between treasury and supply chain operations. Some 89 per cent use scenario modelling tools to some degree, and they are more likely to report that digitalisation helps them respond quickly to disruption.
80%
Benefits from at least one digital capability
40%
Benefits from at least three capabilities
7%
Benefits from at least five capabilities
05
What is the potential trade opportunity from digital acceleration?
This year’s report examines the potential economic impact of the survey findings with two illustrative scenarios leveraging Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model.
The Digital Acceleration scenario explores the potential upside if corporates realise the expected savings from trade digitalisation, alongside stronger technology investment and faster AI adoption.
Under this scenario, lower trade frictions, stronger technology investment and faster AI adoption could leave global trade activity 6.9 per cent above the baseline by 2031, equal to a USD2.8 trillion increase.
Services trade could benefit particularly strongly, rising 11.4 per cent above the baseline compared with 5.9 per cent for goods. Capturing the opportunity would require coordinated investment in digital capabilities, infrastructure, trusted data flows and interoperable systems across businesses, banks and governments. The scenario is an alternative future, not a forecast.
USD2.8tn
Potential additional global trade by 2031.
6.9%
Total trade activity above baseline
11.4%
Services trade above baseline
5.9%
Goods trade above baseline
Expert perspectives from our industry partners
Our clients and partners share their perspectives on key insights in our Future of Trade report.
“AI tools can truly help us break some information silos. In the past, certain information sat within finance teams while other information remained within operations, making it difficult for people to access insights across functions.”
Linda Wang Senior Finance Director, Adidas Sourcing
“Our supply chain strategies has evolved from a primary focus on efficiency and cost optimisation towards a more balanced approach incorporating resilience, flexibility, and sustainability.”
Justin Wong Chief Financial Officer, Epic Group
“The entire game has completely changed as far as my role is concerned – from managing cash to managing uncertainty. What was once a simple buy-and-sell trade can become a completely different situation because of these disruptions.”
Gaurav Jain Global Head of Banking and Treasury, ABG Trading
“Governments should commit to global practices and globally interoperability standards. Digital identity is a crucial part of this. These systems need to connect to a global infrastructure so that those identities can function across borders.”
Pamela Mar Director of the Digital Standards Initiative, International Chamber of Commerce
Methodology
Future of Trade: Navigating an age of structural uncertainty combines a global executive survey with scenario analysis developed with research partner Oxford Economics. We surveyed 2,100 senior corporate leaders from multinational corporations with annual revenues above USD250 million, across 27 markets and five major industry categories.
Conducted in June and July 2026, the survey examined the pressures affecting global trade, the actions corporates are taking in response, and their priorities for the next three to five years. Two illustrative scenarios explore how faster trade digitalisation and greater geopolitical fragmentation could affect trade, economic activity, prices and currencies through 2031. The scenarios are alternatives to the baseline trajectory and should not be interpreted as forecasts.
2,100
Senior corporate leaders surveyed
27
Markets covered
9
Weeks survey fieldwork (June and July 2026)