Δ Overweight ∇ Underweight — Neutral
Bonds – at a glance —
25 SEPTEMBER 2026
Core scenario (soft landing, 45% probability): We have slightly reduced the probability of a soft landing from 50% by raising the odds of a ‘no-landing’. The global economy has picked up steam this summer, powered by AI investments in the US and Asia. This is reflected in robust upgrades to corporate earnings estimates and PMIs. Fiscal easing in Germany and Japan is supporting growth. Meanwhile, inflation has picked up amid higher energy prices due to a resurgent Middle East conflict. As a result, the Fed turned hawkish, hiking rates for the first time since 2023. It was joined by the ECB and BoJ – the first time all three major central banks hiked rates in the same month. We expect the Fed to hike twice more, the ECB once more and the BoJ thrice more by June 2027. Nevertheless, disinflation should return by next year as energy and tariff effects fade, enabling the Fed and the ECB to cut rates by Q3 2027. Meanwhile, China is likely to accelerate fiscal spending to revive domestic growth.
Upside risk (no landing, 30% probability): We raised the probability from 25% amid an acceleration in the AI-driven investment growth. If oil prices ease, US tax cuts, an AI-fuelled stock market boom and fiscal easing in Germany and Japan could boost “animal spirits” further. A global defence spending boom, led by the US and Europe, could also spur global growth.
Downside risk (25% probability): This tail risk scenario includes 15% chance of a stagflation unfolding if geopolitical conflicts worsen and oil stays above USD 120/bbl. We also assign a 10% chance to a recession, potentially caused by a more rapid pace of rate hikes to quell inflation, a stock market downturn negating the wealth effect, or a bond selloff due to fiscal concerns.
Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding ∇
25 SEPTEMBER 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ High credit quality
+ Attractive yields
The Bearish Case:
– High sensitivity to inflation
– Monetary policy
Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding —
25 SEPTEMBER 2026
The Bullish Case:
+ High credit quality
+ Improving valuations
The Bearish Case:
– Expected supply
– Especially in the US
Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding