Stay ahead with unmatched investment insights

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Equity – at a glance     Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

We downgrade global equities from Overweight to a Core allocation as we expect higher volatility in the near term. We expect this volatility to arise as equity market leadership broadens during the transition to a mid-cycle bull market. Equity returns will likely moderate from the 15-20% annualised range of the last few years but remain positive. We remain Overweight US and AxJ equities, which are expected to deliver the highest earnings growth in 2027 among the major regions.

Within AxJ, we remain Overweight Taiwan, given structural AI-driven growth, and upgrade India to Overweight, for diversified non-AI growth exposure. South Korea is a Core holding, with attractive valuations but extreme volatility. China is also a Core holding, with attractive valuations but lacking a positive catalyst. We are Underweight ASEAN, which has a weaker growth profile.

We maintain Japan as a Core holding as nominal growth supports broad-based earnings revisions. We also maintain a Core allocation to Europe ex-UK, which is enjoying an earnings recovery. We remain Underweight UK equities, given the market’s limited exposure to growth sectors.

North America equities – Preferred holding    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings growth

+ AI uptrend

The Bearish Case:

– US policy uncertainty

– Rising bond yields

Europe ex-UK equities – Core holding    —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Undemanding valuations

+ German fiscal spending

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Oil prices

UK equities – Less Preferred holding    ∇

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive valuations

+ Dividend yield

The Bearish Case:

– Stagflation risks

– US trade policy risks

Japan Equities – Core holding   —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Reasonable valuations

+ Rising dividends/share buybacks

The Bearish Case:

– JPY strength

– US trade policy

Asia ex-Japan equities – Core holding    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Earnings

+ Policy support

+ Easing oil prices

The Bearish Case:

– China growth concerns

– US trade policy

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Bonds – at a glance     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

Core scenario (soft landing, 45% probability): An economic soft landing remains our core scenario, with the global economy overcoming this year’s oil price shock thanks to a surge in AI investment in the US and Asia. Record wealth generation driven by the stock market rally is supporting US consumption. Fiscal easing in the US, Germany and Japan is supporting growth. Meanwhile, inflation has reaccelerated due to a rebound in fuel prices as the Middle East conflict drags on. Against this backdrop, the Fed, ECB and BoJ all hiked rates in the same month (in September) for the first time. Although all three subsequently paused in October, we expect the Fed to hike twice more, the ECB once more and the BoJ thrice more by June 2027. Nevertheless, we expect the energy and tariff effects on inflation to fade by H2 2027, enabling the Fed and the ECB to cut rates by Q3 2027. Meanwhile, China is likely to target credit easing and accelerate fiscal spending in H1 2027 to revive domestic growth.

Upside risk (no landing, 30% probability): We maintain the probability at 30% as AI-driven investment growth continues. There is a reasonable chance that lower oil prices next year, the AI-fuelled wealth boom and fiscal easing in Germany and Japan will boost ‘animal spirits’. A potential global defence spending boom, led by the US and Europe, could also lift global growth.

Downside risk (25% probability): We raised the risk of a recession to 15%, especially if central banks are forced to accelerate the pace of rate hikes to douse rising inflation. A stock market downturn negating the wealth effect or a bond sell-off due to fiscal concerns are other tail risks. We cut stagflation probability to 10% as we see low risk of oil prices sustaining above USD 120/bbl.

Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding    ∇

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Attractive yields

The Bearish Case:

– High sensitivity to inflation

– Monetary policy

Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ High credit quality

+ Improving valuations

The Bearish Case:

– Expected supply

– Especially in the US

Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding    —

30 OCTOBER 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Low rate sensitivity

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to growth

– Credit quality risks

Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding    Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Attractive yield

+ Sensitive to US rates

The Bearish Case:

– EM credit quality

– US trade policy risks

Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding     —

30 OCTOBER 2026

+ Attractive yield

+ Benefit from USD weakness

The Bearish Case:

– US trade policy risks

– Inflation risks

– FX risk

Asia USD bonds – Core holding   —

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Moderate yield

+ Low volatility

The Bearish Case:

– Sensitive to China growth

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Commodities – at a glance      

30 OCTOBER 2026

• We remain Overweight gold, but trim our three- and 12-month price targets to USD 4,350/oz and 4,700/oz, respectively.
  
• We retain our three- and 12-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil forecast at USD 100/bbl and USD 80/bbl, respectively.
  

Oil

30 OCTOBER 2026

Gold      Δ

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Portfolio hedge

+ Central bank demand

The Bearish Case:

– Resilient USD

– Elevated real yields

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Alternatives – at a glance     

30 OCTOBER 2026

The Bullish Case:

+ Diversifier characteristics

The Bearish Case:

– Equity, corporate bond volatility

Δ Overweight     ∇ Underweight    — Neutral

Multi-Asset – at a glance     

30 OCTOBER 2026

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