Economies growing at 7 per cent or more each year will roughly double in size in a decade. In the 2020s, we believe just seven countries will make it into the 7 per cent Club, and most of them will be in Asia.
Our Global Chief Economist, David Mann, talks us through his forecast:
- The countries in the 7 per cent Club in the 2020s are likely to be: India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire
- China has exited the Club, after being a member for almost four decades, reflecting both a slowdown in economic growth and a progression towards higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain
- With young labour forces and accelerating structural reforms, India and Bangladesh will likely dominate the 7 per cent Club in 2020s
- Some bright spots to watch out for from the ASEAN region, are Vietnam (with its manufacturing and export growth) and the Philippines (with its greater infrastructure spending)
- Sustained reforms would help Ethiopia and Côte d'Ivoire to extend their stay in the 7 per cent Club into the 2020s
- 7 per cent Club members tend to have national savings rates of at least 20-25 per cent of GDP