Press release
Global Focus 2026 – An uneasy calm
Growth to remain strong but with elevated risks
London – Standard Chartered Global Research (“SC Global Research”) believes that global growth in 2026 is set to remain strong at 3.4%, unchanged from 2025. In its yearly Global Focus look ahead at the world economy, it points out that this year’s growth has been better than feared as exporters front-loaded exports to the US and consumers remained resilient.
Steady headline growth, however, masks key shifts in growth drivers. For many economies, 2026 is likely to be a year of transition from monetary to fiscal policy, and from export-led to increasingly domestic, particularly investment-led, growth.
An uneasy calm exists as risks to the outlook remain high amid persistent trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical flash points, and fears of financial-market corrections – all of which point to potentially fat tails bringing higher probabilities of extreme outcomes.
Growth in 2025 has been driven by monetary policy support and export front-loading; 2026 is likely to see a shift towards fiscal policy and investment, while consumer demand will remain crucial. Most central banks globally are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles as disinflationary momentum slows and policy makers seek to maintain interest rate differentials with the Fed.
Turning to the outlook for major economies, SC Global Research raises its US growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% (from 1.7%), as it expects strong business investment and spending, supported by corporate tax cuts and the race for AI adoption. It also expects the labour market to start to recover in H2-2026 on loose financial conditions and strong domestic demand, and as firms adapt to higher tariff levels.
SC Global Research recently raised its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.6% from 4.3%. Fears that US trade policy would damage China’s exports have proved largely unfounded so far, and 2025 growth is on track to reach 4.9%. Export growth is likely to moderate in 2026 as front-loading fades, but it should remain supported by the recent US-China trade truce and ongoing diversification of export markets. Risks to trade relations with the US remain high, however, especially in the run-up to the US midterm elections.
The Euro-area growth forecast for 2026 has been raised marginally to 1.1% from 1.0% due to carryover effects. However, the region’s growth prospects are muted given trade pressures – both from US tariffs and increasing competition from China – and the uneven picture across euro-area economies. For Asia, growth in export-oriented economies has held up much better than feared in 2025 thanks to strong front-loading of exports to the US. It is expected that this front-loading activity will fade in 2026, implying less support for growth from the external sector. Political uncertainty may also weigh on growth in some countries, such as Thailand and the Philippines. As a result, Asia is one of the few regions where growth may moderate in 2026 versus 2025.
Madhur Jha, Global Economist & Head, Thematic Research, commented: “While the 2026 growth outlook is benign, it comes with elevated risks from multiple sources. Geopolitical risks abound, arising not just from key upcoming elections and ongoing conflicts, but also from the rise of alliances that aim to challenge the US-led world order.
“Not all risks are to the downside. AI-related productivity gains might start to filter through faster than currently expected, lifting growth not just in the US and China but also globally. While tariffs are unlikely to be lowered further, global trade growth could remain resilient as the diversification of trade partners allows other economies to gain a bigger share of trade-related economic gains.”
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For further information please contact:
Shaun Gamble
Group Media Relations
Standard Chartered
+44 7766 443662