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House Views across asset classes
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
AS AT 24 April 2026
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Equity
  • North America
  • Europe ex-UK
  • United Kingdom (UK)
  • Japan
  • Asia ex-Japan
Bonds
  • DM IG Government bonds
  • DM IG Corporate bonds
  • DM HY Corporate bonds
  • EM USD Government bonds
  • EM LCY Government bonds
  • Asia USD bonds
Commodities
  • Crude Oil
  • Gold
Alternatives
    Multi-Asset
      Equity – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026

      We remain Overweight global equities. Although the Middle East conflict remains volatile, so far we remain comfortable with our expectation for mid-teens earnings growth in 2026 driving global equities higher. We remain Overweight US equities, where the heavyweight technology sector continues to benefit from AI investments. With the US Q1 26 earnings season underway, we look for corporate guidance to validate resilient fundamentals. We are also Overweight Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities, where technology is the largest sector and is also a beneficiary of AI capex.

      Within AxJ, we have a diversified preference. Our Overweight stance on Taiwan reflects our positive view on semiconductor-driven earnings growth, while our Overweight on China reflects an attractive valuation re-rating potential amid resilient growth and policy support. Meanwhile, our Overweight on India reflects strong domestic growth and is less correlated to the AI theme.

      We have a Core allocation to Japan, where expansionary fiscal plans are a positive offset to energy import sensitivities. We remain Underweight Europe ex-UK and UK equities, which have relatively muted earnings growth.

      North America equities – Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Earnings growth
      + AI uptrend
      The Bearish Case:
      – US policy uncertainty
      Europe ex-UK equities – Less Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Undemanding valuations
      + German fiscal spending
      The Bearish Case:
      – US trade policy risks
      UK equities – Less Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive valuations
      + Dividend yield
      The Bearish Case:
      – Stagflation risks
      – US trade policy risks
      Japan Equities – Less Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Reasonable valuations
      + Rising dividends/share buybacks
      The Bearish Case:
      – JPY strength
      – US trade policy
      Asia ex-Japan equities – Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Earnings; India growth
      + China policy support
      The Bearish Case:
      – China growth concerns
      – US trade policy
      Bonds – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026

      Core scenario (soft landing, 60% probability): We expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to traffic in the next few weeks, given the constraints on both the US and Iran which argue against a prolonged blockade. This is likely to sustain our base scenario of an economic soft landing this year. While near-term inflation is likely to rise with elevated oil prices, an early resolution should keep long-term inflation expectations in check, allowing central banks to focus on fundamentals. As near-term inflation rises, we expect the Fed to hold rates in H1 but eventually cut by 25bps in H2 as focus turns to reviving the job market. The ECB is likely to hike rates once and the BoJ twice to counter inflation, while China eases policy to encourage consumption-led growth.

      Downside risk (hard landing, 30% probability): We raise the risk of a hard landing from 25% if the Middle East conflict leaves oil prices significantly higher for longer, delaying Fed rate cuts and negatively impacting real incomes and consumption. A stock market downturn hurting investor confidence and/or a bond selloff on inflation and/or debt concerns are other tail risks.

      Upside risk (no landing, 10% probability): In the event of a swift resolution in the Middle East, there is still a chance that US tax and Fed rate cuts, fiscal easing in Germany, China and Japan and a potential rollback of US tariffs could revive animal spirits. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal, a US-China grand bargain or EU-wide defence spending can potentially lift global growth.   

      Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Less Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Attractive yields
      The Bearish Case:
      – High sensitivity to inflation
      – Monetary policy
      Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Improving valuations
      The Bearish Case:
      – Expected supply
      – Especially in the US
      Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026
      + Attractive yield
      + Low rate sensitivity
      The Bearish Case:
      – Sensitive to growth
      – Credit quality risks
      Emerging Market USD government bonds – Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive yield
      + Sensitive to US rates
      The Bearish Case:
      – EM credit quality
      – US trade policy risks
      Emerging Market Local currency government bonds – Preferred holding
      24 APRIL 2026
      + Attractive yield
      + Benefit from USD weakness
      The Bearish Case:
      – US trade policy risks
      – Inflation risks
      Asia USD bonds – Core holding
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Moderate yield
      + Low volatility
      The Bearish Case:
      – Sensitive to China growth
      Commodities – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026
      • We remain Overweight gold but trim our 3- and 12-month gold price targets to USD 5,200/oz and USD 5,500/oz, respectively
      • We raise our three-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast to USD 80-90/bbl on expectations that full output normalisation will take time.
      Oil
      24 APRIL 2026

      Gold
      24 APRIL 2026

      The Bullish Case:
      + Portfolio hedge
      + Central bank demand
      + Falling real yields
      The Bearish Case:
      – Resilient USD
      Alternatives – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026
      The Bullish Case:
      + Diversifier characteristics
      The Bearish Case:
      – Equity, corporate bond volatility
      Multi-Asset – at a glance
      24 APRIL 2026

      FX views (12-month outlook)
      • USD
      • EUR
      • JPY
      • GBP
      • AUD
      • ASIA EX-JAPAN
      24 APRIL 2026
      We have revised down our three-month forecast for the US Dollar Index (DXY) to 96 from 100, with our 12-month forecast unchanged at 96. The Middle East conflict, which led to the recent oil price spikes, has highlighted the US’ status as a leading energy producer and exporter, leading investors to price in the improvement in their terms of trade from the rise in WTI oil price. Assuming the current conflict broadly de-escalates in the coming 3 months and energy prices moderate, the outlook points to further underperformance of the USD, and our 12-month target illustrates that most of the adjustment is expected to be front-loaded. However, the risk of a sudden resurgence in hostilities remains a persistent threat, sustaining investor caution and causing currency pairs to largely trade sideways in the near term. Consequently, despite expectations of delayed Fed rate cuts, once tensions in the Middle East subside, this should contribute to a depreciation of the USD.

