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Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     Δ

22 MAY 2026

We remain Overweight global equities. While we expect equities to end the year higher, we see near-term volatility due to elevated rates and as the focus shifts to macro developments, now that the reporting season is over. With earnings growth across various market segments, we expect a broadening of the equity rally, as published in our Market Watch on 5 May. We took profit in key outperformers, such as Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) – downgraded from Overweight to Core allocation – and rotated into the underperforming Europe ex-UK region (upgraded from Underweight to Core). We remain Overweight US equities, where the Q1 earnings season led to upward earnings revisions. Consensus US earnings growth sits at 22%/15% for 2026/2027.

Within AxJ, we retain our diversified preference. We are Overweight Taiwan for structural semiconductor growth exposure, Overweight China for the valuation discount and Overweight India for domestic driven growth.

We have a Core allocation to Japan, where expansionary fiscal plans are a positive offset to energy import sensitivities. We remain Underweight UK equities, which has relatively muted earnings growth heading into 2027.

North America equities – Preferred holding    Δ

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding     —

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Oil prices

UK equities – Less Preferred holding    ∇

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities – Core holding   —

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding    —

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings; India growth

+ China policy support

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

22 MAY 2026

Core scenario (soft landing, 60% probability): We assign a 60% probability that the Hormuz strait will reopen in the next few weeks, given the incentive on all sides to avoid an oil price shock. This should help economies achieve a soft landing this year. In this scenario, long-term inflation expectations should remain subdued. Hence, we believe rate markets are overly hawkish – policymakers are likely to largely look through the brief inflation spike and focus on the lagged growth impact of the oil shock. Hence, we expect the Fed, under new Chair Warsh, to cut rates by 25bps by year-end as focus turns to supporting growth. ECB is likely to deliver one, and BoJ two “insurance” hikes to counter inflation, while China eases to revive domestic consumption.

Downside risk (hard landing, 20% probability): We lower the risk of a hard landing from 30%, as a short-term spike in oil prices is unlikely to cause a recession, especially with soaring AI-focused investment and global defence spending supporting growth. A prolonged blockade of the Hormuz strait, or a stock/bond market downturn on inflation/debt concerns remain tail risks.Upside risk (no landing, 20% probability): If the Hormuz strait is reopened and global trade and investment pick up following the Trump-Xi meeting, there is a chance that US tax cuts, the wealth effect from booming equities and fiscal easing in Germany, China and Japan could revive “animal spirits”. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal or a defence spending boom can lift global growth.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding    ∇

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding     —

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding    —

22 MAY 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding    Δ

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding     Δ

22 MAY 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

Asia USD bonds – Core holding   —

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

22 MAY 2026

• We are Overweight gold and maintain our three- and 12-month price targets at USD 5,200/oz and USD 5,500/oz, respectively.
  
• We raise our three-month WTI oil price forecast to USD 90/bbl on expectations that full output normalisation will take time.
  

Oil

22 MAY 2026

Gold      Δ

22 MAY 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

+ Falling real yields

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

24 APRIL 2026

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