Standard Chartered’s Future of Trade Report: Faster Digitalisation Could Unlock US$2.8 Trillion in Annual Global Trade by 20312026 Report Highlights

2026 Report Highlights

• Faster digitalisation and AI adoption could help companies harness cost savings while tapping on new trade opportunity
• Surveyed companies reported a shift from ‘geographic reconfiguration’ to ‘refinement of supply chain strategies and capabilities’
• The treasury management function continues to transform from a resilience to a growth engine

Singapore – By 2031, digital acceleration could add US$2.8 trillion to international trade each year – equivalent to around US$7.6 billion per day.. This is 6.9% above baseline levels, with services trade benefitting particularly strongly, according to an illustrative scenario developed by Standard Chartered and Oxford Economics.

Published in Standard Chartered’s 2026 Future of Trade report, Navigating an age of structural uncertainty, the Digital Acceleration¹ scenario models the potential impact of lower trade frictions, stronger technology investment and faster adoption of artificial intelligence.

Based on a survey² of 2,100 senior corporate decision-makers across 27 markets, the report finds that businesses are adapting to a more complex trading environment by refining supply chains and building resilience. In doing so, they are creating greater demand for digital tools, AI and integrated financial infrastructure that can improve visibility, reduce friction and enable businesses to capture future trade opportunities.

“As businesses focus less on redrawing supply chains and more on increasing resilience, visibility and agility, investments in digital capabilities are becoming a critical source of competitive advantage,” said Roberto Hoornweg, CEO, Corporate & Investment Bank, Standard Chartered. “By combining digital tools, AI-enabled insights and more integrated treasury and supply-chain functions, clients can make faster decisions, respond more effectively to disruption and improve preparedness, flexibility and continuity.”

Faster digitalisation could turn trade complexity into commercial opportunity as corporates adapt to continued geopolitical disruption

• Four in five corporates report benefitting from investments in their digital capabilities3, while 83% say digital tools help them respond more quickly to supply-chain disruption. Digitally delivered services – including computer, cloud, cybersecurity, professional and other services delivered remotely across borders – are expanding rapidly. Exports grew 136% between 2016 and 2025, compared with 70% growth in total goods and services exports, and accounted for 14.7% of global exports in 2025, up from 10.6% in 2016.
• Under the Digital Acceleration scenario, services trade could rise 11.4% above baseline by 2031 – almost twice the projected 5.9% increase for goods – as better data flows, digital payments, interoperable systems and streamlined compliance reduce cross-border friction.
• AI is emerging as a key enabler of this shift, with 56% of corporates rating it highly relevant or transformational to advancing trade digitalisation. Expectations are highest in Technology, Media and Telecommunications and Energy, where 62% view AI as highly relevant or transformational. Amid continued uncertainty, businesses are using these capabilities to refine existing supply chains.

Supply chains are being reconfigured without necessarily being relocated

• While more than nine in 10 businesses expect to adjust their supply-chain activities over the next three to five years, around 60% anticipate neither entering nor exiting markets across sourcing, manufacturing and exporting activities.
• Instead, businesses are focused on making supply chains more resilient. Supplier-focused strategies are gaining momentum (+4.3pts), especially in the Americas (+8.7pts) and Greater China & North Asia (+6.8pts).
• Inventory management is also becoming more important (+2.9pts), with the strongest increases in ASEAN (+8.4pts) and the Middle East & Africa (+6.7pts).

Treasury is becoming the engine that converts resilience into growth

• As larger inventories, broader supplier networks and growing cross-border flows increase the need for digital tools, data visibility and AI-enabled decisions, treasury is taking on a more strategic role.
• Over the next three to five years, 37% of businesses plan to integrate treasury and supply-chain functions more closely, while the same proportion expects to adjust its treasury strategy. Currency-risk management is a priority treasury strategy for 57%, and one in three expects its foreign-exchange exposure to increase.
• Digital capabilities are helping businesses respond, with 82% of them saying digital tools improve visibility and forecasting across supply-chain and financial activities, and 74% saying digital treasury tools improve resilience in managing cash, liquidity and FX exposures during periods of uncertainty.
  

Ends

_{^[1] Digital Acceleration scenario
The scenario analysis assesses how faster trade digitalisation and greater geopolitical fragmentation could alter global trade patterns and macroeconomic outcomes through 2031. Each scenario is measured against Oxford Economics’ August 2026 baseline, allowing the effects on trade, GDP, inflation, prices and exchange rates to be isolated from the central outlook.}

_{The Digital Acceleration scenario converts survey evidence on adoption gaps and expected savings into reductions in cross-border trade costs. We combine country-level expectation with empirical findings from Bekkers et al. (2025) and OE bespoke structural-gravity econometric analysis to calibrate the size of iceberg trade cost shock for each country pairs. To ensure that the shocks are realistic, their scale is benchmarked trade-cost measures from the WTO Trade Cost Database.}

^{In the scenario, we measure the trade digitalisation opportunity as a net annual uplift to global trade compared to Oxford Economics’ baseline forecast. This impact is presented in terms of a single-year’s net gain in trade in 2031. The impacts of trade digitalisation build gradually over 2027 to 2031 and reaches its full effect in 2031.}

^{The modelling estimates this net uplift to global trade to peak at 6.9 per cent, equivalent to USD 2.8 trillion, by 2031. This means that international trade will be 6.9 per cent, or USD 2.8 trillion, higher than what it would be in the baseline scenario in 2031. It is not a cumulative build-up over 2027 to 2031, and not an annual gain in trade starting today. We expect this percentage uplift to persist beyond 2031, although its dollar value would shift as the baseline grows.}

_{^[2] Methodology}

_{This year’s Future of Trade is based on a survey of 2,100 senior corporate decision-makers from multinational companies across 27 markets, conducted by Oxford Economics on behalf of Standard Chartered between June and July 2026. The report combines survey findings with Oxford Economics scenario modelling to examine how accelerating digitalisation and increasing geopolitical fragmentation could shape global trade through 2031. The scenarios are illustrative and are intended to explore potential outcomes rather than provide forecasts.}

_{^[3] Digital Capabilities}

_{Our survey posed questions about 10 digital capabilities transforming trade, spanning core technologies such as automated payments and digital trade documentation to emerging solutions like digital currencies, tokenisation, and scenario modelling.}

For more information, please contact:

Celine Ng
Standard Chartered