      In our view, significant policy actions by major central banks have already been largely factored into market expectations for year-end 2026, with the DXY likely to stabilise around 96 unless fresh catalysts arise. However, this outlook faces several risks, including a renewed surge in inflation, a shift towards a more hawkish approach by the Fed or further geopolitical shocks. Any of these developments could reignite demand for the USD.
      The Bullish Case:
      + Short term safety
      The Bearish Case:
      Falling yields
      likely underperform vs major asset classes
      24 APRIL 2026
      Bullish EUR/USD: We expect the ECB to maintain a cautious yet hawkish approach, with one rate hike by year-end 2026. We see safe-haven demand for the USD reducing, prompting currency flows back towards Europe. The EUR has emerged as the second-best performing G10 currency over the past month, defying predictions that the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict would negatively impact Europe’s economy.
      The Bullish Case:
      + Fiscal support
      The Bearish Case:
      Weak consumer and business confidence
      24 APRIL 2026
      USD/JPY rangebound with bearish bias. The upside risk is capped by intervention risks near the 160 level. We see it skewed towards downside risks stemming from the JPY’s extreme fundamental undervaluation and an expected narrowing of yield differentials, potentially triggering a corrective rally. Inflation expectations strengthen H2 rate hike hopes.
      The Bullish Case:
      + Bearish positioning looks overstretched
      The Bearish Case:
      JPY’s safe-haven demand
      Japan’s fiscal health
      24 APRIL 2026
      Revise GBP/USD to bullish: The hawkish shift in BoE policy expectations is likely to support the pair. Markets are increasingly pricing in rate hikes to combat inflation, restoring the currency’s yield advantage. Additionally, GBP is viewed as fundamentally undervalued and oversold against the EUR based on real rate differentials.
      The Bullish Case:
      + UK’s resilience to US tariff risks
      The Bearish Case:
      Soft UK labour market
      24 APRIL 2026
      AUD/USD upside remains: The pair is likely supported by a hawkish RBA, which remains more restrictive than its peers to combat persistent inflation. This supports a widening yield advantage. Meanwhile, improving Chinese economic data and potential stimulus measures bolster demand for Australian commodity exports, providing a strong fundamental tailwind.
      The Bullish Case:
      + China’s stimulus plan
      + Strong gold prices
      The Bearish Case:
      Easing Australia business confidence
      24 APRIL 2026
      Bearish USD/CNH: The PBoC could continue to guide the CNH via strong daily fixings. Potential Chinese fiscal stimulus and improving economic data could attract capital inflows, while a narrowing US-China yield spread as the Fed pivots would further pressure the pair.

      Bearish USD/CHF: The Swiss growth outlook is expected to improve if a trade agreement is ultimately reached and supported by resilient domestic demand. The SNB is expected to shift towards a hawkish stance to restore policy flexibility by year-end 2026.

      The Monetary Authority of Singapore has tightened its monetary policy, strengthening the SGD and combating rising inflation. The sustained investor confidence is reflected in strong foreign direct investment (FDI), providing long-term structural support to the SGD.

      Remain bearish USD/INR: India now faces only a 10% tariff under Section 122 following a US trade deal and US Supreme Court action, which should support exports and manufacturing recovery. With growth headwinds easing, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain rates for an extended period.

      Bearish USD/MYR: FDI inflows into data centres, driven by the AI trend and Malaysia’s strong growth prospects, support a positive outlook for the MYR.

      Bearish USD/KRW: The Bank of Korea’s higher consumer inflation forecast is positive for the KRW. With Asia’s heavyweight chipmakers riding the AI wave and attracting fresh global capital, we see the KRW recovering its recent losses.
      USD/SGD
      The Bullish Case:
      + SGD vulnerable to slowing global growth
      + SGD NEER falls with cooling inflation
      The Bearish Case:
      Resilient Singapore domestic growth
      Stable CNH
      USD/INR
      The Bullish Case:
      + RBI to continue to absorb capital inflows
      + Broad USD rebound
      The Bearish Case:
      US fiscal/debt risk
      India’s fiscal boost supporting growth
      USD/MYR
      The Bullish Case:
      + Replenish FX reserves
      + Broad USD rebound
      + Malaysia policy rate cut
      The Bearish Case:
      Resilient GDP growth
      USD/KRW
      The Bullish Case:
      + Korea’s vulnerability to global growth
      + Broad USD rebound
      The Bearish Case:
      Export growth and tourism inflows
      Cheap value; inflows

      Outlook 2026
      Outlook 2026: Invest with clarity amid shifting currents
      Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer, shares the top 3 key investment themes for 2026.
      Read our report
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Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered UAE (“SC UAE”) is licensed by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. SC UAE is licensed by Securities and Commodities Authority to practice Promotion Activity. SC UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.