Press release
Global Focus – Economic Outlook Q3 2024
Clouded by geo-economic uncertainty
London – Standard Chartered expect a soft landing for the global economy in H2-2024 as inflation slows and interest rates ease, following a quick succession of economic shocks in recent years.
The Bank’s Global Focus – Economic Outlook Q3-2024, which covers the outlook for 58 economies, key geopolitical issues, and financial market implications, forecasts broadly flat GDP-weighted global growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025; following the 3.2% achieved in 2023. This benign soft-landing scenario, however, could be put at risk with potential negative geopolitical surprises on the horizon.
Geopolitical events have played an increasingly important role in driving market moves, and 2024 has seen this trend accelerate with the heaviest election calendar in history. Standard Chartered expect political risk associated with the US election to continue to dominate the outlook for the global economy.
A further escalation of trade tensions following the US election in November is a key risk. This would have direct implications for China’s economy, where external demand has partly offset the ongoing property-market correction and weak domestic sentiment this year. It could also weigh on the outlook for ASEAN economies that rely heavily on China as a trading partner.
For others, rising US-China tensions could create new opportunities; Japan and Korea, for example, might see longer-term benefits from US efforts to exclude China from its IT supply chain. However, a universal tariff on US imports – which Donald Trump has pledged to impose if elected – would adversely affect all economies with US trade dependence. In such a scenario, financial markets would likely react negatively to the implications for both inflation and global growth.
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For further information please contact:
Hero Kurzeja
Group Media Relations
Standard Chartered
+44 7385 118 237