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Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     Δ

6 MAY 2026

We remain Overweight global equities. Although the Middle East conflict remains volatile, so far we remain comfortable with our expectation for mid-teens earnings growth in 2026 driving global equities higher. We remain Overweight US equities, where the heavyweight technology sector continues to benefit from AI investments. With the US Q1 26 earnings season underway, we look for corporate guidance to validate resilient fundamentals. Meanwhile, we downgraded Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities to Core Holding, and upgraded Europe ex-UK equities to Core Holding, as we believe taking profit in key outperformers like Asia ex-Japan and rotating into underperforming regions like Europe ex-UK can capture a broadening out of the equity rally.

Within AxJ, we have a diversified preference. Our Overweight stance on Taiwan reflects our positive view on semiconductor-driven earnings growth, while our Overweight on China reflects an attractive valuation re-rating potential amid resilient growth and policy support. Meanwhile, our Overweight on India reflects strong domestic growth and is less correlated to the AI theme
.

We have a Core allocation to Japan, where expansionary fiscal plans are a positive offset to energy import sensitivities. We remain Underweight for UK equities, which have relatively muted earnings growth.

North America equities – Preferred holding    Δ

6 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding     —

6 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

UK equities – Less Preferred holding     ∇

6 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities – Core holding   —

6 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding    —

6 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings; India growth

+ China policy support

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

24 APRIL 2026

Core scenario (soft landing, 60% probability): We expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to traffic in the next few weeks, given the constraints on both the US and Iran which argue against a prolonged blockade. This is likely to sustain our base scenario of an economic soft landing this year. While near-term inflation is likely to rise with elevated oil prices, an early resolution should keep long-term inflation expectations in check, allowing central banks to focus on fundamentals. As near-term inflation rises, we expect the Fed to hold rates in H1 but eventually cut by 25bps in H2 as focus turns to reviving the job market. The ECB is likely to hike rates once and the BoJ twice to counter inflation, while China eases policy to encourage consumption-led growth.

Downside risk (hard landing, 30% probability): We raise the risk of a hard landing from 25% if the Middle East conflict leaves oil prices significantly higher for longer, delaying Fed rate cuts and negatively impacting real incomes and consumption. A stock market downturn hurting investor confidence and/or a bond selloff on inflation and/or debt concerns are other tail risks.

Upside risk (no landing, 10% probability): In the event of a swift resolution in the Middle East, there is still a chance that US tax and Fed rate cuts, fiscal easing in Germany, China and Japan and a potential rollback of US tariffs could revive animal spirits. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal, a US-China grand bargain or EU-wide defence spending can potentially lift global growth.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding    ∇

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding     —

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding    —

24 APRIL 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding    Δ

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding     Δ

24 APRIL 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

Asia USD bonds – Core holding   —

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

24 APRIL 2026

• We remain Overweight gold but trim our 3- and 12-month gold price targets to USD 5,200/oz and USD 5,500/oz, respectively
  
• We raise our three-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast to USD 80-90/bbl on expectations that full output normalisation will take time.
  

Oil

24 APRIL 2026

Gold      Δ

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

+ Falling real yields

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

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